In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
 

We’ve officially made it to the elite eight. While it might not exactly be the eight best teams in the NFL … it’s pretty darn close. Six of these squads punched their ticket with wins on Super Wild Card Weekend, while the Chiefs and Lions will rejoin the mix following much-deserved bye weeks.

The NFL Divisional Round will be split in half, with two games on Saturday and two on Sunday. Saturday’s contests get underway with the Texans at the Chiefs at 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Commanders at the Lions at 8 p.m. ET. The Rams and Eagles will officially kick things off on Sunday, with the marquee matchup between the Ravens and Bills bringing the action to a close.

While Saturday’s contests might not be the headliners—both No. 1 seeds are considerable favorites—there’s still plenty of intrigue to make things interesting.

For the Chiefs, the biggest question is can they flip the switch in the playoffs for the second straight year? It feels weird to say that about a team that went 15-1 with their starters this season, but they were ultimately pretty underwhelming. They had the point differential of a 10.2-win team, and they had a perfect 11-0 record in one-score games. Ultimately, the formula was simply to keep games close and hope that Patrick Mahomes could steal a victory at the end.

That formula was good enough to win a bunch of games, but it wasn’t particularly fruitful for bettors. They struggled to cover the spread as favorites all year, so it will be interesting to see if they can do so in the playoffs.

Saturday’s nightcap is expected to feature points, points, and more points. The total currently sits at 55.5 across the industry, which is tied for the second-highest total of the season. The only other contests with totals this high also featured the Lions: their instant classic vs. the Bills and their final game of the regular season vs. the Vikings. The over went 1-1 in those contests, but the Lions held up their end of the equation in both. They scored 31 points against the Vikings and 42 against the Bills, so they’re likely to do so again vs. the Commanders. The bigger question is: Can Washington do enough to keep up?

Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Saturday’s slate.

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND BEST BETS

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What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Watercooler: Another Saquon smash spot?
  • NFL Saturday: Points galore in Detroit.
  • Blue Chip Props: Big game coming for Hollywood Brown?

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

🏆 Don’t forget about the College Football Championship! Thor’s best bets for Monday night.

📈 Another Saquon Smash? An Amari Cooper Breakout? Drumheller, Ulrich, and cooterdoodle break down their favorite props for the Divisional Round.

⬆️ AJB going over is an easy read.

👻 Don’t be scared to follow cooterdoodle’s betting advice.

🔮 The 2025 NFL Draft is right around the corner. Thor gazes into his crystal ball to see who the top picks are going to be.

NFL Saturday Best Bets

by Matt LaMarca

Texans at Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -8.5

Total: O/U 42.5

The Texans upsetting the Chargers was a surprise to many, but they advance to face the Chiefs in Kansas City in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs have been a frustrating team all season. Their underlying metrics leave a lot to be desired, yet they were 15-1 with Patrick Mahomes in the lineup this season. They kept a ton of games close, only to have the best player on planet Earth pull things out in the end.

It’s an eerily similar formula to what we saw from the Chiefs last season. They were uninspiring for much of the regular season only to flip the switch in the playoffs. They got past the Dolphins, Bills, Ravens, and 49ers en route to their third title in five years, with each of their final three contests coming away from Arrowhead Stadium. They’ll at least have the benefit of home-field advantage this year, as they look for their third straight championship.

The Chiefs have historically been a team that struggles to cover big spreads during the regular season. They were just 3-7-1 ATS when favored by more than a field goal this year, and they’re 24-37-2 ATS in that split since the start of 2020-21.

However, Mahomes hasn’t really had the same issues during the playoffs. He’s 13-5 ATS for his career in the postseason, including 9-5 as a favorite.

The Chiefs will also have the rest advantage in this contest, which is lethal with Andy Reid as their coach. He’s historically been one of the best in the business with additional time to prepare, going 20-12 ATS with 13 or 14 days between contests.

Maybe this is the year where the Chiefs are unable to turn things on in the playoffs, but I’m going to need to see it to believe it.

Bet: Chiefs -8.5 (-105; DraftKings)

Commanders at Lions

Spread: Lions -9.5

Total: O/U 55.5

It was a great week for some of my favorite postseason trends in Round 1. The first-time QBs went just 1-2 against the spread, with Jayden Daniels providing the lone cover. Not only that, he picked up an outright win over the Buccaneers, setting up a date with the Lions in the Divisional Round.

The stadium over/under trend also paid out handsomely. All four outdoor playoff contests went under, while the indoor matchup between the Texans and Chargers went over. The only game that didn’t follow suit was Vikings-Rams, and that game was essentially a neutral-site contest.

With the Lions back on the board in the Divisional Round, we’ll pick up another indoor location at Ford Field. The total on this game sits at a massive 55.5 points, but I’m still going to grab the over in this spot. Indoor postseason overs are now 36-18 since 2003, and I like the Lions and Commanders to add to that total on Saturday night.

The Lions have been one of the best offensive teams in football all season. They’re No. 1 in the league in points per game, No. 2 in yards, and No. 3 in EPA per play. They should have no issues carving through a Commanders’ defense that has been exploitable for most of the year.

On the other side, the Commanders should be able to hold serve. Jayden Daniels was extremely impressive in his postseason debut, and when he’s been at full strength this season the Commanders’ offense has been basically unstoppable. The Lions’ defense has also been decimated by injuries down the stretch, and they surrendered at least 31 points in three of their final five games. Their Week 18 performance against the Vikings also looks a lot less impressive in retrospect following Minnesota's performance against the Rams on Monday night.

Ultimately, Washington was 11-6 to the over during the regular season, while Detroit was 9-8. Even though the Commanders failed to go over in their first playoff outing, I’m expecting plenty of points in this matchup.

Bet: Over 55.5 (-108; FanDuel)

WHAT ABOUT SUNDAY?

Blue Chip Props: What The Heck Is A Salmagundi??

by Matt LaMarca

Recently, our very own cooterdoodle has taken to the betting streets. If you haven’t seen her “Scared Money” series, you absolutely need to check it out. I only 50% comprehend the references—what the heck is a Salmagundi?—but it’s 100% entertaining. In other words, it’s peak cooterdoodle.

That said, her writing has made me realize that I am very much “scared money.” And you know what, that’s fine! Maybe I’ll never hit a bajillion-to-1 parlay, but I’m very content to just try to grind out some “safer” investments. Ultimately, cooterdoodle can stick with the penny stocks; I’m going to park my money in the Fortune 500.

Without further ado, it’s time for Saturday’s Blue Chip Props.

Hollywood Brown Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110; BetMGM)

The first game of the week features quite possibly my favorite prop of the week. Brown has been awesome in his first two games with the Chiefs this season. His numbers may not jump off the page, but he’s been the clear alpha in the team’s passing attack whenever he’s been on the field. Brown has been targeted on a whopping 44% of his routes run across two contests, and he’s finished with at least 45 receiving yards in both games.

The only reason this number is so low is because Brown has played limited snaps. He had just a 33% route participation in his first outing, but that increased to 49% in his second. With two weeks off to get further integrated into the team’s passing attack, how much higher can his route participation go? Even if he doesn’t necessarily cut into the snaps for Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins, there are still plenty of additional opportunities up for grabs. JuJu Smith-Schuster ran a route on 54% of the team’s dropbacks in Week 17, while Justin Watson was at 26%.

Ultimately, Brown has proven that he can hit the over on 41.5 receiving yards as a part-time player. If he gets a full-time role vs. the Texans? His upside is immense. This could be our only opportunity to buy Brown at a discount if he does play more than expected.

David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown (-155; DraftKings)

When it comes to “Blue Chip” props, Montgomery to score a touchdown is the poster child. He’s not going to score every week, but he routinely returns value at a pretty reasonable price tag.

Montgomery has found the end zone at least once in nine of his first 12 games this season, and one of the exceptions was a game he left early due to injury. He also found the paint in 13 of 17 games last season (including playoffs), bringing his total to 22 for 29 as a member of the Lions. That’s a conversion rate of 75.8%, which translates to an implied probability of greater than -300. Maybe he doesn’t deserve to be priced quite that high in his first game back, but -155 is a pretty considerable discount.

Plenty of players should be able to find paydirt in this contest. The total is up to a massive 55.5 points, which is one of the highest marks of the entire season. The Commanders’ defense has been exploitable for most of the year, and only the Bills have averaged more rushing touchdowns per game than the Lions.

PLAYER PROPS FOR NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND

Sharp Hunter: Chiefs to Chop the Texans?

By Mike Mutnansky

There are just seven games left in the 2024-2025 NFL season. 

Cherish them. 

Embrace them. 

Hold them tight. 

OK, that’s probably over the top. But if you love the NFL like we do at Sharp Hunter, you know what I mean. 

At Sharp Hunter, we’re tracking all the games and all the bets from sharp bettors everywhere. 

We have two games on Saturday and our sharps have some ideas. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are going for a Super Bowl Trifecta and their path starts Saturday afternoon at home against the Texans. The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites in a game that has a consensus total of 41.5. 

The sharps at Sharp Hunter like the Chiefs here—and we’re showing a One-Bag Sharp Score on the home favorite. 

I’m betting with our sharps in this one. 

The Texans were not lucky last week, but they did get some INT and special teams luck in a win over the Chargers. 

Down 10-0, C.J. Stroud made a wild play on a ball that was snapped over his head, and all of a sudden the Texans were back in it.

Now they must go to Kansas City to face a rested and healthy Chiefs team. The Texans’ OL is not good, even if they get G Shaq Mason back for this one. Stroud will have to make quick adjustments in a loud and cold environment—temps will be in the low 20s for this game. Stroud is 0-2 SU/ATS in games colder than 35 degrees.

This game was 27-19 Chiefs a month ago and Kansas City is healthier now. The Texans are down to John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson as their receivers behind Nico Collins.

The Chiefs have scored 27, 27, and 42 points in these home NFL Divisional Round games over the last three years. I see no reason they don’t get to 28+ here and I think the Texans—without the INT luck from a week ago—will struggle to get to 14.

Patrick Mahomes has a healthy team around him and is staring at a chance to make history. I’m betting Kansas City in this spot.

The sharps at Sharp Hunter agree—they’re betting the home favorite to kick off Divisional Round Weekend.

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND WEEKEND NFL GAME MODELS