Friday’s slate brings the rest of the Sweet 16 matchups with four more teams looking to punch their ticket to the Elite 8.
This slate features plenty of vulnerable top seeds, as well as an exciting double-digit seed in North Carolina State who has another massive offensive advantage in their matchup against Marquette.
On top of my best bets, be sure to check out Matthew Freedman’s free player prop projections and bets over in the Fantasy Life discord as he has been on fire since the start of the tournament.
Best Bets for the Sweet 16 - Friday Games
(3) Creighton vs. (2) Tennessee (-2.5) (-110, Caesars)
While Tennessee has historically been a fade target as a top seed who has routinely underwhelmed in March Madness, they now look like an actual contender who can compete for the National Championship. They survived a dog fight against Texas while their jump shots failed to fall through, now getting a Creighton squad who will gladly allow them to keep shooting.
The issue for Creighton is that Tennessee’s shot-making is bound to regress positively back toward the mean, especially when given high-quality looks in the paint due to Creighton’s use of drop coverage. Creighton gives up opposing two-point looks at the sixth-highest rate in the nation, sitting at 72.4% per TeamRankings.
When on offense, Tennessee’s guards will find themselves with plenty of room to operate in the middle. That is because of Creighton’s defensive scheme, dropping Kalkbrenner down to the rim and keeping an opposing guard slightly behind the ball handler's hip. While this scheme has worked against most opponents as the Bluejays rank 24th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per Kenpom, it may be troublesome against the Vols who are built to beat drop coverage.
That is because Tennessee’s Jonas Aidoo is a court stretching big who demands defensive attention outside of the paint. To run a drop set, Kalkbrenner has to cheat up on the pick and drop back to the rim. This leaves him vulnerable to pick and pops, pressuring him into either defending the rim against a slashing guard or kicking out to cover Aidoo.
This is where Tennessee’s elite facilitating abilities come into play, a unit that ranks 18th in Assists per game. In sets where Kalkbrenner drops down, Tennessee’s guards will have no issue kicking it out to the open gap. That forces Kalkbrenner to scramble out, leaving more room in the middle for off-ball scorers to exploit. Expect Tennessee to attack the gaps, generating a look near the rim for high-quality scoring opportunities.
With Tennessee’s offense being in a great position to exploit Creighton’s defense, it will be up to their defensive strengths to carry out the win. They have once again been elite on the defensive end, coming into the contest ranked third in AdjD.
Creighton wants to create space and shoot threes, feeding right into the Vols' defensive strengths of being able to smother opposing looks. Tennessee ranks 29th in Opposing Three Point Completion Percentage, holding opposing offenses to 30.9% from three. That mark is even more impressive in their last three games, dropping to a lowly 25% from deep.
Expect Tennessee’s defense to continue to give opposing offenses fits while they are presented with high-scoring opportunities on the other end. Take Tennessee at no higher than -3.5 in what may be a redemption year for a Rick Barnes-led squad.
(4) Duke (Wait For a Live Team Total Over) vs. (1) Houston
Speaking of defense, Houston is one of two teams with a better defense than Tennessee per Kenpom, ranking first in AdjD. That unit was tested in their last matchup against Texas A&M, barely surviving in overtime. They now face another tough offensive test against Duke and their floor-stretching prowess.
Duke fields plenty of elite shot makers, as well as a game-changing big man in Kyle Filipowski who can dominate on the block and outside the arc. Versatility in the scoring department with your offense helps break down an elite defense as that stretches them out thin and limits their ability to smother shots.
Duke is capable of doing just that as their starting five all-average double figures in points per game. It’s nearly impossible to guard all five, having to sacrifice coverage somewhere as leaving them in singular coverage can be detrimental to their shot-making ability. Duke ranks 18th in Effective Field Goal Percentage, averaging an eFG% of 55.3% from the floor.
The reason I want to wait on betting their team total over is that Duke’s offensive success will stem from shot-making. That brings a high level of variance into the total as jump shots are far less consistent than looks at the rim.
Houston will have fresh legs to start the game, giving them the ability to shift their coverage with ease and smother shots early on. If Duke starts cold but is still getting high-quality looks at a decent rate with their abundance of shot makers and facilitating ability, then they will be a play on the live line. Expect a tight defensive slugfest early on with the scoring pace geared to ramp up as coverage shifts get sluggish.
(11) North Carolina State vs. (2) Marquette (Over 150.5) (-115, DraftKings)
North Carolina State has been the picture-perfect definition of what momentum can do for you, carrying their ACC Conference Championship title run into the Sweet 16. It’s not a fluke either as this team has created serious matchup advantages with DJ Burns carrying the offense with his elite blend of low post dominance and facilitation abilities.
He will be heavily featured in this matchup as defending the painted area has been a weakness for Marquette’s defense. The Golden Eagles rank 123rd in Opposing Two Point Completion Percentage, allowing opposing offenses to shoot 49.3% from inside the arc. That number has only increased in their past three matchups, shooting up to an eyebrow-raising 52.6%.
Marquette may have the height advantage with Oso Ighodaro standing at 6’11”, but Burns has the mass to move him with ease as he is 40 pounds heavier. This will force Marquette into throwing more doubles to limit the high-quality looks at the rim, creating gaps in their coverage for the Wolfpack to exploit.
That bodes well for an offense whose scoring is heavily reliant on their guard play outside of Burns, bringing in a blend of slashers and spot-up shooters to deal their damage. Especially when Marquette's perimeter defense does not fare much better than their previously mentioned interior defense, allowing opposing offenses to shoot 33.6% from deep.
As for Marquette and their ability to contribute towards the over, they should have no issue with running their screen-heavy assault. With Tyler Kolak back in the fold, Marquette’s offense has been a nightmare to deal with as he and Kam Jones feed off of each other as two elite scorers with one driving and the other playing off the ball.
That puts opposing defenses into rough situations, having to double Kolak and get the ball out of his hands, cover the gaps against Jones moving off the ball, and lay a body on a crashing big from the initial screening set. Burns may be a big body with soft footwork, but this is a tough ask for him to routinely be shifting and make the right defensive read against a hyper-efficient offense.
Expect both units to get their scoring going from the opening tip as each unit has massive advantages over the other. North Carolina State is also worth a look on the live line, especially if they start out cold from deep while generating high-quality looks with Marquette being forced to double Burns.
