Geoff Ulrich is here with his best bets for Sunday Night Football to explore whether Justin Fields can down the Cowboys:

We have a matchup between two of the league’s premier teams in the Cowboys and Steelers this week. Pittsburgh comes in at 3-1 after losing their first game of the season 27-24 last week, in a game where they came back from multiple scores numerous times to nearly pull off the improbable comeback.

Sunday Night Football: Steelers vs. Cowboys

Justin Fields threw for 312 yards (the second 300+ yard game of his career) and continued his excellent play, throwing for 9.12 yards per attempt, while adding 55 rushing yards. Russell Wilson does look to be mostly healthy but, for now, the Steelers are sticking with Fields. Fields has played excellent, but the Steelers continue to play possum in terms of committing to him as a starter. If he plays well again (and wins) this week, we may see them soften their stance a bit.

On the flip side of this game is the Cowboys, who are coming in at 2-2, but may be the most unconvincing 2-2 team in the league. They barely squeaked by the Giants 20-15 and lost two of their most important defenders in the process; with DeMarcus Lawrence getting placed on IR this week, and Micah Parsons already being ruled out for this game.

The Cowboys have regressed on both sides of the ball this season as they come in ranked just 20th in EPA per play on offense and are dead last in EPA per rush on defense.

Dallas has already beaten an NFC North team on the road this season in Cleveland, but the Steelers have surprisingly been far more efficient than their rivals on offense this year. They also enter this matchup, far less healthy than they were against the Browns.

So can Dallas pull off a second road win, or do the Steelers keep up their torrid pace and maintain control of the NFC North? Let’s dive into the best spread, total, and prop bets for this Sunday Night showdown below.

Sunday Night Football Injury Notes

Steelers

Cowboys

Betting Breakdown - Steelers vs. Cowboys

  • Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-120; bet365)
  • Total: O/U 44.5

This line was set at Cowboys -1.0 before Week 4, but has moved in the other direction with the Steelers now set as -2.5, with lines as short as -120 at some shops.

That would be a fairly significant move most weeks that may be worth fading, but as you saw above, given the injury news on the Cowboys' side, the move is somewhat warranted.

Steelers vs. Cowboys Spread and Total Best Bets

On top of losing both Lawrence and Parsons, the Cowboys have now listed Trevon Diggs as questionable with an ankle injury, and Caelen Carson also grabbed a questionable tag after missing last week. That could leave Andrew Booth as their top corner, the same man who got roasted by both Wan’Dale Robinson (11 rec, 71 yards) and Malik Nabers (12 rec, 115 yards) last week. Even if Diggs plays, he’s unlikely to be 100%, making this a potentially great spot for George Pickens to post his second massive game in a row.

You also have Justin Fields going against a thin D-Line that allowed Lamar Jackson to rush for 87 yards and a TD earlier in the season.

As much as I dislike chasing steam, the line movement here is more than warranted with the Fields playing well, the Cowboys offense struggling, and their defense in tatters. They were lucky to be let off the hook last week by Daniel Jones, who couldn’t put together a late drive to win the game but seem unlikely to get that kind of treatment this week from Fields, who nearly pulled off a miracle comeback last week.

I like the Steelers at anything under -120 (-2.5) or better in this spot and feel like we could see a lot of 3.0s pop up by kickoff.

The total has moved upwards since opening at 43.0 and with Dallas’ defensive troubles, this is also a trend I am not interested in fading.

Pittsburgh tends to be a straight under team, but Dallas' defensive issues worry me too much, as does the explosiveness of Fields as a rusher and his top receiver George Pickens. If this drops back down to 43.5, I may look to play the over but otherwise, I would pass at 44.0.

I break down a couple of props below. 

Best Player Prop Bets for Steelers vs. Cowboys Sunday Night Football

Jake Ferguson Over 44.5 rec yards (-110; bet365)

The Cowboys will be without Brandin Cooks in this game, which should only mean more balls forced in Jake Ferguson’s general direction. Ferguson has become the Cowboy's de facto number two receiver this year with 13 catches on 18 targets over his last two starts.

Over his last two games, Ferguson’s posted an increased route rate and a season-high target rate of 27%.

 

Ferguson faces a Steelers defense this week with great outside corners, but who are a little more vulnerable over the middle. Our projections have Ferguson at 50.0 yards for the week with a very small edge to his over, but I think this spot does have a little more upside than usual with the Cowboys' defense so banged up, and Cooks out.

I’ve locked in the over on his 44.5-yard total for now in our Free Bet Tracker, but you could look to same-game parlay Ferguson’s receptions and yards or play some of his alternative lines in this spot.

I do expect his yardage total may rise as we get closer to game time as more people become aware of the Cooks news, so we should get some decent closing line value at the very least.

George Pickens Longest Reception Over 22.5 yards (-110; bet365) 

This is setting up as a cherry spot for George Pickens with both of Dallas’ top two cornerbacks banged up. Trevon Diggs’ addition to the injury report mid-week is troublesome for Dallas, to say the least, and he’s coming off a terrible game where he consistently got beat by rookie Malik Nabers; who was open on nearly every route.

Pickens is another elite WR, capable of getting open on short and long routes alike, who is likely to give this unit trouble and is coming in off his best game of the year. While I’m certainly fine with playing some regular Pickens overs (yards, receptions, etc), his longest reception prop stands out as a nice way to play this matchup.

He’s gone over this easily in three of four games this season and the Cowboys have allowed big plays in the secondary all year, with Rashid Shaheed, Nelson Agholor, and Malik Nabers all beating them for plays of 30-plus yards in the last three weeks.

Pickens seems likely to add to that list here and deal out more pain to this Dallas unit.