68 teams entered the tournament and now only eight remain.
Saturday’s Elite Eight matchups will feature plenty of offense as three of the four teams rank top-5 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, providing us with some high-flying action. Will that correlate to overs cashing in both games?
I detail how to wager on both of these games with an emphasis on live betting as scoring variance will be more timely than ever.
Also, be sure to check out Matthew Freedman’s player prop projections and player prop bets over in the Fantasy Life discord in the Free Picks channel.
Best Bets for the Elite Eight Games on Saturday, March 30th
(6) Clemson vs. (4) Alabama (Wait on Live Full Game Over)
Clemson put on a dominant display against the Arizona Wildcats, holding their offense in check and forcing them into ill-advised shots while trying to claw out of a deficit.
As for the Tide, they provided us with one of the more entertaining games of the tournament in a shootout against North Carolina, ambushing the Heels with their perimeter shooting to get the narrow win.
Clemson’s performance was especially intriguing as they had no issue picking apart the Wildcats defense. Arizona entered the contest ranked 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per Kenpom, yet had no answer for Clemson’s spread-out attack.
The Tigers now face a far weaker defense against the Tide, a unit that allows open looks at the rim and high-quality shots from the perimeter at an alarmingly bad rate. It's an ironic level of play for a team whose offense solely relies on their ability to get to the rim and create space for their perimeter shooting.
Like Armando Bacot was for the Tar Heels' early game success, the Tigers' PJ Hall will be a major factor for Clemson’s offense.
Hall is a floor-stretching center who leads the team in scoring by averaging 18.4 points per game while shooting 49% from the field and 31.7% from the perimeter.
His presence puts added pressure on the Tides' defense as Hall can take his defender off the dribble as well as spot up on the block. He also has a knack for finding the gaps in coverage when off the ball and using the space to generate a high-quality look at the rim.
Worse yet for the Tide, they can not afford to sag help-side defenders against Clemson like they could against North Carolina as everyone on the floor for Clemson can shoot. Alabama opted into that idea in their last game out with Seth Trimble and Elliot Cadeau being inefficient shooters, yet will now have to revert to more face-up coverage.
As for the Tide, their offensive identity will remain fairly intact. Get out and run, look for gaps in coverage in the middle of a fast break, and either shoot a three or drive to the rim. The Tar Heels were one of the better units in defending in transition and the Tide still managed to overwhelm them over the full course of the game.
They now face a Clemson defense that also excels at defending in transition, yet may be uncomfortable at a fast pace of play as they rank 257th in Tempo. The fastest upper-tier team the Tigers would face in ACC play would be North Carolina, clocking in at 42nd in Tempo as opposed to the Crimson Tide’s rank of 10th fastest.
Luckily for the Tigers, they can minimize the number of fast break opportunities with their slow pace of play and ability to secure the ball. Clemson ranks 45th in Turnovers Per Game, only coughing up the ball on average 10.1 times per game.
When in half-court sets, Clemson’s 2-3 zone will help them stretch out their coverage to get a hand in the shooter's face. That potentially lessens the quality of the shot on Alabama’s end, as well as daring them to find success across the middle which directly goes against their offensive identity.
The issue for Clemson is that their zone has not equated to high-level success as the Tigers still allowed opposing offenses to shoot 32.6% from three before tournament play. That number has since crashed down to an unrealistic 18.7% in their past three contests, now facing an offensive identity that can shoot their way out of a slump for all forty minutes of the game.
Instead of betting on the pregame line, I will wait to see how Clemson’s transition defense looks and if Alabama can still generate high-quality looks in half-court sets. If Alabama can still create space against the zone and establish their offensive identity, as well as Clemson continues to abuse the Tide’s porous defense, then I will look to take a live over during a scoring lull.
(3) Illinois vs. (1) UConn (Wait on Live UConn Spread)
Show up, dismantle, repeat.
That has been UConn’s motto since their run in last year's tournament and has shown no signs of slowing down in this one.
San Diego State did their best to turn them into a jump shooting team, yet could not match the firepower over the full course of forty minutes before eventually folding over.
UConn now brings in their high-powered offense to battle it out against an Illinois defense that has regressed since the halfway point of the season. Once fitting the mold as a potential National Champion per Kenpom, Illinois eventually fell out of the metrics after their defense crashed down to 84th in AdjD.
A big reason for their defensive struggles has been their inability to defend the perimeter, ranking 229th in Opposing Three Point Completion Percentage with opposing teams shooting 34.5% from deep.
That spells potential doom against a UConn offense that thrives at creating high-quality looks. UConn enters the contest ranked seventh in Effective Field Goal Percentage and is bound to positively regress towards the mean as their jump shooting has been slightly below their average since the start of tournament play.
Not all is merry for UConn in this matchup though as Illinois can match some of their strengths to bring them back down to reality. Illinois is a phenomenal rebounding team, mirroring their rebound rate to help limit the number of second-chance opportunities the Huskies get. That also limits the number of total scoring opportunities, a critical factor in giving the Illini a better chance of keeping it close.
This is also the best offense that UConn has faced all season and worth waiting to see how they respond against a game-changing talent in Terrence Shannon Jr. He possesses an ability to take any defender off the dribble and will put pressure on Donovan Clingan as he tries to avoid foul trouble while trying to stop him at the rim.
UConn’s spread is a tad too high for my liking in a game that may force them into a lesser number of offensive possessions, yet I still believe that they have enough firepower to steadily build a lead against a poor Illinois defense. The foul status of Clingan is also key early on, especially if Illinois continues attacking the rim at a heavy rate.
Should UConn start slow while still generating high-quality looks against a poor Illini defense, then I will look to play them live at -6 or better. This allows me to get UConn at a key basketball number, as well as the ability to monitor Clingan’s foul status as he plays a major part in UConn’s overall success.
