Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is a competitive food-eating contest held annually on July 4th, Independence Day, at Nathan’s Famous location on Coney Island in Brooklyn, New York.
The event is open to all past champions and qualifiers and anyone who receives a special invitation from MLE (Major League Eating), the union that runs this event.
There is a male and female division, and each contestant is given 10 minutes to see how many hot dogs (bun included) they can eat before the clock runs out.
The defending champions for this event are Joey Chestnut (62) and Miki Sudo (39.5). Chestnut has won this event nine of the past 10 years and usually goes off as a massive favorite. However, in a dramatic turn of events, the 16-time 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest winner was banned from this year's event earlier in June, by MLE.
While the loss of Chestnut may hurt ratings, as a bettor, I love the chaos it has created. Chestnut would be a -2000 favorite (or shorter) if he were eating but, without him, the current favorite (Geoffrey Esper) is sitting with an implied probability of barely over 50%.
That means that for the first time in a while, we’ll be forced to look further down the board and consider all of the non-Chestnut options. Additionally, to try and make up for the loss of Chestnut, MLE also gave a special celebrity invite to Golf and Instagram influencer Paige Spiranac. Right now, her projection on Underdog is set at 7.0 hotdogs and it’s likely entirely based on this video of her “training” for this event.
First, I just want to make it clear, that I am not judging at all here. Her effort is admirable. I would have quit after two or 2.5 dogs, as one tends to tide me over for a couple of days. However, while Spinanac’s involvement is a publicity stunt, it’s worth noting that she used to be a competitive golfer and I would guess her competitive juices will kick in at some point during this July 4th competition.
We’ll discuss her Higher/Lower a little more, along with others, below.
Betting Odds for the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
- Geoffrey Esper - -120
- James Webb - +200
- Nick Wehry - +550
- Patrick Bertoletti - +800
- Field - +2000
- Gideon Oji - +4000
- Derek Hendrickson - +7500
- Darrien Thomas - +7500
- Max Stanfor - +7500
- George Chiger - +7500
Here’s a quick recap of the top players.
Geoffrey Esper (age 49) -120
- PB: 51 hot dogs
- 2023 result: 2nd, 49 hot dogs
Esper is the favorite and was as short as -200 at one point to win this event (once Chestnut got ruled out).
He’s finished 2nd at this event each of the past three years, so if ever there was a time for him to step up and claim glory, this year would be it.
James Webb (age 35) +200
- PB: 47.5 hot dogs
- 2023 result: 3rd, 47.5 hot dogs
Webb is relatively new to the hot dog scene, as this year will be just his third competing at Coney Island. However, the Australian is a seasoned competitive eater and certainly has the age advantage over Esper.
Nick Wehry (age 35) +550
Wehry is another veteran to take note of. The 35-year-old has finished fourth at this event the last two seasons and does hold a world record (for eating 50 hard-boiled eggs in three minutes and four seconds).
He’s also engaged to woman’s champ Miki Sudo, so he’ll have a good coach in his corner at the very least.
Best Bet for the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
James Webb Outright (+200; bet365)
Esper is the deserved favorite this year with Joey Chestnut out. Last year he finished second to Chestnut, downing 49 hot dogs, two short of his best. However, the 49-year-old is no spring chicken and it’s a little worrisome that he missed his PB by a full two dogs in 2023. The last time he cracked 50 hot dogs in this event was back in 2021.
In contrast, we have Webb who is a competitive eater from Australia and has won some big competitions in other food arenas of late. Just a few weeks ago he won the Salvation Army National Donut Day by downing 70 glazed donuts in 10 minutes.
He’s relatively new to the hot dog scene but is only 35 years old and set a PB at this event last season of 47 dogs – six better than he managed in 2022, which was also the first year he competed at this event.
To paraphrase John C. Reilly from Step Brothers, I will take the young calf over the old bull. Webb feels like he’s surging while Esper now has to feel the heat as the event favorite. Considering the 33% implied probability we’re getting at +200, Webb feels like the right side to be on for this July 4th.
Underdog Picks for the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
Alright, after researching the main players and the projections on Underdog, I managed to put together what I feel is a strong 3-way card.
With Underdog giving us a solid 6x multiplier for a 3-way, I figured I’d stop there, but you can get this up to 20x by adding in two more selections and making it a 5-way.
Michelle Lesco HIGHER than 25.5 hot dogs
Lesco is a veteran of this event and former champion from back in 2021 when she took down 30.75 hot dogs. Her total last year wasn’t as impressive as she topped out at 24.25, but here’s thinking the veteran will look to this year to rebound.
Overall, she’s been over this total in two of the past four years, and with an amateur/celebrity in the field, Tesco likely won’t be looking to take things easy. I like taking advantage of this lower number for 2024.
Nick Wehry LOWER than 44.5 hot dogs
Wehry is a multi-time participant at this event and did manage to go over this total last season, dowing 45 hot dogs for a fourth-place finish. However, the 35-year-old may have hit his ceiling in 2023 as his previous results don’t really suggest that he’s someone who will go over 44.5 on the regular.
In 2022, Wehry topped out at just 40 hot dogs, and in 2021 he also went under 44.5, topping out at 44. I think 44.5 is pretty close to Wehry’s ceiling already making the LOWER in this case, the better play.
Darren Breeder HIGHER than 41.5 hot dogs
Breeder is an interesting study. He’s been a part of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest numerous times, dating back to his first appearance in 2016, when he ate 28 hot dogs. However, since then, Breeder has put in several bigger days at Nathan’s, including a 50 hot dog performance from 2019.
Overall, he’s posted results of 43 in 2018, 50 in 2019, 42 in 2020, and 43 in 2021. He hasn’t competed at this event the last two years which is likely why his total is so low. I like buying the proverbial dip on Breeder and going over on his hot dog total as well.
Bonus: Paige Sprianac HIGHER than 7.0 hot dogs
I didn’t put Paige in the initial card, but after thinking about it, I do think she’ll blow this number out of the water.
She’s used to being in front of a lens, given her role as an influencer on social media, and has likely set herself a soft goal of reaching 10. I bet she at least gets 80% of the way there.
