With the calendar turning to April, that means the end of March Madness is near.
68 teams entered the tournament and now only four remain with North Carolina State, Purdue, Alabama, and reigning champs Connecticut Huskies left standing. You can read how I am betting this slate below, as well as watch our Final Four breakdown with me and Matthew Freedman over on YouTube.
On top of these best bets, also be sure to check out Matthew Freedman’s player prop projections and picks in the Free Picks Channel in the Fantasy Life discord. Player prop lines move fast, so be sure to turn on notifications to get the best line possible as soon as he posts it.
Best Bets for the 2024 NCAA Final Four
(1) Purdue ML (Parlay with UConn) vs (11) NC State (-229, Caesars)
Starting with a more advanced approach, taking a square-looking wager like this may help keep your account “healthy” in the eyes of the sportsbook.
Limiting has been more rampant than ever with sportsbooks having the ability to lessen the size of your wager to practically nothing. They tend to do this to those they deem sharp, booting them off the book entirely.
Taking a wager like this may mask sharp action as parlays are largely deemed a “suckers bet” and will help prolong the life of your account.
As for the wager itself, I believe this is the correct approach to attack the North Carolina State/Purdue game as the Wolfpack have managed to dodge negative regression, as well as give you the ability to monitor the start of the game without fear of missing out on a good live number.
Focusing more on the looming regression, the Wolfpack’s tournament success has stemmed from their ability to hold their opponents to horrid shooting without covering them. A tool that I love to help illustrate this is from a group called Shot Quality, which gauges the quality of shots throughout a game.
While North Carolina State may have held their tournament opponents to just 24.4% from three, as well as an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 39.8% per TeamRankings, it was hardly because of improved defensive play. Opponents have run cold and have been unable to capitalize on open looks.
Shot Quality illustrates this with true shooting results, showing that North Carolina State has been well below average with its coverage. They also provide true results with shooting regressing towards the mean, having the Wolfpack losing to Oakland and Marquette in the earlier rounds.
They now face a Purdue squad that excels with creating separation with their shooters, as well as fielding Zach Edey who generates high-quality looks in the interior. Marquette already laid a blueprint on how to create the looks, attacking DJ Burns Jr with the pick and roll as he is a sloppy defender when crashing down to the rim.
This will force North Carolina State into having to throw doubles in the interior as they have no one who can single-cover Edey, creating gaps in their coverage for Purdue’s guards to exploit. When wide open, expect shooting regression to swing back toward Purdue’s favor as they are a lethal shooting team.
Purdue’s shooters rank second in Three Point Completion Percentage by shooting 40.6% from deep and 13th in Effective Field Goal Percentage at 56.2%. Should Zach Edey continue to avoid foul trouble, then Purdue should have no issue with running their offense against a North Carolina State defense that ranks 44th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) per Kenpom.
On the other side of the court, North Carolina State will have a tough time attacking Purdue’s drop coverage. DJ Burns will struggle against Edey’s size and length, even with his elite footwork that has routinely burned opposing defenders. Even if Burns creates space with a quick first step, Edey can easily recover the gap in coverage with an outstretched arm.
With Edey manning Burns, that allows the rest of the Purdue defenders to face-guard the Wolfpack’s off-ball scorers. This lessens the quality of the passing lanes for Burns, as well as gives Purdue a great chance to smother North Carolina State’s jump shots.
That is detrimental for a Wolfpack squad that was already an average shooting unit at best heading into the game, ranking in the middle of the pact in Two Point Completion Percentage, Three Point Percentage, and Effective Field Goal Percentage.
Even with the previous advantages mentioned, as well as looming negative regression for NCST’s defense, you may be better off avoiding the number and backing Purdue in a two-team moneyline parlay with UConn.
This also allows you to monitor the start of the game to see if the Wolfpack gets aggressive early, doing their best effort to get Edey in foul trouble. If they do, then the security of Purdue’s moneyline becomes a lot more valuable as the team as a whole gets more vulnerable.
(4) Alabama vs. (1) UConn (-10.5) (-110, Caesars)
While Purdue’s breakdown was more complex, the reasoning to back UConn will be a lot more straightforward. That is because Alabama will be ill-equipped to slow down the Huskies' relentless offensive attack while struggling to implement their own offensive scheme.
It’s astonishing to learn that UConn’s offense has actually been running cold per their season averages in the tournament while also continuing to blow out their opponents. Even when the jumpers don't fall, UConn still generates high-quality looks with their aggressiveness on the boards for second-chance opportunities and high-quality looks near the rim.
That spells potential doom for a Crimson Tide defense that ranks 105th in AdjD, 245th in Defensive Rebounding Rate, and 327th in Opposing Free Throw Rate. Even if UConn runs cold again, they should have no issue with cleaning up the glass while simultaneously getting fouled for extra scoring opportunities at the free-throw line.
On the other side of the court, UConn is equipped to slow down Alabama’s offensive attack that revolves around fast-paced three-point attempts and looks at the rim. Much like Purdue with Zach Edey, the Huskies Donovan Clingan serves as an anchor at the rim which allows the rest of the Huskies to stretch out and smother opposing looks at the perimeter.
Alabama lives and dies by the three, now facing a defense that can contest their looks over the full course of forty minutes. UConn ranks 28th in Opposing Three Point Completion Percentage by holding opposing offenses to just 30.9%, and third in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage at 44.1%.
Their ability to smother looks at the perimeter while Clingan anchors the interior has played a large part in their fourth-placed mark in AdjD. Expect Alabama’s offense to fall hard back to reality, failing to stay within UConn’s scoring pace as they consistently generate high-quality looks. I played UConn at -10.5 and would take them up to -12.
