Best Bets for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open

Welcome to the weekly PGA betting breakdown article. This week the PGA TOUR heads over to Scotland for the co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour, where the top 75 players from each Tour (plus a few special exemptions) will play in the Genesis Scottish Open. 

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in the early week Scottish Open course preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with The Renaissance Club yet, I recommend you do so as it’s a pure links test set on the coast near Edinburgh and will be much different than the typical venues the pros see on a week-to-week basis. 

Today, though, I’m honing in on specific bets and creating a weekly betting card, which I’ll summarize at the bottom of the article. Last week was a good one as we not only nailed the winner with Davis Thompson (+2700) but also nailed a big Top 10 with Eric Cole (+500). That meant a return of 20.1 units and put us well into profit since we started tracking units three weeks back at the Travelers (+15.45). 

Side note: If you’re looking for more plays (across NFL, MLB, NBA, college, and NHL) don’t forget to check our FREE Bet Tracker, where our experts are always loading their favorite bets. 

To give you an idea of how this event has played out of late, here is a quick rundown of the past three winners of the Genesis Scottish Open and how they achieved their victory.

2023 – Rory McIlroy (+800) -15

• McIlroy opened with a 64 and closed with a 68 in extremely windy conditions; his round included birdies on the last two holes, which helped him leap clubhouse leader Robert MacIntyre
• He gained over 5.0 strokes on approach and off the tee, elite ball-striking similar to what we saw from Schauffele in 2022, which allowed both men to overcome poor weather
• McIlroy also came in with great form, having placed top 10 in four straight starts prior to winning in Scotland

2022 – Xander Schauffele (+1800) -7

• Schauffele opened with a 72 and was 11 shots behind first-round leader Cameron Tringale after Round 1; the weather turned significantly worse after Round 1 and Schauffele grinded out three good rounds to eventually win by one
• Schauffele entered off some extremely good form and had won at the Travelers in his previous start (two weeks before Scotland)
• He gained over 5.0 strokes on approach for the week and didn’t lose strokes in any major category

2021 – Min Woo Lee (+15000) -18

• This was the season this event was played as a pure DP World Tour event
• Lee won in a playoff over Matthew Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry and went off as big as +20000 at some books
• Lee finished T17 the week prior in Ireland and shot a final round 64 to get himself into the playoff—the second-best score of the day

Jun 14, 2024; Pinehurst, North Carolina, USA; Min Woo Lee lines up a putt on the 6th hole during the second round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Pinehurst No. 2. Mandatory Credit: Katie Goodale-USA TODAY Sports

Before we get to the good stuff, here are a few more notes about the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open to keep in mind.

• It’s a 150+ man field, with the cut line taking place after Friday. The top 65 players and ties will make the weekend. 
• There are three qualifying spots for the Open Championship on the line this week. The top three finishers who make the cut, AND who haven’t already qualified for the Open, will get the spots. 
• Rory McIlroy leads the field in betting odds (+800, DraftKings). He won this event last year but hasn’t played since the US Open at Pinehurst.
• Scottie Scheffler is not in the field this week, opting for a week of rest over links preparation. The Open has been Scheffler’s worst major to date, so his lack of preparation is somewhat concerning in that regard. 
• The weather this week looks relatively mild, for Scotland. It will be cool (55-60F) but winds are expected to remain under 10 mph the last three days. Early week rain may also work to soften the course.
• Overall, I’d look for decent scoring conditions this season and more receptive greens, although the cool weather will make the course play somewhat longer than normal.

As mentioned in the course preview, I’m targeting approach play specifically this week, and with cooler weather, great mid-to-long players who have upside on these slower greens should flourish. 

Betting Odds for the 2024 Scottish Open

2024 Genesis Scottish Open Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings)

Bets for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play. 

While I have a handful of outright plays, I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one), I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Viktor Hovland Outright +2200

• Top Five (+450; DraftKings)

When we’re breaking down the top 10 players in the betting odds this week, I think you have to like the fact we are getting Viktor Hovland above +2000, on a coastal course—in a field WITHOUT Scottie Scheffler. 

Hovland may have disappointed at the US Open, but his renaissance since switching back to old swing coach Joe Mayo is still in its infancy. He’s fifth in strokes gained approach stats over the last 24 rounds and has been a beast off the tee (OTT) the last two months, gaining 4.6 strokes OTT at the 7,500+ yard Valhalla (PGA Championship) and 5.2 strokes OTT at the shorter TPC River Highlands (Travelers). 

His approach game dipped a little at the Travelers and his short game needs another reset, but two weeks off to prep seems like the perfect remedy for both those issues. The bottom line is that Hovland has thrived at offshore venues like the Renaissance Club—where he doesn’t have to deal with heavy rough around the greens—and the weather this season should be in his favor. 

Jun 8, 2024; Dublin, Ohio, USA; Viktor Hovland walks down the ninth fairway during the third round of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports

Hovland has proven himself capable of handling tougher setups (as his 2023 win at Muirfield exemplifies), but it’s well worth noting that four of his six career PGA wins have come when the winning score hit 19-under or better. With the wind-down and receptive greens likely (thanks to early week rain), the winner may come close to, or even exceed, the 18-under mark we saw win here in 2021. 

I’d happily play him down to +2000 this week given where the other market leaders sit, and I like combining his outright with a top-five play with the conditions this season looking like they should be favorable for his game. 

Tommy Fleetwood Outright (+2200; bet365)

I wrote up Fleetwood in the early week course preview. It’s hard to argue there is much value left on him at +2200, but we are talking about a player who tends to flip the switch once we head over into the British Isles. 

As I mentioned on Monday, his course history and some sneaky form means I am OK with having to pay a bit of a premium this week to get some exposure:

“His approach stats may be a touch weaker than some of the other top players but Fleetwood also showed some progression with his iron play at the Travelers in his last start. He gained 5.1 strokes on approach for the week at TPC River Highlands and has now gained strokes off the tee and on approach in three straight events. 

In terms of suitability for the course and conditions, there are few better suited to a tough week on the links than Tommy, either. The Englishman thrives overseas and has finished T6 and T4 at this venue the last two seasons, and also compiled top 10 finishes at the Open Championship in three of the last four years – including a 2nd place finish from 2019, an event played in rainy and cool conditions, somewhat similar to what is on tap this week.”

Thomas Detry Outright (+6500; bet365)

• Top 10 (+550; bet365)

I vacillated between Detry and 2023 US Open Champion Wyndham Clark (who is finding form again) for this pick, but ultimately sided with Detry, a Belgian who should feel great about being back on the home continent this week. 

Detry’s had a great season thus far, opening with strong efforts at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach (T20 and T4), two coastal courses that do well to show his upside in this kind of environment. He followed that up with a T2 in Houston and then a shock T4 at the PGA Championship about a month later, where he gained an incredible 10.1 strokes putting + around the green, combined. 

His last great result, a T14 at the difficult Pinehurst, also stands out, as he gained 5.1 strokes on approach for the week in the effort, the best mark of his career in that stat. 

Detry’s got great history—having lost in a playoff at the Renaissance Club in 2021—but it’s his performance in the last two majors that really stands out. As we saw last week with Davis Thompson—who finished T9 at Pinehurst just weeks prior to his win—players who outperform at the big events often ride that confidence into even bigger weeks somewhere down the road. 

With a draw that has him situated on my preferred side (Thursday afternoon), the +6500 still on offer is more than attractive enough for me to add him to the card this week. 

Nicolai Hojgaard Outright (+9000; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+700; DraftKings)

Hojgaard is a player I’ll continue to chase at these prices. The Dane is a superb talent who has underperformed on the results sheet of late but doesn’t look far off from finding some form. His iron play has been stellar over the past month or so, as he’s now gained over 2.4 strokes on approach (2.9 strokes average) over his last three starts and was on the verge of a low round or two in Detroit before some short missed putts curtailed his momentum. 

Jun 13, 2024; Pinehurst, North Carolina, USA; Nicolai Hojgaard plays his shot from the second tee box during the first round of the U.S. Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

While he’s bled strokes around and on the greens of late, he’s also thrived at these less conventional, offshore venues (much like Viktor Hovland) landing a T2 at Corales and a T6 at this week’s venue (Renaissance Club) last season. Overall, he’s a player I’d much rather take in easier conditions as his upside off the tee, and with his longer irons, makes him capable of putting up the low rounds needed to get us a win this week. 

A three-time European Tour winner, who at one point held the lead in Round 3 of the Masters this season, he’s a player I’m still high on and happy to add at nearly double the odds he was available at before his last start. 

Romain Langasque Outright (+25000; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+1400; bet365)
• Top 20 (+600; bet365)

I have two speculative plays this week, with massive odds. The first is Romain Langasque, a Frenchman who finished T26 at this event last season, and a player I’ve bet more than a few times over the past two seasons. Langasque’s career on the European Tour has left a little to be desired (one win since turning pro in 2016), but the talent for more is still there. 

He’s got a creative short game, is a solid iron player and ranked top 20 in strokes gained approach and tee to green stats in Germany last week, where he finished T9. He’s an extremely up and down player but has three top five finishes in his last eight starts and may benefit from a later tee time on Thursday (which has some early day winds attached). 

Matthew Southgate Outright (+30000; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+1800; bet365)
• Top 20 (+700; bet365)

Like Langasque, Southgate is a player I’ve bet a few times over the last few seasons, and it always seems to be around this time of year. The Englishman is a great links player, having posted almost all of his best career results on links, or links-styled venues. He finished T6 and T12 at the 2016 and 2017 Open Championships, has two runner-up finishes at the Alfred Dunhill Links event (one from last fall), and comes in off a surprising T4 in Germany last week at the BMW International. 

A solid iron player when he’s on, Southgate ranked second in strokes gained tee to green stats in Germany and seventh in strokes gained approach. Realistically, if he can find some range on these slower greens, his long game looks good enough to challenge for a top 20—and potentially more if he gets a good draw (he’s also starting late on Thursday). 

I like playing small speculative outright wagers on both these last two players, with bigger bet sizing on the Top 20 and Top 10 markets. 

2024 Genesis Scottish Open Placement Bets 

Tom Hoge Top 10 (+650; bet365)

• Top 20 (+300; bet365)

Hoge makes sense for this week’s test on multiple levels. He’s a superb iron player whose lone PGA win came at another tricky coastal course in Pebble Beach. While his overall upside with the putter and around the green is lacking, he’s more than capable of handling himself around a coastal links track, especially one with receptive greens—such as the ones we’re likely to see this week. 

Coming into this week, he ranks first in opportunities gained, 8th in strokes gained approach, and 19th in Par 3 scoring over the last 24 rounds of play. He also finished a tidy T19 at this event last year, shooting 66 in Rounds 2 and 3. Hoge’s yet another player I think will be aided somewhat by the softer conditions, and with his iron game spiking in his last start (T3 Travelers; +8.2 SG: APP), I like his chances of paying off some decent odds in the placing market this weekend. 

Full Card: 

• Viktor Hovland: Outright 0.75 units +2200 | Top 5 0.25 units +450
• Tommy Fleetwood: Outright 0.75 units +2200
• Nicolai Hojgaard: Outright 0.25 units +9000 | Top 10 0.35 units +700
• Thomas Detry: Outright 0.30 units +6600 | Top 10 0.45 units +550 
• Romain Langasque: Outright 0.075 units +25000 | Top 10 +1400 0.1 | Top 20 0.325
• Matthew Southgate: Outright 0.075 units +30000 | Top 10 +1800 0.1 |  Top 20 0.325
• Tom Hoge: Top 10 0.25 units +650 | Top 20 0.65 units +300 

(Note: if you need help weighing unit sizes, don’t forget to use the FREE Fantasy Life Betting Calculator.)