In case you missed it, I had a top-10 mock in April … and still managed to lose money betting on the NFL draft for the first time in my life.

So my feelings toward the 2024 NFL rookies are mixed.

On the one hand, this class has several top-tier prospects who could be great fantasy contributors for years to come. On the other hand, I like money — which brings me back to this rookie class.

I've just recently updated my 2024 NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), so now I'm ready to dive into the season-long player futures and awards markets.

Here are four rookie bets I like (logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).

Bo Nix, QB - Broncos

Most Regular Season Rookie Passing Yards 

Despite six QBs being drafted in Round 1 (gross, and I'm not at all still bitter about that), three passers can be cursorily eliminated from consideration: J.J. McCarthy, Drake Maye, and Michael Penix seem respectively likely to open the season behind the veteran trio of Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, and Kirk Cousins.

So that leaves Nix and the two players selected at the top of the draft: Caleb Williams (+100) and Jayden Daniels (+250).

Using the Fantasy Life Odds Calculator, one can see that the implied probability of one of Williams, Daniels, and Nix finishing No. 1 is only 95.3%. 

  • Williams: 50%
  • Daniels: 28.6%
  • Nix: 16.7% 

So I think there's some value in this market anyway, and I'm inclined to think it lies with Nix, who probably has the best playcaller of the group in HC Sean Payton.

Nix has something of a popgun arm — but so did Drew Brees, who led the league in passing seven times in Payton's offense.

Williams has the superior surrounding talent (WRs D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze), and Daniels is the more dynamic player (2023 Heisman Trophy, 13.6 adjusted yards per attempt), but Nix might lead the class in pass attempts (the Broncos have a lowly win total of 5.5), and when it comes to rookie QBs no one really knows anything anyway.

Williams and Daniels should be favored ahead of Nix, but I think his odds to win this award are closer to 25% than the 16.7% implied by the current market.

Malik Nabers, WR - Giants

Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards 

Marvin Harrison is a +175 favorite in this market, and that strikes me as ridiculous.

Harrison should be favored: He was an easy top-10 pick, and he will face little target competition as a rookie.

But the exact same can be said for Nabers, who might have even less target competition, given that Harrison has to deal with emerging TE Trey McBride on the Cardinals, whereas TE Darren Waller left the Giants this offseason via retirement.

Nabers has a very real chance to match (if not exceed) Harrison in aerial opportunities this season.

And as talented as Harrison is, Nabers was just as impressive at a younger age in 2023.

  • Harrison (21 years): 100.9 yards per game | Unanimous All-American
  • Nabers (20 years): 120.7 yards per game | Unanimous All-American

The sharp Dwain McFarland, who manages our official Fantasy Life player prognostications, has Harrison and Nabers with the following projected receiving stat lines.

  • Harrison: 133 targets | 86 receptions | 1,079 yards
  • Nabers: 131 targets | 85 receptions | 1,017 yards

When both players are projected for more than 1,000 yards across a 17-game season, a difference of 62 yards is almost negligible. It's not a coin flip between Harrison and Nabers, but there's no reason Harrison should have a 36.4% implied probability to lead all rookies in receiving while Nabers has just 14.3% odds.

In reality, I think Harrison's odds should be around 30%; Nabers' odds, 25%.

Jayden Daniels, QB - Commanders

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Williams is the consensus market favorite at +125 to +140 across the industry. He should be the favorite, and over the past two decades the award has tended to go to QBs before all other positions.

  • QB Winners: 50%
  • RB Winners: 30%
  • WR Winners: 20%

But it's hard to believe that Williams should have a 44.4% implied probability to win the award while Daniels has only 13.3% odds.

They collectively went at the top of the draft, had the two most impressive college campaigns of the past two seasons, and won the past two Heisman Trophies.

Williams is great, but Daniels has the kind of playmaking skill set (especially as a runner) that could give him instance success in the NFL and catch the attention of Associated Press voters.

A quick glimpse at some of the award winners of the past 20 years reveals that it's not at all uncommon (especially recently) for a QB who wasn't the first selected in the class to emerge as the best offensive rookie.

In a class with six Round 1 QBs (again, I'm not bitter) and seven Round 1 WRs, it feels aggressive for Williams to be this substantial of a favorite — and Daniels is his best competition.

Jared Verse, OLB - Rams

Defensive Rookie of the Year

  • Bet: +1111 (BetMGM)
  • Limit: +800

Of the past 20 award winners, 18 were Round 1 selections. What a guy does on the field matters — but if he wasn't a top-32 pick in April then he's almost certainly not winning this award.

We've seen only three CBs win DROY in the past two decades, all of whom (Marcus Peters, Marshon Lattimore, and Sauce Gardner) were selected no later than No. 18.

Apologies to Quinyon Mitchell (No. 22) and Terrion Arnold (No. 24), but I doubt they're in the same tier as rookies as Peters, Lattimore, and Gardner.

So that leaves the trench players.

Based on the depth charts of their respective teams, all of these players — except for Verse — will likely need to compete with veterans for playing time and will certainly be in a regular rotation.

Verse, however, has a real chance to start in Week 1, and he has the freakish athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6'4" and 254 lbs.) to be an instant impact player.

I think he has no less than a 12.5% chance to win.