Best Bets for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge

The PGA heads back to Texas for the fourth time this week as we focus on our best bets for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge.

This event has undergone many name changes (who can forget the Dean & DuLuca era) but has always been held at Colonial Country Club, a course that has roots dating back to the 1930s.

Colonial is one of the more classic setups on the PGA TOUR, challenging players through difficult course management decisions and smaller targets rather than sheer length. For 2024, the venue has also undergone a complete renovation at the hands of modern course maestro Gil Hanse.

We’ll get more into the renovation below under the course preview, but I would still expect Colonial to play up to its usual standards. Much of the renovation was focused on returning greens and fairways to their natural and original structure rather than completely redesigning holes.

As such, expect the same tight leaderboard we get at this venue every season with a bigger emphasis on putting and iron play than we saw last week. Here are a few other quick notes about the event:

• It’s a 120-man invitational field with the cut line taking place after Friday (the top 65 players and ties will make the weekend).
• There are three top-10 players in the field this week (Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa) as well as multiple past champions, including Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, and Emiliano Grillo. 
• The weather this week looks mostly fine, but there are some potential thunderstorms looming on Thursday afternoon that could make early starters more appealing first-round leader bets. 
• Hotter temperatures are expected to prevail over the weekend, which could dry out the course and the new greens.

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Odds

The odds this week are interesting to say the least. Scottie Scheffler is in the field and set at a ridiculously short +280. The last event where his odds were this short pre-event was Houston, and Scheffler ended up finishing T2. One benefit of him being in the field is that the odds on players behind him like Max Homa and Tony Finau are now more attractive.

Still, any bets this week have to take into account Scheffler’s prowess and the fact that his implied probability is rated at 26.3% (via the Fantasy Life Betting Calculator) to win this week. Those are insanely short outright odds for a golf tournament with a 120-man field, but they represent how dominant Scheffler has been this season.

Here are the top-10 names in betting odds for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge (DraftKings): 

Course history is another factor to consider this week. Names like Harris English and Jordan Spieth have had solid results at Colonial (Spieth won here in 2016), but their course history does seem to be baked into their odds (both men are inside the top 10).

Spieth, in particular, is coming in with poor form, so a bet on him means that you'll be relying heavily on that course experience to be a factor.

Course Preview for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge

Colonial Country Club - Fort Worth, TX

• Par 70
• 7,290 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Architects (year): John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell (1936)
• Renovation architects (year): Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner
  (2023)

Past winners

• 2023: Emiliano Grillo (+7000)
• 2022: Sam Burns (+3000)
• 2021: Jason Kokrak (+5000)
• 2020: Daniel Berger (+6000)
• 2019: Kevin Na (+7000)

Colonial is one of the tightest Par 70 tracks we’ll see all season, but that doesn't mean that it’s straightforward. The classic tree-lined venue has plenty of doglegs and blocked-out greens (due to heavy overhanging trees mostly) that require players to finesse and shape their irons.

That’s led to an eclectic group of winners over the history of this event. Elite ball-strikers like Nick Price and Boo Weekly have found success at Colonial along with high-end putting approach specialists like Kevin Kisner and Kevin Na.

Despite being a tree-lined parkland course, there are also four water traps at Colonial, and three of them come into play down the stretch at the Par 3 13th and 16th and the Par 4 18th. Both 13 and 16 have had their tee boxes moved and renovated to make the water even more of a factor for 2024. That should place more emphasis on elite iron play for this season's iteration.

The Par 3s aren’t overly long, but the rest of the course plays longer than its yardage in many respects. Seven Par 4s measure between 400 to 450 yards, but many of those holes will require players to club down off the tee so they can hit their target in the fairway and not be blocked off on Shot No. 2. The Par 5 first hole is a relatively simple hole that plays as the easiest every season, but the 631-yard Par 5 11th is less of a pushover.

Jun 14, 2020; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Collin Morikawa walks onto the 18th green during the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge golf tournament at Colonial Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Colonial has had new greens and fairways put in, and several greens have shifted to better resemble the course's original look. It’s hard to know exactly how that will affect play, but I wouldn’t expect a drastic shift from prior seasons. Past winners have excelled in two areas: approach play and putting. That seems likely to be the case again this season.

None of the last three winners at Colonial gained over 1.0 strokes around the greens (Kokrak in 2021 actually lost -2.0 strokes ATG), but all three gained over 5.0 strokes putting and over 3.5 strokes on approach. All three men (Kokrak 2021, Burns 2022, and Grillo 2023) had also played Colonial multiple times before their win and had gained over 3.0 strokes putting at the venue in one of those prior starts.

The new greens may negate some of that course advantage this season, so if ever there were a year to back a newbie or player with less experience at Colonial, this would be it. Still, I wouldn't write off course history altogether. Colonial’s a venue that suits a specific type of skill set, and the more players get comfortable with how to excel around this venue, the better chance they have of actually succeeding at this event.

Best Bets for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright plays for me, I like playing these names in the placing department as well. As such, I’ve included placing options for each name if you'd like to construct a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one), then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant.

For more information on how each-way bets work you can click here.

Sungjae Im

• Outright (+4000, FanDuel)

Colonial sets up well for a player with a well-rounded skill set who can manage his way around a tricky setup for four days. Eventually, this type of player can use a combination of accurate iron shots and elite putting to pull away from the field. That’s exactly the formula that SungJae Im used to secure his first two victories on the PGA TOUR, and it’s a feat I expect him to accomplish several more times before his career is over.

Im is coming into this week’s event off a missed cut at Valhalla, but his poor result there belies the fact that his form has started to turn for the better over the last month. He posted his first top-five of the season two weeks ago at Quail Hollow, hanging well with a group of elite leaders on a course that ultimately set up longer than he’d like.

Before that, Im had also managed a T12 around the more appealing Hilton Head, where he also gained strokes on approach for the first time in four starts. I’d be more wary of betting Im this week if he had looked poor on the stat sheet at Valhalla, but that simply wasn’t the case. He gained strokes on approach and off the tee in both rounds but simply fell victim to frustration with the putter (-4.8 strokes putting).  Given how well he putted at Quail Hollow, I doubt that we’ll see another poor effort from him on the greens at Colonial, a venue where Im has finished T10 and T15 in two of the past four seasons.

While there are other options in this odds range, I think the style of course and recent form are both nice factors in Im’s favor this week. I’m happy to take the current prices on him, as they would've likely been much shorter had he barely scraped through last weekend at Valhalla.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

• Each-way 1/5 top-8 (+4500, Bet365)

As mentioned above, the two biggest skill sets I’m interested in chasing this week are putting upside and elite approach play, and I don’t mind paying a small premium for a golfer who offers both. Bezuidenhout’s price tag feels like it should be bigger after he missed the cut at the year’s second major, but the 7,600-yard Valhalla was hardly a place I expected the shorter-hitter to excel.

Outside of that one missed cut, Bezuidenhout has played well most of the season, having gotten four top-25 results over his last six starts. That includes a T9 at the equally technical Valspar, where he was only a shot or two off contending for the win.

Mar 23, 2024; Palm Harbor, Florida, USA; Christiaan Bezuidenhout plays his shot on the first tee during the third round of the Valspar Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

This will be the third time Bezuidenhout has played the Schwab, and his results around Colonial suggest that he’s very comfortable with the tighter driving chutes and emphasis on irons and putting. He’s finished T15 and T21 the last two seasons, having gained over 2.0 strokes on approach and putting on both occasions.

The short game has held him back at Colonial in past seasons, but Bezuidenhout has vastly improved that part of his game in 2024. He comes in ranked a solid 22nd in SG: Around-the-Green stats over the last 24 rounds.

As much as I wish the price was a little bigger (to compensate for that missed cut last week), Bezuidenhout checks all the boxes for me at this course. At +4500 odds, he's somewhat of an essential add for me this week at a setup that suits his game perfectly.

Tom Hoge

• Top-5 (+750, BetMGM)

Hoge comes into this event having gained strokes on approach in every single start he’s made on the PGA this season (15). Even his lone missed cut at the Sony Open back in January saw him gain +0.7 strokes in that category. While the rest of his game does have shortcomings his classic ball-striking profile sets up perfectly for this Colonial, a venue where other iron wizards like Nick Price, Boo Weekly, and Daniel Berger have all gained wins over the past 30 years.

Despite the solid setup, the hesitation with betting Hoge to win is always there. He seems almost too comfortable with just making the cut at times and there is always some kind of flaw in the rest of his game that rears its ugly head at the wrong moment. Still, if he’s going to capitalize on this recent run of form soon it’s most likely to come at a venue like Colonial which allows him to press his best advantage (short to mid-irons) and won’t force him to be more aggressive than he needs to be off the tee.

Ultimately, Hoge’s putter has been working well enough this year that his chances at Colonial this week seem much better than they have in recent years. We can also take off some risk by simply making a small top-five wager on him as well at +750 or better; prices that still offer us plenty of upside in their own right.

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Longshot Bets

Thomas Detry

• Each-way 1/5 top-5 (+5500, Bet365)

Detry is coming off a career-best finish in a major after a T4 with a superb round of 66 to close out his tournament at Valhalla. He relied heavily on the short game and putter last week (+4.1 strokes putting and +6.0 strokes ATG), but that’s not necessarily new for him. If anything, it's more impressive that Detry also managed to gain strokes off the tee and on approach at the longer Valhalla, which required a lot of longer to mid-iron approaches.

The Belgian can be maniacal, but he’s also the kind of talented savant that should find a place like Colonial inviting. He’s an elite putter who finished T21 at this venue on his first attempt last season, having gained a combined 7.2 strokes ATG + Putting for the week.

May 18, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Thomas Detry takes a shot on the fourth hole for an eagle during the third round of the PGA Championship golf tournament at Valhalla Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Matt Stone-USA TODAY Sports

The PGA Championship result aside, most of Detry's best efforts have come at these weaker field events and on courses that mimic Colonial in one way or another, like the shorter Pebble Beach or tree-lined Jackson CC.

Given how important it is to sink putts at this venue this weekend, I’m happy to give Detry a chance at his current price. His swing seems to be producing more consistent results as of late. That along with a very in-form putter feels like it could be enough to lift him into heavy contention on Sunday.

Justin Lower

• Outright (+30000, FanDuel)
• Top-20 with ties (+450, Bet365)
• Top-40 with ties (+150, Bet365)

Lower has been in solid form for most of the year. He’s improved his upside with his irons in 2024 and ranks sixth in strokes gained putting over the last 24 rounds. Given the setup this week, that alone is enough to put him on my radar. We know past winners at Colonial have gained nearly as many strokes putting as they have on approach, and Lower comes in having gained strokes in both areas over each of his last four starts.

The only thing that holds me back from being even more bullish on Lower is his lack of experience at Colonial. He’s only played here once before (last season) and finished T57, though he did gain over 1.9 strokes putting. But given how well he's striking it, Lower is a player I’d want to include in betting plans in one way or another this week.

At +30000, Lower doesn’t require much of an investment to get in on some potentially colossal returns in the outright market, but he makes more sense as a top-20 and top-40 ladder play. His +500 odds for a top-20 in this 120-man field look juicy for a player trending as well as he is in all the key areas this week.

Matchup and First-Round Leader Bets for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge

Aaron Rai over Mark Hubbard

• +3500, DraftKings

I like this matchup for Rai. He’s not the greatest putter but is striking it well, having gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts. Hubbard relied more on the putter last week and is a bigger liability around a course like Colonial, where inaccuracy can quickly get him into trouble.

I expect both men to make the cut, but the better bet for a bigger week is Rai, who finished T12 here last season despite having lost strokes putting.

Aaron Rai

• First-round leader each way ¼ top-5 (+6000, Bet365)

Another way to get exposure to Rai this week is in the first-round leader market, an area where he’s excelled. The Englishman has already shot 68 or better six times in Round 1 of a PGA event this season and comes in ranked a solid 23rd in Round 1 scoring.

Moreover, Thursday looks to possibly have some building winds in the afternoon as potential late-afternoon thunderstorms roll in. I expect the morning wave to have the advantage, and Rai is off in the fourth-earliest group on Thursday.

The past five seasons at Colonial have produced two solo AM first-round leaders with the other three years having seen multiple first-round leaders, with at least one coming from the AM wave as well.