The final slate of the Elite Eight kicks off on Easter Sunday as two more teams look to punch their ticket to the Final Four.
North Carolina State continues to capture the hearts of the nation but faces a tough test against their ACC foe Duke Blue Devils.
In the other game, chalk dominated the Midwest region as Tennessee and Purdue are set to face off to see which coach can get one step closer to getting the monkey off their back after recent underwhelming tournament runs.
Also, be sure to check out Matthew Freedman’s college basketball player projections and best bets over in the Fantasy Life discord in the free picks channel. Freedman has once again been on a tear throughout this tournament and will look to carry his momentum into Sunday’s slate.
Best Bets for the Elite Eight Games on Sunday, March 31st
(2) Tennessee (+3.5) vs. (1) Purdue (-110, ESPN)
No matter how cold Tennessee gets, or how hot their opponent gets, the Volunteers just continue to win when it matters most. That was apparent in their last game against Creighton, having to survive a barrage of threes as the Blue Jays finished the contest shooting 47.8% from deep and 44.8% from the field.
Even amidst an impressive shooting performance, Tennessee held strong and pulled out a comfortable win to the tune of 82-75. They now face a Purdue squad that mirrors the same identity as Creighton, abusing the low post with a stud big man and stretching out the defense with above-average three-point shooting.
The difference this time around is that the big man they have to defend is a far tougher task with Zach Edey patrolling the interior. Edey is expected to receive the Wooden Award for the second year in a row after finishing the season averaging 24.6 points and 12.1 rebounds per game.
Luckily for the Volunteers, their defense is equipped to limit the quality of look that Purdue excels at creating. Tennessee ranks fifth in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage, averaging a lowly 45.3%. More impressive yet, that mark has decreased to just 43.5% since the start of tournament play.
Their ability to stretch their defense out and smother opposing looks has played a major part in their elite defensive marks, ranking third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) per Kenpom. They have the bigs to consistently platoon against Edey, as well as hounding Purdue’s guards with a physical man-up style of play.
The latter is especially important to beat Purdue, rattling their young guards into making mistakes with their physicality. That was a common theme last year as they struggled with turnovers, although it is worth noting that they have improved in that regard this year. While improved, they are still prone to havoc-style defenses as they rank 128th in Turnover Rate averaging 11.3 per game.
The issue with their havoc style of play is that it hurt them in their first matchup against Purdue, allowing the Boilermakers to shoot 48 free throws in a loss. 48 free throws is an unrealistic amount in a one-game sample size, meaning that it is bound to regress toward the mean. That makes their initial loss a lot closer than it appeared, giving some comfort towards their number.
On the other end of the court, Tennessee’s game plan should mirror that of their last game as they face another defense that deploys drop coverage. That bodes well for Tennessee as their offense is equipped to handle it as noted in their Sweet Sixteen breakdown, fielding guards who can thrive in the midrange or kick it out to a lethal off-ball scorer in Dalton Knecht.
Vols big man Jonas Aidoo will need to shake off his slump to give them a better chance at beating the coverage as he finished his last contest shooting an abysmal 2-8 from the floor. Purdue is a far better perimeter defending team than Creighton, making it critical that Aidoo commands defensive attention from a nearby guard with Edey anchored at the rim to free up more space for Tennessee’s shooters.
Should Aidoo bounce back, and their guards continue to punish a lagging defender, then Tennessee should have no issue with keeping within scoring pace. I played Tennessee’s spread on the open of +3.5 and would play them down to +3 in what should be a thrilling Elite Eight contest.
(11) North Carolina State vs. (4) Duke (Team Total Over 74.5) (-110, BetRivers)
While the previously mentioned game is expected to be tight per oddsmakers, Duke is poised to comfortably pull out the win in this one after enduring a slugfest against the Houston Cougars. They may have gotten lucky with the unfortunate injury to Jamal Shead, but Duke did what they needed to do to advance against a deep Houston team.
They now face North Carolina State who has been in the midst of a magical run as an 11 seed. Big man DJ Burns Jr. has not only captivated the nation with his loveable personality, but he has backed up his play as a soft-foot big man with elite vision and scoring abilities.
Speaking of luck, the Wolfpack have also been running hot on the lucky side as their defense has been a tale of two parts. On paper, they have held opposing offenses to just 23.7% from the perimeter since the start of tournament play. The lingering issue is that they still give up high-quality looks at an alarming rate and now face one of the more lethal perimeter shooting teams in the nation.
The unfortunate reality for the Wolfpack is that regression is looming large and the Duke Blue Devils are the perfect offense to capitalize on it. Kyle Filipowski demands defensive attention as an elite-scoring big man and is more than capable of taking Burns off the dribble.
With Filipowski wreaking havoc in the interior, North Carolina State will be forced to throw extra bodies in help side coverage to try and slow him down. When doubling, that opens up gaps in NC State’s coverage for higher quality looks for Duke’s elite three-point shooters.
That spells potential doom for the Wolfpack as Duke as a whole shoots an incredible 38% from the perimeter, good for 13th best in the nation. That mark has also only improved since the start of the tournament, ticking up to 41.3% in their last three contests.
Scoring should come at a consistent rate for the Blue Devils with their elite floor-stretching offense, making their team total over worth a wager. I would also recommend playing Duke at -6 or better, but they have since climbed up to -7 as of writing. Should they start slow but still get high-quality looks, then look to play them on the live line as well.
