It's the last game of the football season and our last chance to bet on football for quite some time (outside of 8-man leagues and 110-yard fields of course). 

With two weeks to prepare for Super Bowl LVIII, we’ll be building up to the big game with a variety of bets and ways you can think about investing in this Chiefs vs. 49ers matchup. 

For this week, I’ve focused mainly on looking at some less popular player prop markets that I think represent solid betting opportunities. With a lot of lines likely to move (as we get closer to the game), jumping on any perceived edges in these more illiquid markets early could get us some good closing line value by kick-off. 

We can’t feed our families on closing line value, but over the long term, it’s always in our best interest to be early on a line (that we think may move in our favor) rather than late. 

The first round of Super Bowl LVIII best bets are below.

You can tail all three of the following bets at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below with promo code FANTASYLIFE and place your first bet of just $5 or more!

Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 13.5 longest reception (-115, BetMGM) 

  • 50+ receiving yards (+290, BetMGM)
  • Longest reception of the game (+1000, DraftKings)

I didn’t necessarily enter this week wanting to bet Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) overs. In fact, if anything, I initially thought this might be a good time to short him after his heavily replayed end-of-game catch last week against Baltimore. 

However, as we look into this matchup and how the Chiefs will likely operate in this game, I do like the chance for Valdes-Scantling to come down with one or more big plays again for the Chiefs. 

First, let’s look at MVS’s usage from the Chiefs' first two playoff matchups. While he had just a 56% route rate against Buffalo, MVS also saw four targets and came down with two catches of 30+ yards in that game. The Bills made that game a back-and-forth affair, and the Chiefs responded by airing it out a little more to MVS, who rewarded their trust in him. 

Last week, MVS only saw two targets (both of which he converted for catches), but the Chiefs jumped out to a big lead and were playing in poor conditions—against a Ravens offense that was throwing up on itself most of the game. What is significant is that MVS saw his route rate jump to a season-high 96% in that game and that he again rewarded the Chiefs' trust in him by coming down with the game-clinching pass on the final drive. 

The conditions this week will obviously be ideal given the domed stadium in Vegas, and while I don’t necessarily expect Kansas City to start the game by airing it out, certainly this is a better spot for a breakout game from a downfield speedster like MVS. 

Further, the 49ers secondary hasn’t been at the top of their game of late. CB Ambry Thomas (ankle) is banged up and had a brutal game against Green Bay, who completed multiple big plays to Romeo Doubs and Bo Melton. The 49ers also allowed catches of 20+ yards to both Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams against the Lions. 

I’ll even take this one step further as well and mention that MVS has a history of torching the 49ers. He went for 108 yards against them as a rookie back in 2018 and put up a 3-111 line against them in 2022, recording catches of 40, 57, and 14 yards. 

In six games against them for his career, he’s gone for over 50 yards in four of those games and averaged 2.4 catches and 66.6 yards, per game. 

It’s safe to say that I like betting the over on his longest reception prop this week (he’s gone over the 13.5 mark in 10 of 18 games played this season). However, at the top I mentioned a couple of other ways to bet MVS as well. 

The alternate line at 50+ yards is worth considering just given how he’s excelled of late and his history against the 49ers. However, the +1000 available at DraftKings for him to have the longest reception of the game is intriguing as well. If not for one Zay Flowers busted coverage last week, MVS would have recorded the longest reception in back-to-back Chiefs games. 

If you're interested in adding a couple of longshot single plays to your bets this week, looking at MVS to have the longest reception in this game (+1000 or bigger), or even to lead the game in receiving yards (+2500 or bigger), would both be at or near the top of my list. 

Brock Purdy under 126.5 passing yards (first half) (-115, BetMGM)

  • Play to: 124.5 (-110)

Let’s start with some stats.

Purdy averaged 9.3 yards per attempt this regular season but averaged just 8.4 yards per attempt (on 251 attempts) in the first half of all his combined starts. In the second half of games, he was better.  Purdy attempted 193 passes and averaged 11.3 yards per attempt across 16 second halves. Being down late in games leads to more passes downfield, but of course, the 49ers weren’t down late very often this season. 

Moreover, while the 49ers have been down at the half in each of their first two playoff games, Purdy’s first-half stats haven’t improved; in fact, they’ve gotten worse. He went 7/15 for 93 yards against the Lions (6.2 YPA) and was just 10/16 for 125 yards against Green Bay (7.8 yards per attempt). 

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Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) looks to pass the ball against the Detroit Lions during the first half of the NFC Championship football game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs will be the best secondary he’s faced this postseason and just held the likely MVP Lamar Jackson to a 5/12, 67 yards first-half line last weekend. 

Finally, when you look at how the 49ers will likely approach this game—and have approached most games this year—fading a big first half by Purdy becomes an even more intriguing proposition. The Chiefs' rush defense is their biggest liability (28th in rush EPA this season), and after his team has gotten off to poor starts in each of his first two playoff games, you know Kyle Shanahan would like nothing better than to run Christian McCaffrey 20 times in the first half and take out any chance of a Patrick Mahomes big play or a Purdy INT/fumble that puts him in another hole. 

We could always get burned by a big screen pass or another Aiyuk circus grab, but I expect the 49ers to start this game cautiously and for a fresh Chiefs defense to take away the big downfield play, much like they did against Baltimore and Buffalo, early on. Throw in the fact that the Chiefs' offense has started well the past two games and dominated time of possession in the first half, and Purdy’s first-half under looks very playable down to 124.5 yards. 

Isiah Pacheco more rush yards than Christian McCaffrey (+150, BetMGM)

  • Play to: +140

You can find this prop on BetMGM under the “Player section.” While the Chiefs' rush defense isn’t necessarily a bad matchup for McCaffrey, it’s the 49ers' defense that has looked like the worse unit of late. They allowed 6.2 yards per carry to the Lions' between-the-tackles banger in David Montgomery and have ceded 5.34 yards per carry to opposing RBs in the playoffs to date. 

The 49ers' inability to stop the run of late has also limited McCaffrey’s chances to pile up the carries. He was held to just 17 totes against Green Bay and did manage 20 against Detroit, but still was outrushed by his opponent in David Montgomery (who took 5 fewer carries). Given how well the Chiefs' offense has operated the last two weeks, it’s certainly possible a similar scenario plays out this week. 

Further, while both RBs have technically been on the injury report (or in the news with injury issues), it feels like Pacheco is the one simply resting some general soreness, while McCaffrey (shoulder) may be the one more at risk of aggravating something in-game. 

Regardless of how you view the injury situation (we don’t have a ton of information on McCaffrey's shoulder right now), both of our projection analysts at Fantasy Life have Pacheco within 2.0 carries of McCaffrey (aggregate 18.9 vs 17.3). And with the +150 odds in play (40% implied probability), and the way these teams have trended in the playoffs, I like taking Pacheco to outrush his primary counterpart in this spot, something he’s easily accomplished in all three of the Chiefs' playoff starts this season. 

We’ll be back next week for another round of Super Bowl best bets, in which I’ll break down more props, some alternate line targets, and a same-game parlay. For now, keep watching our FREE bet tracker for more bets from the Fantasy Life betting crew as they come in. 

If you’re looking for pick’em and TD props, you can keep watching for those at my author page as they’ll be dropping sometime next week as well. 

Best bets