Best Bets for the 2024 BMW Championship: Picks for the Final Leg of the FedEx Cup

Last week’s event looked like a bore through the first 64 holes. Then Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele started playing well and Hideki Matsuyama started to do his best Max Greyserman impression, and we had a tie game heading into the final two holes. 

One made 26-footer later (and a nine-foot miss by Hovland) and Matsuyama had righted the ship and secured the trophy, but what an effort it took. From a bets perspective, I decided to go with Patrick Cantlay over Matsuyama last week, and when you cut the winner for a guy who finishes T8 to T20 every week, it’s generally not a great thing. 

Still, we’re very positive from a betting perspective over the last eight events and will try to end strong over the last two events of the regular season. I won’t have as many outrights on the card this week due to the reduced field but did find a couple of longshots I like laddering in the outright markets.  

Side note: If you’re looking for picks for the upcoming NFL season, be sure to follow our FREE NFL bet tracker which already has plenty of futures bets up to consider. 

The field this week is cut down to 50 players with only the top 30 advancing next week to East Lake, a big deal for many players as the top 30 automatically get invites into all four majors (and a shot at some big money)

The current top five in the FedEx Cup standings heading into Castle Pines, looks like this. 

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Rory McIlroy

In terms of how this event has played out in the past, the BMW has always rotated courses so it’s not an event where we can generally rely on course history to help guide us. For whatever, reason, it’s also an event that has often ended up featuring softer courses, with winning scores often getting into the high teens or above. 

Here’s how the last three BMW Championships have played out. 

2021 – Patrick Cantlay (+2500) -27

• Cantlay finished T11 in the first playoff event
• Had already won once on the season and was still chasing his first playoff win
• The winning score that season was -27 played at another longer Par 72 in Caves Valley (beat Bryson DeChambeau in a lengthy playoff)

2022 – Patrick Cantlay (+1200) -14

• Came off a poor performance in the first playoff event (T57) but had been playing well prior (top 10 at the Open)
• Dueled with Scott Stallings down the stretch but held on for a one-stroke win
• Course played much more difficult than it did the previous season 

2023 – Viktor Hovland (+1600) -16

• Was coming off a great season where he finished top 10 in multiple majors and had finished T13 at the Open and T13 at the first playoff event the week before
• Hovland gained over 4.5 strokes on approach in his last event and shot 65-61 on the weekend to vault over everyone and win the event by two on the usually tough Olympia Fields

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in the early week BMW Championship course preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with Castle Pines yet, I recommend you do so. It’s a very long Par 72 at 8,130 yards that plays at altitude in Denver (6,400 feet) and was designed by Jack Nicklaus.  

Today, though, I’m honing in on specific bets and creating a weekly betting card, which I’ll summarize at the bottom of the article. Before we get to the good stuff, here are a few more notes about the 2024 BMW Championship to keep in mind.

• It’s a 50-man field with no cut line; all 50 players will get in four rounds
• The last three versions of this event have been won by top 10 players in the OWGR
• It’s played on a rotating batch of courses so course history isn’t very useful
• There are no alternates allowed, so any late withdrawal means the field will get reduced by one. 
• The event this year is being played at altitude in Denver so iron control will be of utmost importance.

BMW Championship Betting Odds

2024 BMW Championship Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

2024 BMW Championship Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play. 

While I have a handful of outright plays I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

For odds, I’ve also used the best options available at the time of writing so you know where to look and what to look for. 

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Sam Burns Outright Each-Way 1/5 Top 3 (+5000; bet365)

• Top 10 (+360; FanDuel)

Burns is the type of player we have seen breakout in the playoffs in years prior. He’s 28 years old and already has multiple PGA wins under his belt. That puts him right in line with past winners of this event like Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, and, going back to 2014, Billy Horschel.

The 28-year-old is also coming off a solid start in the first playoff event, and that’s typically been a great indicator of success at the BMW Championship, an event where many winners first logged top 20 finishes or better the week before.

While his driver did let him down in spots at the tighter TPC Southwind, with more room off the tee at Castle Pines Burns is likely to have a better week in that regard. Recently, he gained strokes off the tee at both TPC Twin Cities and Pinehurst, two driver-heavy courses that should emulate Castle Pines somewhat off the tee.

Burns is also one of the few players who made a start between the Open and playoffs, which may give him an advantage form-wise. He improved his strokes gained approach metrics for the third event in a row last week and is feeling it with the putter having gained 7.1 strokes putting at Southwind. The change in putting surface may not be ideal but considering he gained 3.9 strokes putting on bentgrass at Twin Cities a couple of weeks back it’s also not a huge worry. 

At +3000 or better, he makes for a nice outright target in this smaller field and a player I’d look to back in the top 10 market again as well. 

Tony Finau Outright (+3300; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+240; FanDuel)

I wrote about Finau in our early week course preview. The 34-year-old is looking to put an end to his winless streak at the BMW Championship and has experienced plenty of success in the playoffs, and at this event, in the past.

“Finau has already experienced some playoff success of his own, with his biggest career win coming back in 2021 at the now-defunct Northern Trust (an event that used to come directly before the BMW, but was renamed the FedEx St. Jude in 2022 and moved to TPC Southwind). He’s had plenty of success at this event as well, placing top 10 at the BMW four times in a row between 2017 and 2020.

History aside, if we were simply going by recent form stats this week, there is a good case to be made that Finau should be lower in odds. He’s 2nd in strokes gained approach stats over the last 24 rounds, 4th in opportunities gained, and should be helped by the setup at Castle Pines, a course whose wider fairways somewhat mimic venues he’s already won at in TPC Twin Cities and Vidanta Vallarta.

The change in putting surface to Pao/Bent should also be helpful as he’s gained strokes putting each of the last four times he’s played on either of those types of grass.”

He doesn’t win as much as he should, but considering we’re in a 50-man field, being able to back a player who is top five in strokes gained approach stats and 4th in opportunities gained feels like a great deal. 

I’m happy to take a piece of him this week at +3000 or better and will also look to back him as an each-way with a place, or in the top 10 market.

BMW Championship Longshots and Placing Bets

Will Zalatoris Each-Way 1/4 Top Five (+7500; bet365)

• Top 10 (+425; bet365)

Peak bearishness on Zalatoris was reached at the Wyndham Championship a couple of weeks ago when he missed his third cut in a row. The 28-year-old went off as big as 200-1 last week in the outright market as a result but managed to give his ardent bettors a bit of a thrill as he scared the lead for portions of the event before eventually settling in T12 for the week. 

Nothing Zalatoris did jumped off the page at TPC Southwind, but he did gain strokes in every single metric and gained strokes off the tee and on approach for the second straight start. He also managed his first Top 20 on the PGA since April (T9 Masters) a feat that should give him some much-needed confidence heading into this week.

Zalatoris’ odds have dipped, but at +7500, he’s still available at a huge price considering the 50-man field. As a former playoff winner (2022 FedEx St. Jude) and someone who has won in Colorado before – taking down the Ascendant at TPC Colorado (also played at altitude) in 2020 – he’s a player I like making a speculative wager with this week.

At 37th in the FedEx Cup standings, only another big week will get him through to East Lake for the finale, and with his game humming, anything above +400 (top 10) and +7000 (outright) is worth taking.

Taylor Pendrith Outright (+10000; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+550; FanDuel)
• Top 20 (+180; FanDuel)

After posting a T22 at Southwind, Pendrith now enters this event ranked 27th in the FedEx Cup standings and has a great shot at getting his first invite to East Lake this weekend with another solid start. The Canadian is also outside the top six of the current President Cup standings, but a good showing in the playoffs would go a long way to ensuring he got one of the six captain’s picks. 

Pendrith can be wild off the tee but as a true bomber, he also has plenty of upside at driver-friendly courses, which should make Castle Pines an ideal venue. The Canadian gained 5.2 strokes OTT at TPC Twin Cities last month and had another stellar outing OTT (+4.0 strokes) at TPC Craig Ranch, two venues with larger-than-normal fairways. The Candian also gained a 4.2-strokes on approach at the FedEx St. Jude (T22) and has improved in that metric in each of his last three events.

We don’t see longshots win the BMW very often, but it does happen. In 2020, Keegan Bradley won a lower-scoring affair in his mid-30s as a 100-1 longshot for this event and the 33-year-old Pendrith – who is also available at triple-digit figures this week – has shown a solid liking for birdie fest type of events, an environment that Castle Pines may provide this weekend.

Even if the Canadian doesn’t pull off the massive upset, with his Top 20 prices sitting at +180 (35% IP) in a 50-man field, he’s someone I'm bullish on ladder betting through multiple markets, as his form looks to be peaking at the exact right moment. 

Full Card: 

• Sam Burns +3500 outright .35 units  | Top 10 +260 .65 units
• Tony Finau +3300 outright .35 units  | Top 10 +240 .9 units 
• Will Zalatoris +7500 Each-Way 1/4 Top 5 0.20 / 0.20
• Top 10 +425  .6 units  
• Taylor Pendrith +10000 Outright .1 units
• Top 10 +550 .4 units  | Top 20 +180 .75 units