The following analysis is from the July 15th edition of the Betting Life Newsletter:
The Home Run Derby is the greatest All-Star festivity in all of sports. I’m a big defender of NBA All-Star Saturday, but that event has lost a lot of its luster. Most NBA fans don’t know anyone in the dunk contest, and the “skills competition” is a complete waste of time.
I’m not even sure what the NFL does during their All-Star weekend: I stopped watching once they introduced tug of war and dodgeball.
But the Derby? That’s the good stuff. Even in a weaker field than usual, we’ll still see some of the best power hitters and rising young stars looking to hit the ball as far as humanly possible. As Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine once said – chicks (and sports bettors) dig the long ball.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know for the Home Run Derby.
What is in today’s newsletter?
- Best bets for the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby.
- An early bet to get you started for the final PGA Major of the season.
- NBA win totals for the 2024-25 season have been released.
Best Bets For the Home Run Derby
by Matt LaMarca
Winner: Pete Alonso (+340; DraftKings)
I’m eating the chalk here. Alonso has won this event twice, so he’ll be looking to make a little history. With another victory, he’d join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only player to win the event three separate times.
Alonso isn’t having a great season, but his HR power is prodigious. He’s finished with at least 37 homers in each full professional season, and he’s had at least 40 in all but one. When he squares up the baseball, very few generate as much power. He’s ranked in the top 3% in max exit velocity in each year of his career, and he’s been in the top percentile on three separate occasions.
That said, what sets Alonso apart from his competition is his pitcher.
Dave Jauss has a real job, but his true calling is to throw batting practice in Home Run Derbies. Look at this man’s heat map from the 2021 Derby
Even though Jauss is no longer in the Mets’ organization, he will still throw to Alonso in 2024. That’s been a huge advantage in the past, and it’ll be even larger this year.
The HR Derby will feature a new rule this season, capping each batter at a maximum of 40 pitches in the first two rounds. No longer will guys just be able to hack for a full three minutes; if you run out of pitches before the end of the clock, your round is officially over.
That makes getting quality pitches more important than ever. I trust Jauss to do that more than any other Derby pitcher. They’ve also eliminated the first-round head-to-head matchups, so Alonso just has to finish in the top half of the field to advance. That removes some of the additional variance for the favorites.
Under 270.5 Homers (-113; FanDuel)
Judging from previous years, this number is too low. There were 291 homers hit in 2022 and 309 homers in 2021, and the competitors combined for a ridiculous 341 homers last year. That was easily a new record.
However, the new format should result in fewer homers overall. The competitors are going to get fewer swings in the first two rounds, and they’re going to get far fewer swings in the finals. The days of seeing guys go for 25+ homers in a round – which happened six times last year – are likely in the past.
Betting the under on a Derby prop might be the least fun bet ever, but I firmly believe it’s the correct side. It might be more fun to root for homers, but I’d rather try to win some cash.
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Open Championship Player to Target
by Geoff Ulrich
Tyrrell Hatton Each Way 1/5 Top 8 (+2800; bet365)
Hatton is not a player I have bet on much over the years. In fact, if I’m being honest, I almost always go out of my way to avoid him in majors. He’s temperamental, extremely hard on himself and often finds some reason (on or off the course) to take his foot off the gas and bleed his way out of contention at the big events.
However, there is little doubt that the Englishman has found his groove over on LIV. He’s managed four top-five finishes (and one win) over his last six starts on the alternate Tour and is also coming off a solid weekend at the extremely tough Valderrama, host of LIV Andalucia, where he shot 68-69 to close in solo 3rd.
His major results this season have also been sneaky good. The T9 he posted at Augusta in April was a personal best, and the fact he was finally able to achieve a small triumph at a course that has given him nightmares in the past, is a potential sign that he’s finally developed the mettle needed to achieve some greatness on Sunday in a major.
From a tee-to-green perspective, Hatton was right up with the leaders at the US Open, where he gained 3.4 strokes Off the Tee and 3.6 strokes Around the Green. The slower fescue at the Open venues has always appealed more to him and it’s no shock that his best results in major championships have come in the British Isles where he’s landed four top-20 finishes over his last seven Open starts.
At his best, Hatton is a full-fleshed striper of the golf ball, who managed a T5 at Troon during the 2016 Open. While he never threatened the lead in ‘16, he shot four rounds of par or better that year, a result that will breed confidence this week on a course that is set to play 150-200 yards longer than it did eight years ago.
I can’t foresee Hatton’s opening odds dipping much this week, just given his course history and recent form, so he’s also a player I’m happy to jump on early. Taking him as an each-way at +2800, with a top 8 place, seems reasonable and gives us a couple of different ways to profit off a player who enters this year’s Open with as much confidence as he’s ever had heading into a major.
The latest betting nuggets, silliness, and gossip from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🏀 DraftKings has released 27 of the 30 NBA team win totals for 2024. What stands out most?
🚀 With the MLB Home Run Derby tonight…let’s look back to an all-time great performance.
⚽ Argentina won a dramatic Copa America Final. Even Messi’s swollen ankle couldn’t stop them from paying off as favorites.
👀 Matthew Freedman dove into four bets he’s making on the 2024 NFL rookie class. Stat leaders and award winners…
🤨 A questionable late drop allowed Robert MacIntyre to win the Scottish Open. Seriously, how is this a rule?
