Best Bets for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open

The 2024 RBC Canadian Open is back this season and will take us to lush Hamilton Golf and Country Club, a course that also hosted this event in 2012 and 2019.

The Canadian Open remains the country’s lone PGA event and National Open but for several reasons, it has continued to fall in a poor section of the PGA schedule, landing two events before the US Open, and one week before a signature event (The Memorial).

Hence, this event has continued to have issues attracting top talent, and this year is no different. Seven of the world’s top 30 golfers are in attendance but event favorite and two-time Canadian Open winner Rory McIlroy is the only top-five player to make the journey up North. McIlroy won the Canadian Open the last time it was hosted by Hamilton G&CC in 2019 and he’s essentially become the event’s de facto headliner.

In a lot of ways, this event has also become somewhat of a haven for international players who seem to like the more laid-back environment they often produce in Canada.

Last year we saw Canadian Nick Taylor and Englishman Tommy Fleetwood duke it out in a playoff and Valenzuela’s own Jhonattan Vegas won this event in back-to-back seasons in 2016 and 2017. Regardless, with a shorter parkland course in play and a weaker field – and a lot of question marks surrounding most of the top players – I would expect another wide-open event this season with more than a few surprise names likely to land inside the top 10 come Sunday. 

Some other quick notes about the event:

• It’s a full-field event with 156 players; the top 65 and ties will get to play the weekend
• Several Canadian players have received special exemptions into the event this week. Wil Bateman, Stuart MacDonald, Myles Creighton, and Matt Anderson are a few of the names to keep an eye on.
• Last year was the first time that a Canadian won the Canadian Open since 1954 (Pat Fletcher).
• This is the third time since 2010 that Hamilton G&CC will have hosted this event (2012, 2019). It was renovated recently in 2019. 
• The US Open takes place in two weeks, and US Open qualifiers run on the Monday directly after this event so keep on those as well if you are looking for some futures for the third major of the season.

RBC Canadian Open Betting Odds

We only have one top-10 player in the field this week and that’s reflected in the odds at the moment. Rory McIlroy is not only coming in having won two times over his last three starts but he’s also proven to love these shorter Canadian parkland courses that often end up hosting this event. The Northern Irishman has now taken home the trophy at two of the last three versions of the Canadian Open and sits at a very short +400. 

McIlroy’s pre-event odds this week are as short as they have been all season but considering they are longer than Scheffler’s were last week, it’s likely that he’ll still get plenty of action from bettors. 

After McIlroy, there is a contingent of seven players between +1600 and +2500 who all have their flaws, even if they are only minor ones. Corey Conners is the shortest-priced Canadian this year at +2000 and he has been striking it well but there it’s also understandably a short number when you consider the level of players sitting just behind him in odds.

2024 RBC Canadian Open Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

Course Preview for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open

• Hamilton Golf and Country Club – Ancaster, Ontario
• Par 70, 7,089 yards; Greens: Bentgrass
• Architect (year): Harry S. Colt (1916) 
• Renovation Architect (year): Martin Ebert (2019)
• Past winners (and odds): 
  • 2023: Nick Taylor +15000
  • 2022: Rory McIlroy +800
  • 2021: Covid
  • 2020: Covid
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy +800

Hamilton Golf and Country Club is a short Par 70 that was designed way back in 1916 by famous designer Harry Colt. It’s a parkland track with little to no water that plays relatively straightforwardly and relies on faster greens and tighter around the green lies for protection. 

In 2019 the club hosted the Canadian Open and didn't offer up much of a challenge for the pros. McIlroy decimated the course that week getting to 22-under par and using his driver to cut corners and make birdie opportunities out of many of the par 4s.

While the rough will be grown up this season, it’s still unlikely to offer a stiff challenge. Some bunkers were added after the 2019 renovations but longer hitters will still be able to navigate the venue with a driver off the tee on many holes as there is plenty of space at Hamilton between the fairways and trees – which sets it apart from a tougher Par 70-like Colonial, the venue which hosted last week’s event. 

In terms of comparables on the PGA the Old White Course at the Greenbrier (last seen in 2021)  and Sedgefield Country Club stand out as two of the courses that correlate well with what we’ll see at Hamilton. As such, shorter hitters will be able to compete this week, and in 2019 elite iron players and putters like Webb Simpson, Graeme McDowell, and Brandt Snedeker were able to climb into the top 10 without much effort.

The scoring should be low again this year thanks to some wet weather on Tuesday but with many top players skipping this week, a tighter leaderboard should still be expected. Approach play and putting are two of the most important areas to emphasize but players who can separate themselves via the off-the-tee or around the green areas of the game can gain an advantage as well. 

Best Bets for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While many are pure outright plays for me I do like playing many of these names in the placing department as well and I’ve included placing options for some names if you are constructing a betting card – and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (a win and a place bet, in one) then I’ve included that option where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Alex Noren Outright (+2600; bet365)

Noren’s last missed cut came at the Scottish Open in July of 2023, and there is little doubt that as bettors, we’re getting a player at the top of his form. The Swede has had plenty of close calls over the past eight months, landing a T3 at the Shriners, a T2 at the Bermuda Championship, and a solo 3rd at the Byron Nelson just two starts ago.

His T12 at the year’s second major stands out as well. While he struggled with Valhalla’s length off the tee, his approach game made up for the difference gaining him 5.9 strokes on approach for the week. 

Short games around a venue like Hamilton with heavy doglegs and smaller greens are always crucial, a fact that also plays to Noren’s strength. He’s ranked first in Strokes Gained Around the Green stats over the last 24 rounds and has gained over 2.0 strokes ATG in each of his last four measured starts.

While he didn’t play well at Hamilton in 2019 just the fact he’s making the trek up North this week should have our interest peeked. Still winless on the PGA TOUR this has the makings of a “business trip” for Noren who undoubtedly would love to get the stigma of never having won a PGA TOUR event off his back.

This week’s short course and weaker field have got his attention and at +2700 his odds place him at the backend of the second-tier of players this week which is good for me to warrant an outright wager. 

Cameron Young Outright (+3000; bet365)

It does feel like a large conglomerate of golf bettors may have finally thrown in the towel on Young, which in my mind also makes this a perfect spot to take a shot with the talented American.

Young has done every but win to this point in his PGA TOUR career. He’s accumulated multiple top-five finishes in major championships over the past two seasons and posted his second straight top-10 at Augusta National a month ago. 

A win has still eluded Young to date and while many expect bigger things from him in the future there is little doubt that a confidence-building trophy, at a smaller less star-studded field like the one we’re getting this week, may be exactly what he needs to get the floodgates open. Hamilton is a shorter course which will undoubtedly allow several different styles to compete but it’s also the same course that McIlroy tore to pieces in 2019 with his driver in a performance that saw him gain 6.9 strokes OTT.

And if we’re choosing names who could potentially mimic McIlroy’s heroics in that area for this year’s event? Young’s name would be at the top of many aficionado’s lists. He gained 5.0 strokes off the tee in his runner-up finish at the Valspar in March and showcased better driving at Valhalla two weeks ago (+2.4 OTT). 

While the rest of his game wasn’t up to snuff at the second major I expect a better effort from Young this week who has excelled at these weaker field events and still looks very playable at +2500 or better.

RBC Canadian Open Longshot Bets 

Matt Wallace +7500 Each Way 1/5 Top 8

• Top 20 (+320; bet365)

Wallace is a nice under-the-radar play for me this week. The Englishman isn't necessarily the most likable player on the PGA as his somewhat cool and self-talkative demeanor can rub people the wrong way.

However, regardless of your stance on him as a player, he is a proven winner. As a pro he’s won five times across the European Tour and the PGA, grabbing his first PGA win last season at the opposite-field Corales event. 

He was in great form this fall, landing a T9 and a T2 at the tail end of the DP World Tour season, and his game has started to pick up steam again. His T4 at the Byron Nelson came off the back of some very solid iron play (+4.3 strokes) and through the halfway mark of the PGA Championship, he was sitting inside the top 20. Wallace eventually dropped back on Sunday at the longer Valhalla but he’s made it clear that he’s feeling good about his game right now, hinting there may be even better results on the horizon. 

Wallace’s smooth swing is producing some very solid results right now and he’s currently 11th in proximity from 175-200 yards which should bode well for his chances on this shorter setup. To me, he’s the kind of player who can rise to the occasion in these kinds of weaker fields, and I’m happy to add an each-way bet on him this week at very nice odds. 

David Lipsky (+35000; FanDuel)

• Top 20 (+900; FanDuel)

While he’s not been the most consistent player on the PGA TOUR, Lipsky has shown us that when he’s on the right setup and in a field devoid of most of the top players, he can rise to the challenge.

He finished T4 at the Sony Open in 2023, another shorter Par 70, and posted three top 10 finishes on the PGA back in 2022, all at weaker field events (Mexico x2 and Punta Cana). While we’re not in the tropics this week, we are swimming in international waters, and for the former European Tour regular he’s tended to thrive when playing outside the mainland USA.

Lipsky also posted his first top 10 of the season last week at Colonial, where he gained an eye-popping 10.1 strokes on approach at another smaller parkland course in Colonial. I don’t want to oversell this or imply those kinds of numbers are likely to happen again, but he has struck the ball well with his irons two weeks in a row and his approach play is the strength of his game.

Further, it’s hard to see him losing nearly two strokes Around the Greens AND Putting again this week (like he did at Colonial), so a return to the norm with the scoring clubs is another reason to be bullish for his prospects at Hamilton. 

Lipsky opened at +50000 and was +1200 in the top 20 market at some books to begin the week but he’s dropped to +35000 and +900. Even at these prices, I’d have no issues taking a flyer on him in this field. He’s clearer turned a corner with his ball-striking and sets up perfectly for this week’s easier test. 

RBC Canadian Open Matchup and First Round Leader bet

Adam Svensson Each-Way 1/4 Top Five (+7000; bet365) 

Svensson is starting to play some pretty solid golf. He’s fifth in approach stats over the last 24 rounds of play and is finding fairways about as consistently as anyone on TOUR. That’s great news considering the shorter technical setup we have on tap for this week. Moreover, he finally flipped positive with his putter last week at Colonial gaining 1.2 strokes with the flatstick. If that kind of confidence continues on the greens I do not doubt that we’ll see some big rounds from Svensson soon. 

While I do like him as a top 40 prospect this week I also think he’s a terrific upside candidate in the FRL markets. He’s off extremely early on Thursday, comes with solid +7000 odds, and has a non-marquee group, which should keep the pressure off him in Round 1. 

Ben Martin Each-Way 1/4 Top Five (+15000; bet365) 

Martin is another type of accuracy-driven player who has been striking it well of late. He’s gained over 2.0 strokes on approach in four of his last five starts and ranks 13th in SG: Approach stats over the last 24 rounds. I don’t necessarily trust the rest of Martin’s game enough to bet him outright but he’s certainly a solid single-round target, especially for Thursday’s Round 1 where he goes off in the fifth-earliest group. 

Martin’s also been a fast starter for much of his career and despite up and down results still ranks 50th in first-round scoring for 2024. At these kinds of odds and with an advantageous tee time, he makes sense as a first-round bomb for Round 1.