Best Bets for the 2024 3M Open: Outrights, Longshots, and more

The 3M Open is one of the two events left on the PGA schedule before the FedEx Cup playoffs begin. For a lot of players, these next two events will be extremely important, not just for their standing on the PGA TOUR and the playoffs, but for their career as well. Players outside the top 70 won’t be able to compete in the playoffs, and those outside the top 125 will need to make up ground in the fall just to retain full playing status. 

Hence, getting points this week is of utmost importance for those either on the top-70 or top-125 bubble. 

In terms of field, it’s not shocking that a lot of the top players took this week off. Tony Finau and Sahith Theegala are the only top-20 players from the OWGR in the field with Finau set as the favorite (+1100, DraftKings). He’s closely followed by Sam Burns (+1800, DraftKings), who is coming off a terrible Sunday at the Open where he fell in position from T2 to T31.

The 3M Open has tended to be a lower-scoring event, however. With how much water is on the course, scoring can be extremely variable, as players can land a double-bogey or worse on almost any hole. To give you an idea of how this event has played out as of late, here's a quick rundown of the last three winners of the 3M Open and how they achieved victory.

2021– Cameron Champ (+15000) -15

• Champ won at -15 in somewhat windy conditions. The 15-under he posted was the worst winning score we’ve seen over five years of play at TPC Twin Cities.
• He didn’t play in the Open but did finish T11 at the John Deere two weeks prior, where he gained strokes OTT and on approach for the week.
• Champ relied a lot on the putter. He gained 8.5 strokes on the green at TPC Twin Cities but only gained 3.7 strokes on approach.
• His strokes gained on approach was the worst mark of any of the winners of this event since its inception in 2019.

2022 – Tony Finau (+1200) -19

• Finau really dominated with his ball striking, gaining a superb 12.8 strokes combined on approach and off the tee.
• He caught a struggling Scott Piercy in Round 4, ending his event with weekend rounds of 65 and 67.
• Finau relied more on ball-striking but still gained strokes ATG and putting.
• He finished T28 at the Open the week prior and had gained 5.6 strokes on approach two events before at the Travelers, where he finished T13.

2023 – Lee Hodges (+8000) -24

• Hodges was coming in off a missed cut at the Open but had finished T12 two starts prior to the Scottish Open.
• He gained over 9.4 strokes on approach, the best mark of any of the past five winners at TPC Twin Cities.
• Hodges likely would've won even with an average putting week, but he also gained 6.2 strokes putting, which afforded him the seven stroke win.
• Like many past winners, he was only slightly positive in around-the-green (ATG) play (+1.2).

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in the early week 3M Open course preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with TPC Twin Cities yet, I'd recommend that you do so. It’s a venue which features a lot of water and big fairways and tends to correlate well with other TPC venues like Sawgrass and Scottsdale, both of which have similar layouts.

But today, I’m honing in on specific bets and creating a weekly betting card, which I’ll summarize at the bottom of the article. Before we get to the good stuff, here are a few more notes about the 2024 3M Open to keep in mind.

• It’s a 150-plus man field with the cut line taking place after Friday. The top 65 players and ties will make the weekend.
• The event is only five years old, and each of the first five tournaments was held at TPC Twin Cities.
• Four of the past five winners of this event had odds of +8000 or longer, so it's been a great spot for longshots.
• Both Billy Horschel and Justin Rose, who finished T2 last week at the Open, are in the field.
• The forecast is for highs in the 85 to 90°F range with winds of 12 to 15 mph expected on Friday and Saturday.
• From a draw perspective, the Friday afternoon wave may have to deal with worse wind in the first two days.

2024 3M Open Classic Betting Odds

Here are the top 10 golfers in betting odds per DraftKings for the 2024 3M Open Classic: 

Finau and Burns are the only two golfers with odds under +2000. However, there are a few players with slightly longer odds in my best bets up next.

Best Bets for the 2024 3M Open Classic

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright plays for me, I like playing these names in the placing department as well. As such, I’ve included placing options for each name if you'd like to construct a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one), then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work you can click here.

Luke Clanton

• Outright (+3000, DraftKings)

If ever there were a time to bet on an amateur winning a PGA event, this would be it. Clanton comes into this event having gained an average of 4.72 strokes off the tee over his last four starts. He’s also shown upside with his irons, having gained strokes on approach in four straight, including a +6.8 stroke effort at the John Deere Classic, where he finished in 2nd place.

Putting has also been a bright spot for Clanton as of late. The fact that he managed to gain over a stroke (+1.7) on Pinehurst’s complex green structures suggests good upside in that department. Overall, he’s gained over a stroke on the greens in three of his four starts.

Jul 7, 2024; Silvis, Illinois, USA; Luke Clanton hits his tee shot on the second hole during the final round of the John Deere Classic golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Cress-USA TODAY Sports

While it’s correct to be wary of new talent coming into the PGA, as they're often at an experience disadvantage on some of the more complex setups, TPC Twin Cities is hardly a difficult course. It’s the same place we saw a 21-year-old Matthew Wolff come in with about a tenth of the form that Clanton now carries and notch his first PGA win. Three years ago, we also saw fellow off-the-tee maestro Cameron Champ take this course apart.

Summer has generally been a great time to bet on high-end young talent, and over the last four years, we've seen the aforementioned Wolff, Collin Morikawa (Barracuda), and Tom Kim (Wyndham) all grab mid-to-late summer wins that came in their first few months as full-time PGA players.

Clanton may not have huge odds anymore but still comes in ranked first in birdies or better gained over the last 24 rounds and second in strokes gained off the tee. At +3000, I’d still much rather be a little too early to this party than too late.

Maverick McNealy

• Each-way 1/5 top-eight (+5000, Bet365)

I’ll take another stab at Maverick McNealy this week, whose betting number has essentially doubled since the John Deere (where he was +2500 to +2800). He profiles well to a recent 3M Open winner in Cameron Champ, who also used a powerful off-the-tee game and some elite putting to triumph at this event back in 2021.

McNealy can be very up and down with his irons, but he’s tended to do well around these point-to-point courses which feature a lot of water, having landed T9 and T6 finishes at TPC Sawgrass and TPC Scottsdale already in 2024. While his best finish at TPC Twin Cities is a T16 from 2021, I like the fact that McNealy managed a top-20 finish that season despite not showcasing his usual upside with the putter.

If McNealy can figure out these greens, he’s shown the kind of upside that would allow him to get a low number on this venue. For the last 24 rounds, he ranks eighth in birdies or better gained and first in total strokes gained.

Plus, with some wind expected at TPC Twin Cities this week, McNealy has shown good upside in ATG play, having gained over 2.0 strokes ATG in five of his last 11 starts. It’s just another way in which the American could potentially make his way around TPC Twin Cities, a venue that could play tougher than normal this season with hot and somewhat windy conditions expected.

Adam Hadwin

• Outright (+5000, DraftKings)
• Top-10 (+500, DraftKings)

Adam Hadwin is playing this week in Minnesota because he was recently snubbed from the Canadian Olympic team, who is sending Corey Conners and Nick Taylor to Paris instead. Here's what I wrote about Hadwin in the early week 3M Open course preview. He's a player who has come desperately close to notching win No. 2 multiple times over the last year and should be playing with a small chip on his shoulder this week.

“Hadwin isn’t going to overpower TPC Twin Cities, but he’s a terrific iron player who has the ability to get extremely hot with his putter. His T3 at the Memorial came just over a month ago weeks ago and saw him gain 7.6 strokes on approach. He was solid with his irons again in Scotland two weeks ago as well, gaining 3.7 strokes on approach there.

He also ranks 9th in strokes gained putting on bentgrass over the last 24 rounds and had gained strokes putting in three straight events prior to the Open. Much like recent winners of this event in Lee Hodges and Michael Thompson, Hadwin is accurate enough that he shouldn’t get in much trouble off the tee at this venue, but his elite approach play has the ability to give himself a chance to get hot with the putter, once again.”

Longshots and Placing Bets for the 2024 3M Open

Nick Hardy

• Each-way 1/5 top-eight (+12500, Bet365)

I am very much in on Nick Hardy this week. His betting number continues to go off well over +10000 in spite of an iron game that continues to outperform. Over his last three starts, Hardy has now gained a combined 10.1 strokes on approach alone. He's also played well historically at TPC Twin Cities, having landed a T16 at this event last season. That effort saw him gain strokes across the board and 3.5 strokes on the greens.

His current odds are depressed due to some terrible performances with his putter lately, which have led to some poor finishes and also caused a MC last week at the Barracuda. I don’t want to minimize the importance of putting, but it does tend to be a highly variable area of the game.

Apr 25, 2024; Avondale, Louisiana, USA; Nick Hardy plays his shot from the 14th tee during the first round of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

We only need to look back at last year’s winner, Lee Hodges, as proof that the putter can flip any week for a player like Hardy, whose long game is in terrific form. Hodges had lost strokes putting in five of his previous eight starts before winning at TPC Twin Cities.

Given the history of longshots outperforming their odds at this event, Hardy made for a pretty easy bet given how well he's currently striking the ball. 

Patton Kizzire

• Each-way 1/5 top-eight (+12500, Bet365)

Kizzire’s a two-time PGA winner who has showcased some solid iron play as of late. The veteran gained over 3.5 strokes on approach at the Barracuda in a T8 finish and is an elite spike putter who's seen both of his wins come in lower-scoring PGA events.

The main concern with backing Kizzire at a place like TPC Twin Cities is whether his off-the-tee play will be up to snuff enough to allow him to avoid the water and big numbers. However, he’s now gained strokes off the tee in each of his last two starts and has played this venue five times prior, having made the cut at TPC Twin Cities in four of those previous attempts.

Kizzire’s been a form player most of his career, so the fact that he’s trending well and has such solid upside with the putter makes him a longshot worth betting for me in this weaker field.

Trace Crowe

• Each-way 1/5 top-eight (+30000, Bet365)

I’m taking a small flier on Trace Crowe this week. He ranks 165th in the FedEx Cup standings and needs some big weeks down the stretch just to get conditional status for next season. Crowe shot a 63 at Myrtle Beach back in April and also gained 4.8 strokes on approach at the John Deere three starts ago, so he’s not without talent.

He's also a past winner at the Glen Club on the Korn Ferry Tour (NX5 Invitational), a course that also traverses around plenty of man-made lakes and houses and compares well to TPC Twin Cities.

May 30, 2024; Hamilton, Ontario, CAN; Trace Crowe plays his tee shot at the eighth hole during the first round of the RBC Canadian Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Crowe is 300-1 for a reason, but this time of year often sees some players like him, who are well down the FedEx Standings, pop up with better finishes as the pressure to gain points starts to mount.

With a top eight placing giving us close to +6000 odds, the +30000 each-way on Crowe is more than juicy enough to warrant a small bet.

Ben Griffin

• Top-40 (+100, Bet365)

Griffin’s a solid player. He ranks sixth in strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds and has now gained 2.5 strokes or more on approach in each of his last four starts. Much like a couple of other recent winners of this event in Lee Hodges and Michael Thompson, Griffin is accurate enough that he shouldn’t get in much trouble off the tee at this venue. Plus, his elite approach play can give him a chance to get hot with the putter once again.

His outright number (+5000) this week isn’t super appealing given how poorly he’s done when in contention, but his top-40 odds stick out as a solid bet for me this week.

Over his last 13 PGA starts, Griffin has now finished inside the top 40 on nine occasions, with his only failures having come in either signature field events or majors. At +100, Griffin's top-40 number isn’t really reflective of how successful he’s been in these weaker field events, making it a nice value for me in this market.

2024 3M Open Classic Full Card

• Luke Clanton Outright +3000 0.7 units
• Maverick McNealy Each-Way (top 8) +5000 0.35 units 0.35 units
• Adam Hadwin Outright +5500 0.30 units / Top 10 +500 0.4 units
• Nick Hardy Each-Way (top 8) +12500 0.25 units / 0.25 units
• Patton Kizzire Each-Way (top 8) +12500 0.2 units / 0.2 units
• Trace Crowe Each-Way (top 8) +30000  0.075 units / 0.075 units
• Ben Griffin Top 40 +100 0.85 units