I've recently updated my 2024 NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), so now I'm diving into the season-long player props market and publishing a series of articles highlighting bets I like.

Last article, I looked at rookie futures and awards markets.

  • Most Regular Season Rookie Passing Yards
  • Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year

In this article, I'm looking at rookie season-long player props (logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).

Jayden Daniels, QB - Commanders

Over 3,025.5 Yards Passing

  • Bet: -112 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: 3,474.4

It's hard for a rookie QB drafted in Round 1 to start at least 14 games and not have more than 3,025.5 yards passing.

Over the past decade, just one QB has managed to thread that unfortunate needle: Bryce Young.

  • Bryce Young (16 games, 2023): 2,877 yards
  • C.J. Stroud (15 games, 2023): 4,108 yards
  • Trevor Lawrence (17 games, 2021): 3,641 yards
  • Mac Jones (17 games, 2021): 3,801 yards
  • Justin Herbert (15 games, 2020): 4,336 yards
  • Kyler Murray (16 games, 2019): 3,722 yards
  • Carson Wentz (16 games, 2016): 3,782 yards
  • Jameis Winston (16 games, 2015): 4,042 yards

So unless Daniels ends up missing more than a few games or having one of the most disappointing rookie seasons of all time, this should be a mark he can hit.

Because Daniels is such a high-end runner (135-1,134-10 rushing in 12 games last year, No. 1 dual-threat QB in the 2019 recruitment class), this line in my opinion is artificially low: It likely assumes that he will scramble at a high rate and thus have reduced pass attempts.

And it also might assume that Daniels — because of his propensity to run — has a higher injury probability than the average NFL QB. (And that might be true but is unproven.)

But Daniels was a solid passer throughout his college career (8.3 yards per attempt at Arizona State in 2019-21; 9.4 at LSU in 2022-23), and his circumstances are not as bad as one might expect: OC Kliff Kingsbury is an acceptable playcaller (Murray won his 2019 OROY with Kingsbury), and the offensive line and skill-position group are respectably average.

Barring a notable injury, Daniels should be able to fly by this number.

Malik Nabers, WR - Giants

Over 850.5 Yards Receiving

  • Bet: -112 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: 1,000.4

Oh, baby.

Marvin Harrison has a prop of 1,050.5, and I think that line is a way better number for Nabers than 850.5.

Harrison and Nabers are incredibly similar.

  • Both were top-10 selections in April.
  • Both have little target competition on their respective teams.
  • Both were Tier 1 prospects in Dwain McFarland's 2024 WR Rookie Super Model.
  • Both were unanimous collegiate All-Americans in 2023 with over 100 yards receiving per game.

Unsurprisingly, their official 2024 Fantasy Life projections (managed by the sharp McFarland) are comparable.

  • Harrison: 133 targets | 86 receptions | 1,079 yards
  • Nabers: 131 targets | 85 receptions | 1,017 yards

If Harrison's prop line were 850.5 yards, the entire industry would be telling you nonstop that you need to sell all your possessions and then borrow as much money as possible to bet the over.

I'm not saying that — because that would be a ridiculous and irresponsible thing to say — but Nabers offers a Harrison-like opportunity with this number, which should be at least 100 yards higher.

Rome Odunze, WR - Bears

Over 675.5 Yards Receiving

  • Bet: -110 (DraftKings)
  • Projection: 820.4

OK, I need to say something. Generally, I hate betting overs. In season-long markets especially, unders tend to be sharp.

And betting the over on a rookie slated to be the No. 3 WR on a team with a rookie QB … that just feels gross. I hate myself a little bit for highlighting three overs in a row.

I mean, I hate myself anyway, as a general state of being. But now I hate myself a smidgeon more because of the streak of overs.

But I'm talking about rookies, who stand in stark contrast to veterans. Sportsbooks have a decent sense for how to set lines for established players, but rookies present a challenge that the books (in my opinion) struggle to address adequately. Instead of projecting rookies in a forward-thinking and realistically expansive manner, they often underestimate them and discount the potential they have to earn opportunities and accumulate production.

As a result, I think it's possible (maybe even probable?) that the sharp side for rookies is actually the over.

And that brings us to Odunze, who (like Harrison and Nabers) was selected in the top 10 in April after earning All-American accolades in 2023.

Despite being the third option behind WRs D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, Odunze has the talent and draft capital to exceed expectations within an offense likely to be revitalized with the offseason addition of talent-laden QB Caleb Williams.

I'm yet to see a high-quality projection set that has Odunze projected below even 775.5 yards receiving.