Best Bets For The Shriners Children's Open 2024

Last week saw KF Tour graduate Matt McCarty win his first PGA event in just his third-ever PGA start. The venue last week produced plenty of low scores but no one was more consistent than McCarty who gained 6.6 strokes putting and 5.9 strokes ball-striking.

A couple of other notables from last week include Stephan Jaeger (who finished 2nd) and Harris English, who popped up in the top 10 with a T6. One of my picks from last week Kurt Kitayama (T26) posted one of the memorable stat lines of the event as he gained 10.6 strokes on approach for the week, but struggled mightily on the new greens at Black Desert, losing a disgusting 7.6 strokes putting. 

Kitayama remains one to watch as we get deeper into the fall swing but, for now, you might want to wait until he figures out his putter.

Let’s get to this week’s event down below.

Shriners Children’s Open Betting Breakdown & Course Preview

The Shriners Children’s Open is a long-standing event that has been a mainstay of the PGA’s fall swing series. The event takes place at TPC Summerlin, a Par 71 that measures between 7,200 to 7,300 yards and is located at 2,700 feet above sea level, a factor that will give players added distance this week on all of their drives and approaches.

The venue winds through desert vegetation, making it somewhat similar to last week’s venue from a visual perspective. Despite large greens, Summerlin is still more of an accuracy-driven venue as the altitude makes off-the-tee play somewhat simple, as players can often use their driver to avoid a lot of the trouble and give themselves shorter approaches. Since everyone benefits from the altitude, it means that accuracy with short irons and elite putting is needed to get an edge on the field.

Past winners at Summerlin have tended to run the gamut as a result. We saw a veteran in Rod Pampling win at this venue less than a decade ago and shorter hitters like Kevin Na, Austin Cook, and Adam Hadwin have also found plenty of success at this course, with Na winning here twice. 

Summerlin has also seen some big names triumph, as two perennial top-10 players in Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau have both booked Shriners wins at this course, to go along with current 25th player in the OWGR, Tom Kim’s two wins at this venue from the last two seasons.

All-in-all, taming this venue is about being precise and aggressive with your short irons and then lighting it up on the pure bentgrass greens, which tend to produce some monster-putting weeks from unlikely sources every season.

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Here’s how the last three Shriners Children’s Open have played out.

2021 – SungJae Im (+3000) -24

• Im gained over 5.5 strokes on approach and putting for the week, in what was his second PGA TOUR win at the time.
• Im was playing just his second fall event of the season that year but had finished T3 at the BMW in the playoffs two months prior.
• This was the third start at Summerlin for Im, who finished top-20 in his first two appearances.

2022 – Tom Kim (+2200) -24

• Kim was playing in this event for the first time in 2022 and gained over 5.0 strokes putting and on approach as well.
• He had won just three starts prior at the Wyndham, and was coming in off a 6-week break (it was his first start of the fall).

2023 – Tom Kim (+1200) -20

• Kim produced very similar stats in his second win at Summerlin, gaining 7.4 strokes on approach and 5.7 strokes putting (while losing strokes around the green).
• This win was, again, Kim’s first start of the fall swing, although he had played well in the summer, posting a T2 at the Open in late July.

Before we get to the bets, here are a couple more trends for betting purposes we’ve seen at this venue over the last 15-20 seasons.

• The last three winners of this event have all gained over 5.0 strokes on approach and over 5.0 strokes putting.
• Nine of the last 13 winners of the Shriners Children’s Open had finished T16 or better at this event — in a prior year — before their win.
• 10 of the last 14 winners had a T11 or better finish in at least one of their previous five tournaments leading up to their win at the Shriners.

2024 Shriners Children’s Open Betting Odds

2024 Shriners Children’s Open Top 10 names in betting odds:

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shriners Children’s Open Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play.

While I have a handful of outright plays I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

For odds, I’ve also used the best options available at the time of writing so you know where to look and what to look for. 

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Tom Hoge Each-Way 1/4 Top Five (+3000; bet365)

While Tom Kim certainly deserves to be the event favorite this week, I’d argue that Hoge has a solid argument to be closer in odds to Kim than he currently is. Hoge enters this week off a T7 in his only start of the fall to date (a T7 in Napa) and has played TPC Summerlin eight times in the past, posting a T7 at this venue in 2017 and a T4 back in 2022. He’s also generally one of the best short-iron players in the world when he’s in form and has now gained over 6.0 strokes on approach in two of his last three starts.

The American may only have one win on the PGA to his credit, but his game is built for these shorter courses where accurate short-iron play is a must. Hoge has grabbed a win at Pebble Beach (2022) and posted a T3 this season at TPC River Highlands; the same event where two-time Shriners winner Tom Kim finished runner-up. He’s also without much competition to worry about this week with Kim being the only top 25 player in the field.

While the 35-year-old remains a bit of a work in progress around the greens, his putter has improved immensely over the last couple of seasons and he’s found the greens at Summerlin to his liking, having gained strokes on them in four straight starts.

Hoge is a player who should find a win soon and with his odds this week pushed below +2800, I don’t have an issue adding him to the card on what is an ideal setup for someone with his skill set.

Eric Cole Outright (+3500; FanDuel) 

• Top 10: +400

Cole has been good to us in the past, having cashed numerous placings for us in this column, the last coming at the Wyndham Championship in August. He cooled off for a couple of events after that week but stormed back with a vengeance at the Sanderson Farms, posting a T16 on a week where he gained 10.0 strokes on approach.

It was a poor week for Cole’s putter to go cold, but the 36-year-old is giving himself chances. He ranks first in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds of play and seventh in strokes gained approach stats, making him a perfect fit for this shorter venue where hitting it close is a must.

While Cole struggled on the greens at Summerlin last season, he had no issues with the altitude or green structures, gaining 6.0 strokes on approach and around the greens, on his way to a T3 finish.

Eventually, everything is going to come together for Cole in one of these fall series events, and with a back-to-back winner in Kim in the field this week suppressing his odds this week, I see no reason not to add him alongside Hoge and double down in fading the market leader.

Cole has both the form and course history we want to target this week and with Kim having just come off a Presidents Cup, it’s not hard to see him getting beat out by a motivated and long-overdue player like Cole on Sunday this season. 

Longshots and Placement Bets For The Shriners Children’s Open

Bud Cauley Each-Way 1/5 Top 8 (+10000; bet365)

Cauley has been working his way back from a long injury layoff all year. He’s shown some solid patches of play and recently finished T5 at the Sanderson Farms, gaining 4.7 strokes ball-striking and 2.7 strokes on the greens.

It was an interesting development as the now-34-year-old has always had a dynamic short game and a putter that can spike almost anytime. If his short irons start firing consistently we could see him start to put up low scores more consistently at courses like TPC Summerlin which favors great wedge players.

Cauley also fits a couple of trends this week as has a recent top 10 finish to his credit from a couple of starts ago and has played well at TPC Summerlin having finished T10 at this venue back in 2018. It’s worth noting that he’s also played well at another target golf venue over in Palm Springs (TPC Stadium) having posted multiple top 5 finishes at the Amex (2017 and 2020).

With his odds still in the triple-digit range, there is not much downside to adding him as an each-way play where we’re getting better than 20-1 on a top eight to go along with the 100-1 outright number.

Sam Ryder Each-Way 1/5 Top 8 (+16000; bet365)

• Top 20 (+550; bet365)
• Top 40 (+190; bet365)

Ryder is a very streaky player, but given the uptick in ball-striking we saw from him last week, his odds are well worth laddering through a top 40 place and down.

Ryder also has a history of spiking for big weeks out of nowhere. The American has recorded 12 top-10 finishes on the PGA TOUR since 2020, and six of those results were preceded by a missed cut in his prior start. He entered last week off a four-event missed cut streak but managed to find the weekend, finally, posting a T40 in Utah, where he gained over 1.5 strokes off the tee and on approach.

While his putter has lost him strokes in five straight starts, Ryder has also tended to put well on TPC Summerlin’s bentgrass greens, gaining strokes putting in each of his last five visits to the course. Overall, he’s finished T28 at this venue in each of the last two seasons and posted a career-best T3 at this event in 2018.

With a solid history of outperforming in these fall series this course, he makes for the perfect longshot target to go overweight on, at an event that has produced plenty of surprise/longshot winners and top finishers.

David Lipsky Outright (+35000; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+2000; FanDuel)
• Top 20 (+800; FanDuel)

Lipsky’s odds often don't make sense to me in these weaker field events and they especially don’t this week after he finished T2 in the Procore Championship just three starts. The former European Tour regular is generally a great mid to short-iron player who doesn’t have much power off the tee but comes into this week ranked 11th in strokes gained approach stats over the last 24 rounds and with solid proximity stats from 200 yards and in. That alone makes him dangerous on a course like Summerlin where dialing in your irons is of the utmost importance given that the altitude tends to even the playing field for shorter hitters like Lipsky off the tee.

While he missed the cut at this event last season, Lipsky did finish T44 at Summerlin in 2022 and ended his event that year with a round of 65, so he has shown upside at this course. He’s also won at altitude before over in Europe at the Omega European Masters (held in Crans-Montana, Switzerland).

All-in-all, I don’t see much downside in adding a small wager on him at 350-1 and laddering him through the top 10 and 20 placing markets, at mammoth odds. If the “good” Lipsky shows up, the setup should propel him to a big week and cash at least one of our wagers. 

Full Betting Card - Shriners Children's Open
 

• Tom Hoge +3000 EW-5 0.55u/0.55u  
• Eric Cole +3500 0.5u | Top 10 +400 0.5u
• Bud Cauley +10000 EW-8 0.25/0.25u 
• Sam Ryder EW-8 +16000 .1u/.1u | Top 20 +550 .4u | Top 40 +190 0.8u
• David Lipsky +35000 0.1u | Top 10 +2000 0.25u | Top 20 +800 0.65u