The Week 6 Sunday slate wraps up with a matchup between the Bengals and Giants, and Geoff Ulrich is here with his best bets for Sunday Night Football:

Sunday Night Football Week 6 - Giants vs. Bengals

Sunday Night Football in Week 6 features two of the more intriguing teams in the NFL. The Bengals may be one of the best 1-4 NFL teams in history as they’ve now lost two heartbreaking games (which they should have won) to two of the top teams in the AFC, and also have a QB in Joe Burrow who is playing at an MVP-caliber level. Burrow comes into this game leading the league in passing TDs and is now second in EPA +CPOE composite rankings (per RBSDM.com).

On the flip side, we have the Giants, who sit at 2-3 after a shock win over the Seahawks in Week 5. New York could easily have a winning record as well, as they played the Cowboys extremely close in Week 4 and had a chance to win that game late. They also lost to Washington by a FG earlier in the season.

If New York can get by the Bengals they’ll be 3-3 and have a showdown with the Eagles looming in Week 7. For the Bengals, they’re already in a must-win spot, but do enter this week as favorites and still have two divisional games left against the AFC North-leading Steelers.

So whose season gets back on track this Sunday night? We’ll cover that and more as we dive into the spread, total, and best props to target below.

Injury notes:

Bengals

Giants

The injury report for both teams is somewhat short, but significant. The Giants will be without two of their most talented players in Nabers and Thibodeaux, which is problematic for a team that doesn’t have a lot of talent to begin with. New York managed to get without Nabers last week but winning twice without their star rookie is going to be a tall order. 

The Bengals look like they dodged a bullet as both Chase Brown and Zack Moss seem ready to play. Brown has run the ball very effectively for the Bengals of late and gives them an extra dynamic they don’t have when Zack Moss is on the field. It’s been reported that Brown is expected to play (via head coach Zac Taylor) so their main injury concern is in the secondary on defense where they could be without two corners.

Betting Breakdown for Sunday Night Football - Giants vs. Bengals

  • Spread: Bengals -3.5 (-110; bet365) 
  • Total: O/U 47.0

Spread and Total

I took the under on this total on this game early in the week and placed it in our Free NFL Bets Tracker when it was at 49.0, as the nearly 50.0-point total seemed like an overreaction to the Bengals' recent games and their defensive woes. The number has come down two points since with bettors concerned that New York can do enough without Malik Nabers to get this game to 48 or more points. 

I’d like to see some buyback and for the number to get back above 47.0 again before playing the under now, but I do expect we’ll see the Bengals' defense stiffen up here after getting pummeled by an elite offense last week. The Giants can’t run the ball like Baltimore and are also a clear under team (4-1 to the under this season) who have limited options to turn to with Nabers out.

The Bengals are also the team I’d prefer to play on the spread, even with the number moving to -3.5. Cincinnati may be 1-4 but they covered against KC and pushed last week against Baltimore. They also covered on the road against Carolina after the heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs.

The loss of Nabers is also huge for the Giants. They’re only 29th in EPA per rush and are not likely to be able to run the ball as effectively as the Ravens did last week. Nabers was often used as an extension of the run game so with him out, it will be easier for the Bengals' D-Line to hone in and get stops. With Joe Burrow playing so well there are just too many scenarios where the Giants get down early and then can’t catch up, allowing for a Bengals cover, and potentially one by margin.

I break down the best props for this game below.

Best Bets For Sunday Night Football - Giants vs Bengals

Chase Brown Longest Reception Over 8.5 yards (-125; bet365)

With Brown looking healthy enough to play I think this makes for a good spot to target some of his receiving props, which have not risen as much as his rushing props have over the past two weeks. Brown has ceded more passing game work to Moss, but he’s also seen three targets in each of his last three games and you can tell the Bengals understand his explosiveness in space is a weapon they can and need to exploit defenses with.

The Giants have also been one of the worst teams at defending RBs out of the backfield, allowing 8.71 yards per catch to opposing RBs, and the fifth-most receiving yards to the position overall. Brown’s total for longest reception is lower than the Giants' average catch allowed this week and is also 4 yards less than Moss’, which in itself, makes it a good target.

I’d venture to guess this is the spot where we finally see Brown break out as a receiver, making his longest catch prop a good one to attack with an over play on Sunday night.

Jalin Hyatt Over 19.5 rec yards (-110; bet365)

  • 50+ rec yards: +600 (bet365)
  • 75+ rec yards: +1600 (bet365)

Game flow removed Hyatt from getting any work last week, as New York was up for most of the game vs Seattle and had some special teams plays go their way that killed their time of possession. This week could be very different though, as Hyatt and the Giants will face a Bengals team that has been great at front running this week, but also enters this game with a banged-up secondary.

Over their last three games, Cincinnati has allowed 7.7 yards per attempt and ranks 27th in success rate per dropback. They allowed Terry McLaurin to go for 100 yards against them on just four catches in Week 3 and last week both Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers got to 50+ yards vs them in the OT loss.

Hyatt may not be a superb route runner but he’s fast and only needs one ball thrown his way to clear his over, and potentially some of his alt lines. You may not remember it, but last year Hyatt went for 75+ yards in a game three times and in two of those games, he only caught two passes. 

With Nabers out, New York operating with a skeleton crew-like receiving core, and the odds on his alternative lines at massive odds, this is as good a time as any to bet on him coming down with a long pass or two. If he does, he’s likely to blow his regular total out of the water and potentially cash some of his bigger alternative lines in the process.