Best Bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic 2024

The Rocket Mortgage Classic first started back in 2019, and this season will mark the sixth time it has been featured as a stop on the PGA TOUR. It’s always been situated as a summertime event meant to fill the gaping hole between the US Open and Open Championship, one that is generally devoid of big events. 

The tournament will once again be played at Detroit Golf Club, a shorter, Donald Ross-designed par 72 that is set to undergo some extensive renovations after this year’s event. 

Here is a quick rundown of the past five winners of the Rocket Mortgage Classic and how each event played out.

2019 – Nate Lashley (+25000 or bigger) -25

• Came in with very few solid results on the season but did post a T28 at the US Open two weeks prior; he gained over 5.0 strokes on approach that week
• Gained nearly all his strokes putting (+9.3) and on approach (+5.4)
• Led wire-to-wire

2020 – Bryson DeChambeau (+800) -23

• Was top five after every single round
• Was coming off a bout of very good form that included four top 10s in a row
• Beat Matthew Wolff that season who finished T2. The two would later go head to head at the US Open months later

2021 – Cameron Davis (+15000) -18

• Came in off a missed cut and had lost over 4.0 strokes on approach in his previous start
• Trailed the entire tournament but did enter Round 4 just one stroke back; won in a playoff over shorter hitter Troy Merritt 
• The winning score was just -18 this season, the worst winning score for this event since its inception 

2022 – Tony Finau (+1200) -26

• Won by five strokes at 26-under par and was never more than 1 stroke back after any round; went head to head with Taylor Pendrith, another big hitter, for the first three rounds
• The event was played in late July that season, it was Finau’s second win in a row after taking down the 3M Open the week prior
• Gained over 5.0 strokes OTT and on APP; Gained over 4.0 strokes PUTT

2023 – Rickie Fowler (+1600) -24

• Won in a playoff over Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin at 24-under par
• Gained over 7.0 strokes on approach
• Started solid and was one ahead going into the final round
• Was coming off multiple top 10 finishes over last month, including T5 at US Open

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in the early week Rocket Mortgage course preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with Detroit Golf Club yet, I recommend you do so as it’s starting to lend itself to being a great place for players who are strong off the tee, and who like a softer setup.  

Jun 23, 2024; Cromwell, Connecticut, USA; Tom Kim hits the ball in the fairway of the eighteenth hole during the playoff round of the Travelers Championship golf tournament at TPC River Highlands. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Today, though, I’m honing in on specific bets and creating a weekly betting card, which I’ll summarize at the bottom of the article. Before we get to the good stuff, here are a few more notes about the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic to keep in mind.

• It’s a 150+ man field with the cut line taking place after Friday. The top 65 players and ties will make the weekend. 
• There are only 10 of the world’s top 50 players (from the OWGR) in attendance this week.
• Tom Kim leads the field in betting odds (+1200, DraftKings). This comes a week after he finished second in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler.
• Cameron Young, who shot a 59 last week in Round 3, is second in odds at +1600. Overall, the two favorites have bigger odds than the market leaders did last week, a good indication of how wide open this event is. 
• The weather will likely be somewhat of a non-issue over the first two days, with low winds and moderate temperatures expected. However, there is wind and rain in the forecast on Saturday, which could make scoring more difficult.
• Early week rain (T and W) may also work to soften up the course. Unless Saturday turns into a real hurricane, the winner is likely going to have to reach 22-under par or better once again.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Odds

Tom Kim pushed towards the front of the market this week after his surge at the Travelers. Joining him under +2000 in odds is Cameron Young, whose third-round 59 got people’s attention. Kim was +4000 last week and Young was +7000 or bigger, so their outright numbers have dropped considerably—although the field is much weaker in Detroit. 

Min Woo Lee is third in odds and making his first start since the US Open, while both Keith Mitchell and Maverick McNealy have made the top 10 in outright odds despite not playing in either of the last two events. 

2024 US Open Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings)

Best Bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic 2024

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play, which I’ll track as we go through the plays. 

While many are pure outright plays for me, I do like playing many of these names in the placing department as well, and included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Maverick McNealy Outright (+3000; bet365)

• Top 10 (+330; bet365) 
• 0.6 units outright; 0.30 units top 10

This strikes me as as good a spot as any for Maverick McNealy to grab his first win. The American began working his way back from an injury layoff in late fall of last year and by all accounts, the comeback has been a success. Since February, McNealy has posted three top 10s and has now made the cut in 12 straight PGA starts. He’s also shown better upside against elite fields this season, posting career-best finishes at the PLAYERS (T9) and PGA Championship (T23), an event where he was inside the top 10 for portions. 

Maverick McNealy tees off hole 18 during the fourth and final round of The Players Championship PGA golf tournament Sunday, March 17, 2024 at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. Scottie Scheffler won at 20 under par and is the first defending champion in the 50 year history of the event. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

His most recent start is also cause for optimism: a T7 in Canada where he gained over 2.0 strokes on approach and over 4.0 strokes putting. McNealy hasn’t played in a couple of weeks as he failed to qualify for the last two events, but his solid play at the PGA Championship and Top 10 finish in Canada means his lead-in compares well with past winners like Rickie Fowler, Bryson DeChambeau, and even Nate Lashley—who used a T28 at the US Open as a jumping-off point for success in Detroit. 

A West Coast native who grew up playing poa greens, McNealy also flashed upside at Detroit GC, posting a T8 at this venue in 2020—a start where he gained 6.5 strokes putting for the week. He’s also gone well at comparable venues like Silverado (T2 Fortinet Open 2021) and TPC Twin Lakes (T16 3M Open 2021) and has seen eight of his 13 career top 10s come on courses using poa greens, or some kind of bentgrass/poa combo. 

Fifteenth in strokes gained off the tee and 3rd in strokes gained putting (last 50 rounds), McNealy fits the prototype of past winners at Detroit Golf Club who have used raw power and a solid putter to set themselves up for big finishes. With the 28-year-old available at 2x to 2.5x the market leaders, he’s a player I like chasing in the outright markets with the idea of splitting up some of the exposure on a top 10 bet as well.  

Keith Mitchell Each-Way 1/4 Top 5 (+4000; bet365)

• 0.45 units outright; 0.45 units top 5

Mitchell is another player who comes in primed to take advantage of this beneficial setup. The American gained 7.7 strokes tee to green in his last start in Canada and ranks first in strokes gained OTT stats and second in opportunities gained over the last 50 rounds. He’s been held back by his putter for the most part in 2024, but his last start in Canada also saw him gain over 1.4 strokes on the greens for the week, on a course that featured similar-styled bentgrass/poa greens to the ones we’ll see in Detroit. 

Mitchell pops off the page in almost every key stat, so if his confidence with the putter from Canada sticks, he’s the kind of player who could easily reach 20-under par or better, given his advantage off the tee. He doesn’t have much in terms of course history to offer, with a missed cut at Detroit GC being his only start at this event to date. However, a T5 at another driver-heavy course in TPC Twin Lakes in 2023, and a T2 at Corales way back in 2018, shows the sort of upside he possesses on venues with lots of room off the tee. 

Mitchell doesn’t challenge as much as we all would like him to, but given the recent progression he’s shown, he’s not someone I'd want to leave out of the betting plans at his current price. If he can find some range with his putter, this SHOULD be the week where he delivers his first big result of 2024. 

Nicolai Hojgaard Each-Way 1/5 Top 8 (+5000; bet365)

• 0.4 units outright; 0.4 units top 8 

I mentioned Hojgaard as my early week target in the Course Preview from Monday. Here’s some of what I wrote: 

“Relatively speaking, this is the kind of event where you want to take a shot or two with some underperforming talent lurking further back in the odds and Hojgaard seems like he’s more than a solid fit for the course. Like past top finishers Taylor Pendrith and Matthew Wolff, he’s big off the tee and finished T21 here last season, gaining strokes everywhere but on the greens. He also grabbed a T14 last season at Sedgefield CC, another Donald Ross-designed venue.

… Hojgaard is still a strong 22nd in the model and also has odds above +5000. He comes in showing some form, having now gained over 2.0 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts. Coming now to an easier venue, against a weaker field, his odds (compared to the rest of the field) make this a good time to chase his upside.”

Jun 12, 2024; Pinehurst, North Carolina, USA; Nicolai Hojgaard chips up onto the sixth green during a practice round for the U.S. Open golf tournament at Pinehurst No. 2. Mandatory Credit: Katie Goodale-USA TODAY Sports

Hojgaard has finished second already on a couple of other par 72s (Torrey Pines in 2024, and Corales in 2023), and if he does manage to get his putter rolling this week, a top-five finish is well within reach. His odds have improved since Monday, so I’m going to play him as an each-way with a top-eight placing attached, but his price makes him an easy add for anyone chasing pure upside in the outright market exclusively this week as well. 

Daniel Berger +8000 Each-Way 1/5 Top 8 (+8000; bet365)

• 0.25 units outright; 0.25 units top 8

I may be a week too early on Berger, who is set to tee things up at the John Deere Classic next week, a potentially better setup for the elite iron player. However, with his price still hovering above 80-1 I’d be remiss not to add a small bet on him this week in Detroit as well. 

Berger is coming off a US Open that saw him finish T21 and gain over 6.0 strokes on approach in the process. It’s been a tough go at times since he returned full-time in January (after a lengthy injury layoff), but he’s gained multiple strokes ball striking now in three of his last four starts and shot a 65 to open his US Open qualifying just a week before his solid finish at Pinehurst. 

The putter remains an issue (he lost 4.5 strokes on the greens at Pinehurst and 5.0 strokes the week prior in Canada), but it’s likely only a matter of time before that club returns to his previous baseline, and catches up with the rest of his game. This will be his first visit to Detroit but he’s gone well around Silverado (T17-2015, T23-2019) and Pebble Beach (1st-2021), two shorter par 72s that also feature poa greens.  

A top 20 play is certainly warranted, but I do like adding some small exposure to an outright or each-way bet as well. At some point, we should see the old Berger emerge, and when he does, these sorts of odds will look ridiculous in hindsight. 

Rocket Mortgage Classic Placement Bets and Matchups

Kelly Kraft Top 40 (+275; bet365) 

• Top 20 (+800)
• 0.6 units top 40; 0.2 units top 20

Kraft doesn’t have full status on the PGA but he’s a player who still stands out in short-term form. He’s gained 6.3 strokes and 3.0 strokes on approach in his last two starts (RBC Canadian Open and the Byron Nelson) and has been solid on the greens, ranking 25th in SG: PUTT stats over the last 50 rounds. 

This course does have a few longer holes, but overall, it’s not a place where shorter hitters have had issues competing. Last season we saw Adam Hadwin get himself into a playoff off the basis of a great week with his irons and putter, and 2019 winner Nate Lashley gained just 0.7 strokes OTT the year he won. 

Kraft hasn’t done a whole lot in his previous three starts at Detroit GC, but he’s also been in much better form this season (when he’s played) and has posted top 20 results at other comparable venues like Corales, TPC Twin Lakes, and Vidanta Vallarta, all within the past two years. 

He should have a decent shot at paying off the top 40 play (something he’s now done in 6 of his last 11 PGA starts) but sprinkling some exposure on him in the top 20 market, at +800 odds, makes sense against this weaker field. 

Underdog PGA Pick'em - Round 1 of Rocket Mortgage Classic

• 4.67x multiplier
• 0.4 units

I'm making a pretty straightforward Round 1 pick’em play for Thursday. The weather on the first day looks relatively mild and the course may also play soft due to some rain on Wednesday. That means more birdies but will also likely mean fewer bogeys on what is already a very straightforward course. 

All three of Griffin, Rai, and McNealy are playing solid golf and ranked inside the top 20 in bogey avoidance this season on the PGA, so they make for prime targets for this kind of wager. Additionally, their unders for bogeys or worse are also set at 1.5 for Round 1 on Underdog, but without any discount attached, so we are getting a solid multiplier to stack them in a correlated three-way.  

Full Card: 

• McNealy +3000 outright - 0.6 units / Top 10 +330 - 0.3 units
• Mitchell +4000 each-way - 0.45 / 0.45 units
• Hojgaard +5000 each-way - 0.4 / 0.4 units
• Berger +8000 each-way 0.25 / 0.25 units
• Kraft Top 20 +800 0.20 / Top 40 +275 0.60 units
• UD Round 1: 3-way - 0.4 units