Best Bets for the 2024 Olympic Men's Golf Tournament

The Men’s Olympic Golf event kicks off in the early morning this Thursday, as 60 players will vie for the medals at France’s Le Golf National. The field comprises several top professional golfers with recent major winners Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler currently leading the betting odds. 

Golf was played at the Olympics back in 1904 and 1908, but was kept out of the games until Rio 2016, when it was reinstated as an official sport.

This year will mark the third time that Golf has been held in the Olympics since 2016, with Justin Rose and Xander Schauffele capturing gold at the previous two games.

While several pros did pass on Olympic berths at Rio, the Olympic event has been gaining in popularity among the players and this season will feature the most elite Olympic field to date. Overall, eight of the top 10 players from the OWGR are in attendance and there are several former major winners and recent PGA TOUR, and LIV TOUR winners, teeing it up.

Here is a quick breakdown of how the last two iterations of Men’s Olympic golf played out. 

2021 Toyko – Xander Schauffele (+1000) -18

• Won his first big event of the season with a solid effort in Japan
• Had posted a top 10 at the US Open a month prior and had made the cut at the Open in his last start before the Olympics, finishing T25
• Had gained over 5.0 strokes on approach in two of his final three starts before the Olympics
• Silver: Rory Sabattini (+15000)
• Bronze: CT Pan (+12500)

2016 Rio – Justin Rose (+1200) -16

• Rose entered the Olympics winless on the season (much like Schauffele) but had shown well at the previous two majors, posting T22 finishes at the Open and PGA Championship (played in late July that year)
• The veteran had been sharp with his putter and short game, gaining 6.7 strokes combined ATG and Putting in his final warmup start
• Silver: Henrick Stenson (+600)
• Bronze: Matt Kuchar (+1800)

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in the early week Olympic Men’s Golf course preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with Le Golf National yet I recommend you do so as the Albatros Course is a venue that features a lot of water, skinny fairways, and smaller greens that will present challenging approach shots to the players on nearly every hole.

Today, though, I’m honing in on the bets and creating a weekly card, which I’ll summarize at the bottom of the article. Before we get to the good stuff, here are a few more notes about the 2024 Men’s Olympic Golf event to keep in mind.

• It’s a 60-man field with no cut. Each player in the competition will get to play four rounds.
• The event will be played at Le Golf National, a tricky Par 71 measuring between 7,200 and 7,300 yards.
• This is only the third time this event has been played at the Olympics over the last 50 years (2016 Rio and 2021 Toyko).
• The last two winners had odds of +1000 and +1200, so favorites have done well in this limited-field setting.
• Each of the last two winners of the Olympic gold medal in golf finished top-30 at the year’s final major (the Open) played a couple of weeks prior.
• The forecast is for highs in the 80F range with winds of 8-9mph expected on all four days.
• Rain may work to soften up the course early in the week.

Olympic Men’s Golf Classic Betting Odds

2024 Olympic Men’s Golf Top 10 in betting odds:

(Odds via DraftKings)

2024 Olympic Men’s Golf Classic Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play.

While I have a handful of outright plays I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Collin Morikawa (America) Outright (+1200; bet365)

Morikawa sets up nicely for this week’s more technical setup. A winner in brutal conditions at the Florida-based Concession Golf Club back in 2021, and a former Open Champion, Morikawa should benefit from Le Golf National’s treacherous routing and emphasis on elite approach play.

He comes in ranked top five in GIR’s gained, Fairways Gained, SG: Approach, and SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds and has been a factor at all four majors; landing a T16 at the recent Open Championship and a T14 at the US Open in June. While he’s gone winless on the season, Morikawa has been adept at tackling courses outside of the USA over his career, landing wins at Royal St. George’s, in his first ever Open Championship appearance, the Earth Course, in Dubai for the DP World Championships and Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Japan, for last fall’s Zozo Championship.

A near-medalist in Toyko back in 2021, when he was part of a wild seven-man playoff for the bronze medal, Morikawa will certainly have his sights set on avenging that loss this year. His form is similar to that of the last two winners of this event and, like both Schauffele and Rose, he comes in still seeking his first win of the calendar year, despite showcasing excellent form all season.

Given the format (60 players, no cut), I’d have no problem playing Morikawa down to +1200 as we’ve seen him go off at similar prices against much larger and more difficult fields in recent weeks.

Jason Day (Australia) Each Way 1/5 Top Three (+8000; bet 365)

• Top 10 (+350; FanDuel)

Perspective can be huge at an event as big as the Olympics, and heading into 2024, no one has been more transparent about his motivations for competing this year than Aussie Jason Day.

Now 36 years old, Day will be competing at his second Olympics but has talked at length already about how much he regrets passing on Rio in 2016, an event that took place when Day was ranked first in the OWGR at the time. He’s also spoken about why he views this week as such an important event.

“Recently, I started getting close to a particular athlete who really competed and prepared towards this Olympics, but didn't qualify this year,” he said. “With that interaction, I learned how very special the Olympics is, and it's something very impactful. So I want to play for those athletes who are not here, even though they prepare their best.”

Narratives aside, Day has also played some very good golf of late and may be peaking at just the right time to make an impact. He’s posted progressively better finishes in each of his last three starts and averaged over a stroke on approach, per round, at the Open, where he finished T13. Day’s approach game rounding into form is significant as his three top 10’s in 2024 have all come on weeks when he gained strokes with his irons. 

Given how well he’s handled tougher setups like TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill throughout his career, if Day can bring that same upside with his ball-striking this week, there is no reason why he can’t compete on the more technical Albatros Course; a venue that has produced a ton of veteran winners over the last decade.

Byeong Hun An (South Korea) Each-Way 1/5 Top 5 (+6000; bet365)

I wrote about An in the early week course preview this week. As a South Korean, An had to beat out several big names just to get to Paris and has had a very underrated season on the PGA TOUR, which included a playoff loss back in January at the technical Waialae Country Club.

For his career, he’s also found a lot of success at PGA National and TPC Scottsdale, two courses that compare well at Le Golf National in many respects.

As I mentioned on Monday, An’s form has been trending in the right direction of late and he’s another player who has spoken about how big an event this week’s tournament is for him:

“An’s coming off a solid Open where he finished T13 and has showcased some much-improved ball striking over his past two starts; he also ranks 10th in GIRs gained over the last 24 rounds

Moreover, he was confident with the putter and one of the leaders in strokes gained around the green stats at the Open, an area which should be of vital importance around the Albatros course given that we should expect lower than normal GIR%s.

While it’s hard to pinpoint the exact motivation levels of some of the top names, that shouldn’t be a problem with An, who stated in an interview last week that he’ll be treating the Olympics as one of the season's biggest events.”

I think An’s more than capable of finding his way around this setup and with an each-way bet giving us +1120 for a top-five place, he makes for another nice addition to the portfolio this week.

Olympic Men’s Golf Longshots and Placing Bets

Mathieu Pavon (France) Outright (+8000; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+400; FanDuel)

France has already had a great start to the Olympics. As of writing, they have 17 medals and sit second in that category just behind the USA with 20. The national pride should be seething through both Victor Perez and Mathieu Pavon (the two French participants) as players tee off this Thursday and both men have shown some great form already on the PGA TOUR this year.

I took a position on Perez last week when the futures opened, but with Pavon still available at +8000 for an outright, he’s the preferred target for me at the moment. The 31-year-old has shown well against elite competition all season, posting a win at the famously tough Torrey Pines in January and a T5 at the equally difficult Pinehurst, which hosted the US Open in June.

Pavon’s never had a ton of success around Le Golf National, but his iron game has been a strength all season and, quite frankly, he’s never played the course with the level of form he’s showcasing right now. As a representative for the host country, there should be no letup from the Frenchman over the weekend making him a great player to ladder in both the outright and top 10 markets.

Nick Taylor (Canada) Each-Way 1/5 Top 3 (+27500; bet365)

• Top 10 (+850; FanDuel)
• Top 20 (+250; FanDuel)

Taylor is another veteran who should benefit from Le Golf National’s setup. A precision iron player with one of the best short games in golf, the 36-year-old has already posted wins at similar venues like Pebble Beach and TPC Scottsdale. 

The Canadian enters this week having missed the cut at the Open Championship but trending well with his ball striking. He gained over 3.1 and 2.8 strokes on approach at the Travelers and Scottish Open, respectively, and was positive with his irons again at the Open gaining over 3.0 strokes on approach in Round 1.

His putting has been terrible of late but he’s shown the ability to spike hard on the greens when he’s dialed in, gaining 4.5 strokes putting at the PLAYERS in March and 8.9 strokes at TPC Scottsdale in February. 

Taylor comes with some warts, but at +27500 (bet365) for a top-3 each-way, he’s not a player I’m willing to pass on. Given how well the four-time PGA winner has performed under pressure the last two seasons (two playoff victories), and how well he sets up for Le National, I also like taking advantage of his current odds by laddering him in the top 10 (down to +700) and top 20 (down to +200) markets.

Full Betting Card for the 2024 Men's Olympic Golf Tournament

• Collin Morikawa Outright +1200 1.1 units
• Jason Day Each-Way (top 3) +8000 0.25 units / 0.25 units | Top 10 +350 0.8 units
• Byeong Hun An Each-Way (top 5) +5500 0.3 units / 0.3 units
• Mathieu Pavon +8000 outright | top 10 +400 0.2 units / 0.8 units
• Nick Taylor Each-Way (top 3) +27500 0.1 units / 0.1 units | Top 10 +850 0.2 units / Top 20 0.6 units +250