Best Bets For The 2024 Black Desert Championship

The PGA TOUR season rolls along this week, and Geoff Ulrich is here to break down his best bets for the 2024 Black Desert Championship:

Last week saw Kevin Yu grab his first PGA win in a playoff over Beau Hossler. The two players both got in the clubhouse at 23-under par and then watched as Keith Mitchell self-destructed down the stretch and three-jacked the final hole, to finish at 22-under and miss the playoff.

Yu then fired a great tee shot in the playoff that led to a short birdie and the win. 

It was a tough scene for the betting card last week as we airmailed everything, including the placement bets. The fall swing can be “swingy” but with long shots in play every week thanks to the weaker fields, we can make it all up in a flash too. 

Let’s get to this week’s event down below. 

Black Desert Championship Betting Breakdown

The Black Desert Championship is the third fall swing event for 2024 and a brand new stop on the PGA TOUR. Utah must be back in vogue right now because their new hockey team is also kicking things off this week-–good time to be a Ute! 

Regardless, this event is taking place in the southern portion of the state in Ivins, Utah near the border between Arizona and Nevada, at Black Desert Resort; a very new course that was designed by Tom Weiskopf just before his passing. The venue will play as a Par 71 at 7371 yards and features pure bentgrass greens, which is something of an anomaly for this part of the USA.

The course is set in Lava fields (hence the name Black Desert) in a natural preservation area and is completely open with few trees or traditional rough. The wide fairways will likely make this an easy off-the-tee test for the players, but the larger greens mean that hitting it close will require great control with mid and short irons.

From a setup perspective, the venue has some similarities to Weiskpf’s other designs on the PGA TOUR, including TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson) and TPC Scottsdale (WMPO Phoenix Open). With this being a new venue and event I’ve leaned on past results from those two venues as well as recent form more heavily this week for the betting card. 

Side note: If you’re in need of more bets with Golf in its offseason, be sure to follow our FREE NFL bet tracker which already has plenty of Week 5 bets up to consider. 

A couple of things that stood out to me when looking at the course this week:

• It has seven par 4s that measure between 420 yards to 480 yards or longer; which is right in line with Craig Ranch and Scottsdale (Weiskopf’s other designs).
   
• Its back nine starts with five straight par 4s, four of which are long holes; which again, is exactly how TPC Craig Ranch is laid out and also somewhat similar to Scottsdale, which starts with a couple of longer par 4s on the back.
   
• Both Black Desert and Craig Ranch end with a straightforward Par 5 and have a risk-reward, short par 4 down the stretch (14th hole).
   
• The Greens are oversized at 7,000 sq feet and nearly identical in size to TPC Craig Ranch and Scottsdale.

As you can see, this is another typical Weiskopf design so taking trends from both the Byron Nelson and WM Phoenix Open will likely be somewhat advantageous this week. Both of the winners from those events in 2024 tended to outperform more on the Par 4s, particularly the longer ones. 

• Nick Taylor led the Phoenix Open in Par 4 efficiency and efficiency on Par 4s from 450-500 yards but ranked well outside the top 10 in Par 5 efficiency. 
   
• It was much the same for the Byron Nelson, where runner-up Ben Kohles ranked first in efficiency on Par 4s from 450-500 yards and winner Taylor Pendrith ranked 3rd. 

I’ll be going over a few more trends in the write-ups below, but before we get there, here are a few more notes about the 2024 Black Desert Championship to keep in mind.

• It’s a 150+ man field with a cut line (65 players and ties) after Friday.
   
• The highest-ranked player in the field is Chris Kirk (41st OWGR) but last week’s runner-up Keith Mitchell leads the betting odds at +1800. 
   
• This is the third start of the fall series, which makes this a big event for players who are 125-player bubble in the FedEx Cup points race (the top 125 players retain their card after the fall swing). 

Betting Odds For The 2024 Black Desert Championship

2024 Sanderson Farms Championship Top 10 names in betting odds:

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

2024 Black Desert Championship Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play. 

While I have a handful of outright plays I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

For odds, I’ve also used the best options available at the time of writing so you know where to look and what to look for.

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here.

Kurt Kitayama Each-Way 1/4 Top Five (+3000; bet365)

Kitayama is getting a lot of respect this week in the betting odds for a player who is making his first fall start, but I do think it’s warranted. Few players in this field have a signature field win to their name (Kitayama won the 2023 API) and the American did finish the regular season with a relatively strong showing at the 3M, where he gained 7.0 strokes on approach and finished T6 back in July. 

While he can be a bit up and down on the stat sheet, there is zero doubting Kitayama’s talent. On top of his win at the API, he also has three runner-up finishes on the PGA TOUR and all those close calls came to elite players, with him finishing 2nd to Jon Rahm at the Mexico Open, 2nd at Xander Schuaffele at the Scottish Open, and 2nd to Rory McIlroy at the CJ Cup, all in the 2022 calendar year.

Kitayama’s not only a player who should feel comfortable being a top dog in this field but he’s also shown love for Tom Wesifopf setups, having finished T23 and T8 at the Phoenix Open the last two seasons. With Black Desert’s space off the tee, he should be able to rip his driver here often and use his prestigious mid and long iron accuracy (fifth in proximity overall and first in Proximity 175-200 yards last 24 rounds) to rack up some birdies.

I like jumping on him at +3000 or better either as an outright or each-way play this week and hope he can mimic some of his past success (2nd in Mexico in 2022 off a month+ of rest) he’s had on the PGA when coming in off long layoffs.

Doug Ghim Each-Way 1/5 Top 8 (+4500; bet365)

Ghim is another player who feels likely to mesh well with this week’s setup. The 28-year-old has proven himself to be one of the best mid-iron players on TOUR (seventh in proximity, last 24 rounds) and had another decent outing last week at the Sanderson Farms, where he finished T33 and gained 5.2 strokes TTG. Just like Kitayama, he’s shown well on other Weiskopf designs, having finished T19 at the Phoenix Open this season, where he led the field in proximity from 150-200 yards.

The putter remains an issue for Ghim, but with a switch to large bentgrass greens, the advantage the better putters have over Ghim may be mitigated somewhat by the unknown this week. Regardless, I’m not interested in dwelling on whether Ghim’s putter will flip or not, but do want to keep backing a prestigious ball-striker at decent numbers.

Much like last week’s winner Kevin Yu, Ghim’s putting himself in too many good positions not to have a hot weekend at some point and pay us off either with a place or win soon. 

Daniel Berger Each-Way 1/5 Top 8 (+4500; bet365)

I don’t love steam-chasing golfers off one good result, but you’re either a believer in Daniel Berger’s overall talent being better than pretty much everyone else’s in this field, or you're not. As you can tell by the fact he made my card this week, I’m a Berger believer and think we are still getting more than fair prices at +4500 or better to take him against a field where Keith Mitchell is the favorite.

The American had a tough finish to the 2024 regular season (four missed cuts in his last five starts) but showed well last week at the Sanderson Farms, where he opened with a pair of 65s. Berger slowed down on the weekend, but his finish was extremely encouraging given he finished 6th in Par 4 efficiency and third in overall proximity.

Now he comes to a Tom Weiskopf design where mid-iron accuracy on these larger greens will be key. Berger would have been worth a speculative play for me this week even if hadn’t played well last week–just based on his history at Scottsdale and Craig Ranch (T9 WM Phoenix ‘20; T3 Byron Nelson ‘21)--but with him showing some actual form I’m more than fine taking him at lower prices with a confidence-building start now under his belt.

Longshots and Placement Bets For The Black Desert Championship 

Martin Laird Outright (+17000; FanDuel)

• Top 10/Top 20 (+1200/+450; FanDuel)

Martin Laird is a Phoenix-based player who has had some great results in this part of the USA, including two wins in nearby Nevada at TPC Summerlin. The 41-year-old also posted a T5 at the Weiskopf-designed TPC Scottsdale back in 2015 and has three top 10s at that venue over the last decade. 

Laird’s made a couple of cuts already to start the fall swing and showed some promising stats in Jackson at the Sanderson Farms, gaining 5.5 strokes TTG for the week and 2.7 strokes on approach. He’d likely be much shorter this week if not for the fact he lost 5.0 strokes putting on the Bermuda greens at the Country Club of Jackson, but the change to Bentgrass, a surface he’s excelled on at TPC Twin Cities (T2-2023) and TPC Summerlin (win 2009 and 2020) could produce some massive positive regression in that area this week. 

I’m all for backing him at these big prices given how solid he hit the ball in his last start, and how beneficial the move to Black Desert could be for his putter.

Brandon Wu Outright (+15000; FanDuel)

• Top 10/Top 20 (+1100/+450; FanDuel)

Wu only finished T55 in Jackson, but he still managed to gain 1.6 strokes on approach with his irons and continues to outperform around the greens (+2.3 strokes ATG in Jackson). Over the last 24 rounds, he’s also second in approach proximity from 150-175 yards and has gained over a stroke on approach now in four of his last five starts.

Wu’s also tended to do his best work on more open designs, like Black Desert, posting top-10 finishes in Mexico at Vidanta Villarta (x2), Puerto Rico, and Scotland, and also posted a solid T23 at TPC Craig Ranch in 2023, where he gained 3.7 strokes on approach for the week.

With his ball-striking on the uptick, I see no reason why he can’t challenge for a top 20 or better again and match or exceed the T13 he started the fall swing with at the Procore.

Full Betting Card For The 2024 Black Desert Championship

• Kurt Kitayama +3000 EW-5 0.5u/0.5u  
• Doug Ghim +4500 EW-8 0.45u/0.45u
• Daniel Berger +4500 EW-8 0.45/0.45u 
• Martin Laird +17000 .1u | Top 10 +1200 .4u | Top 20 +450 0.6u
• Brandon Wu +15000 .1u | Top 10 +1100 0.4u | Top 20 +450 0.6u