Welcome to the best bets article for Super Wild Card Weekend.

Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.

Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below. 

I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up. 

If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward.

Texans vs Browns

Best Bet: Browns -2.0 (-110, bet365)

  • Play to: Browns -2.5 (-110)

I do think this game will be a lot closer than the first meeting between these two teams—when Joe Flacco threw for over 300 yards and 8.76 yards per attempt—but at under a FG it’s hard not to side with the Browns. As discussed in the Betting Life Newsletter this Monday: “starters with postseason experience are 35-17-1 ATS and 36-17 ML against QBs making their first playoff start.”

Houston jumped out on the Colts last week and hung on for dear life at the end, but I'm not sure the Browns will afford them the same kind of luxury. And if the Texans' offense struggled to close things out against the Colts' defense (19th defensive EPA), then how will they manage against the Browns (1st defensive EPA)? 

As long as this stays under three, riding with Cleveland looks like the play.

You can tail Njoku on bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $1!

Prop: David Njoku over 54.5 receiving yards (-120, BetMGM)

Even with his prop now in the mid-50s, this seems extremely low for Njoku. The Cleveland TE has averaged 7 catches, 93.25 yards, and 1.0 TDs over his last four full games. What makes this an even better spot to be bullish on Njoku is the matchup against Houston, a team that allowed the second-most receptions and third-most yards to opposing TEs this year. 

I wrote about Njoku being at a great price in the anytime TD market, but his yardage prop in this spot looks worth betting as well. You have to figure the Texans—who got eviscerated for 265 yards by Amari Cooper in Week 16—will be focusing more of their coverage on the Browns' wideout and potentially leaving Njoku as the primary target for Flacco in this contest.

Texans vs. Browns SGP: +700 (DraftKings)

Keeping this one very simple. Njoku looks to be in a prime spot to carry the Browns' offense and potentially have a massive day. You could add an over or under on the total if you wanted to get this up above +1000, but hitting the +700 with an anytime TD leg already involved is enough for me, especially given how heavily correlated a Njoku TD would be with a Browns win. 

Same game parlay

Chiefs vs Dolphins 

Best Bet: Under 44.0 points (-110, bet365)

  • Play to: 43.5 (-110)

The weather this Saturday night is going to make this the coldest game of the season. The highs are expected to be around 5 F and winds will also be whipping up to 15 mph. That’s really cold and definitely at a level where it can affect passing game efficiency. As per the Monday Betting Life newsletter, unders have gone 15-5-1 since 2003 in all playoff games that have had winds of 10+ mph and freezing temperatures (no higher than 32 degrees Fahrenheit). 

Throw in the fact that the under in Chiefs games is 12-5 this season—and is 7-1 at games played in Kansas City—betting the under looks extremely appealing from all angles. 

Prop: Durham Smythe over 18.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill being banged up has certainly helped Smythe from a targeting perspective of late, but he’s also acted as a solid outlet for Tua Tagovailoa, converting his last 15 targets in a row into catches. I doubt the Dolphins or Tagovailoa go away from that kind of consistency in this win-or-go-home game, especially given the weather conditions they’ll be playing in. 

Overall, Smythe has cleared this target easily in each of the last four games and could be in a decent spot from a game flow perspective with the Dolphins currently +4.5 underdogs.

You can tail Smythe on BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Chiefs vs Dolphins SGP: +1900 (DraftKings)

We went a little bigger in the second Saturday game. Negatively correlating the under on the total with a Kelce TD gets us a nice boost, and then using our Smythe props with a Tagovailoa interception (he’s thrown 22 INTs in 25 career road starts) gets us the rest of the way to a solid +1900 SGP. 

Same game parlay

Bills vs Steelers 

Best Bet: Steelers +10.0 (-110, BetMGM)

  • Play to: +10.0 (-120)

Mike Tomlin is inevitable. The Steelers' head coach is 38-21-2 ATS as an underdog when facing above .500 SU teams for his career (per the Action Network). Yes, his playoff record size isn’t as rosy, but it’s also a very small sample. In these kinds of spots his teams generally outperform, and this week in particular, he has an advantage with the weather that his team should be able to exploit. 

Highs of 23 F and winds of 20mph or greater are expected for this game, making it likely to be a run-heavy, low-volume passing affair. The Steelers are also running the ball well. They’re 12th in rush success rate since Week 12 and will be facing a Bills defense that is just 24th in EPA per rush this season. 

Despite their struggles this season, the Steelers are still 5-3 ATS on the road and are 3-0 ATS with Mason Rudolph as QB. It feels gross, but in what could be a very ugly game, I’d feel better taking the 10.0 points with Pittsburgh. 

Prop: Najee Harris anytime TD +200 / first TD scorer +1000

  • Play to: +185 | +950

I think these are very fair odds we are getting for Harris to find the endzone. Yes, the conditions will be ugly, but ugly is what the Steelers do best, and Harris managed to find the end zone last week in terrible conditions as well—and also paid off for first TD bettors against Baltimore. 

Buffalo are big favorites but they are also slow starters. They’ve scored first in just 8 of 17 games this year, which is one of the lowest rates in the league for a team with a winning record. Harris has out-touched Jaylen Warren 20-8 in the red zone the last two weeks and likely gets first crack at any short-yardage situation in this game. 

Bills vs. Steelers SGP: +1500 (DraftKings)

Shortening the spread and adding in a Najee Harris anytime TD gets us a nice correlated pair to start with. If we play the conditions and take unders on Josh Allen passing props, we can get to a very solid +1500 for this game with four very reasonable bets. 

Same game parlay

Cowboys vs Packers 

Best Bet: Cowboys -7.0 (-110, DraftKings)

  • Play to: Cowboys 7.0 (-120)

As much as I would like Jordan Love to continue this insane run he’s on, this is a really tough spot for the Packers. Dak Prescott is tough to beat in Dallas, and he’s even better when he’s a large favorite (the Cowboys are currently 7.0 favorites this week). When Prescott is at home and a favorite of 6.0 points or more, he’s gone 19-9-1 ATS for his career. 

The Packers have gotten healthier down the stretch, but number one WR Christian Watson is still less than 100%, and the Cowboys run the ball better than many of their recent opponents. Green Bay may make this interesting, but eventually, I expect the Cowboys to pull away and for Dallas to cover this spread.

You can tail the Cowboys on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets instantly by signing up below and placing your first bet of at least $5!

Prop: Tony Pollard over 61.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)

Pollard’s efficiency metrics haven’t been great this year, but his volume has remained steady. He’s received 16 and 17 carries in his last two games respectively and was able to go over this number rather easily last week against a weaker rush defense in Washington.  

The Packers didn't have to face many top-tier rushing attacks down the home stretch, but in spots where they’ve been up against better offenses, they’ve often been gashed. Overall, Green Bay is just 22nd in EPA per rush on defense and 23rd in yards per carry against. Our projections show Pollard’s over with a small edge this week, and with Dallas having such a good record at covering in these games with big spreads, trusting that he’ll get those late-game carries to push him over this number makes sense from a betting perspective. 

Cowboys vs. Packers SGP: +1000 (DraftKings)

Same game parlay

Lions vs Rams 

Best Bet: Rams +3.0 (-104, FanDuel)

  • Play to: Rams moneyline +135

The Rams have an experience advantage at head coach that should matter in this game. Sean McVay has run the gauntlet in the playoffs before and has been able to get a very young team to believe in itself this season, to the point where they are now a legit sleeper to challenge for the NFC championship. 

Per the Betting Life Thursday newsletter, McVay has also been solid in these kinds of spots before. He’s 16-10-2 ATS (18.2% ROI) as an underdog since taking over as head coach for the Rams, and, as a road dog of at least +3, he’s 12-5-2 ATS (32.7% ROI).

I like the Rams to cover and pull out the outright upset this Sunday.

You can tail the Rams on FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more:

Prop: Josh Reynolds over 28.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

I like this spot for Reynolds. The Lions have all kinds of injury issues in their receiving room right now. Kalif Raymond (doubtful) likely won’t play, and Sam LaPorta (knee - questionable) may not be 100% if he does play. Jameson Williams (ankle) also got banged up last week and may not be 100% (but he will play, per Dan Campbell). 

Reynolds had five games with 50 yards of receiving in his first six starts of 2023 (when Williams was suspended). In those six starts, he averaged 56.8 receiving yards and 4.5 targets per game—and that stretch included a Week 3 performance where he saw zero targets in 54 snaps. He’s also a solid ladder bet past 50 yards, which could be combined with a TD prop as well. 

Lions vs. Rams SGP: +8000 (DraftKings)

This game has video game potential, so why not play for the superball level payout? The Lions' passing defense has been one of the worst in the league, and the Rams play at one of the fastest paces in the league—which should lead to more Jared Goff dropbacks, and Josh Reynolds targets. It’s +8000 for a reason, but the game environment will likely support something like this hitting on Sunday. 

Same game parlay

Buccaneers vs Eagles 

Best Bet: Buccaneers moneyline (+135, bet365)

  • Play to: +130

I’m not sure how we can trust the Eagles at this point. Both of their starting WRs (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith) are questionable and potential game-time decisions, while their beleaguered secondary lost S Sydney Brown. Jalen Hurts (finger) is also banged up. 

The Buccaneers are no world-beaters, but they are competent. Their rushing game improved as the season wore on, and their defense would be getting a huge break if even one of Smith or Brown can’t go in this game. Jalen Hurts is also 10-17-1 ATS on the road for his career. 

I’d rather take a shot with the +135 odds that the Buccaneers can pull off the upset than trust the Eagles to cover any number at this point. 

Prop: Rachaad White anytime TD (-105, BetMGM)

  • Play to: -120

White should be a very pivotal player for the Buccaneers in this game. The second-year back scored eight times in his final 10 games of the year and faces an Eagles front that was 31st in EPA against the rush from Week 10 onward.

While he often doesn’t get the praise or accolades that other lead RBs do because of his poor efficiency stats, White’s an insanely good receiver (3 receiving TDs) and has a stranglehold on the red zone work (88% of the red zone work among Tampa Bay RBs was handled by White). 

Given how poorly the Eagles defended the rush down the stretch and the improvement the Buccaneers have shown on defense, I wouldn’t hesitate to bet White in the first TD market either (+700, BetMGM).  Philadelphia may still be the better team, but as losers of five of their last six games, they don’t deserve a whole ton of respect for betting this week either. 

Buccaneers vs Eagles SGP: +650 (DraftKings)

Unlike the last game, I’m keeping this one relatively simple. The Eagles may not have their starting two WRs, meaning there is a good chance we’ll see a more boring, slower-pace game develop. In that scenario, the Buccaneers can certainly prevail, and White, as mentioned above, will likely be critical to that success.   

Same game parlay
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