Best Bets for the Sweet 16 Games on Thursday, March 28th.

After a few days off, March Madness returns this Thursday with the start of the Sweet 16.

Say what you want about the favorites dominating the round of 32, it at least provides us with plenty of awesome matchups over the next four days. Unlike the past two rounds, the Sweet 16 will feature one best bets article per day instead of broken into two.

Below are my best bets for the Sweet 16 games on Thursday, March 28th.

Best Bets for the Sweet 16 - Thursday Games

(4) Alabama vs. (1) North Carolina (Wait on Team Total Over)

As noted in my initial Bracket Reveal Best Bets article, this is a dream matchup for the North Carolina Tar Heels in their efforts to get to the Elite 8. The Tar Heel defense may negate Alabama’s offensive strengths, all while unable to stop the versatile Tar Heel offense. 

North Carolina opened at -3 and has been quickly bet up to -4.5 as of writing. While I backed them ATS on the opener, I am now looking to back them in two other correlated ways.

The first way is on their team total over. If there is one constant that this game may feature, it's that North Carolina should have no issue with scoring against Alabama’s weak defense. Defense has been a major issue for the Tide all season long, ranking 117th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per Kenpom.

A brunt of their defensive inefficiencies comes from their inability to defend inside the arc, ranking 199th in Opposing Two Point Completion Percentage per TeamRankings. That spells potential doom against an offense that can play inside-out with Armando Bacot dealing damage in the paint.

While Bacot is a scoring prowess in his own right, the Tide’s defense will be pressured with slashers like RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau, and Harrison Ingram roaming around the perimeter as well. That stretches an already thin defense, leaving North Carolina with plenty of gaps in coverage for them to exploit.

Even more beneficial towards our team total over, the Tide foul at one of the highest rates in the league which gives us extra scoring opportunities with no time taken off the clock. Armando Bacot has taken massive strides in production with his free throw shooting, averaging 78.1%, while RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan clock in at +87%.

North Carolina will also receive an uptick in the number of total offensive possessions in more ways than one, giving a higher chance to clear their team total over. The first way is by pace of play as the Tar Heels will have no issue with wanting to play fast. North Carolina ranks 41st in Tempo while the Tide clock in at seventh.

The other driving force of an uptick in the number of scoring opportunities comes from the Tar Heels rebounding. Specifically on the offensive end as they face an Alabama defense that also ranks well below average in Defensive Rebounding Rate. While the Tar Heels have taken a step back in Offensive Rebounding Rate since the retirement of Roy Williams and his Tar Heel philosophy, the Heels still possess a massive advantage in this matchup.

While I debated taking a full game over as the Tide should benefit from the Tar Heels' struggles with Opposing Shot Quality, Alabama brings in too much variance with their heavy perimeter usage. I will instead take the more consistent path of scoring with the Tar Heels team total over, but will wait to see if the total continues to drop as we lead to tip-off for the best possible number.

(1) UConn moneyline vs. (5) San Diego State (Parlay with UNC ML) (-132, FanDuel)

As I mentioned in the previous section, I will be backing the Tar Heels in two ways heading into their matchup. The first way was on their team total over and the second way will be in a two-team moneyline parlay with the Connecticut Huskies.

Like UNC, UConn’s spread took immediate action from the opener. While I managed to get the Tar Heels on the open, I sadly missed out on a UConn -9.5 when the market first opened up. Tying them into a moneyline parlay with UNC helps me bridge that gap as I believe both are in a great position to advance into the Elite 8.

They've shown that they are in a class all of their own since the start of tournament play and it should be no different with their advantages against the Aztecs.

UConn’s offense thrives with their size, separation ability off of screens, and relentless pursuit of crashing the glass. All facets of an offense that can break the best defenses, including the Aztecs who rank 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Donovan Clingan is a matchup nightmare and has a five-inch height advantage against the tallest player for SDSU who plays meaningful minutes. Even if UConn’s offense runs cold from the perimeter, Clingan will be able to give their offense extra possessions with his offensive rebounding prowess.

Extra offensive possessions for UConn are something San Diego State can not afford to have go against them as it is already hard enough to match their scoring pace. Especially with scoring being a potential issue for them on the other end as they rank 60th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and face a Huskies defense who clocks in at 11th in AdjD.

Unlike Alabama’s defense who gives up looks at the rim and at the perimeter at a high rate, UConn locks both areas down. They will gladly allow you to take ill-advised shots underneath the arc, but will suffocate you into turnovers and havoc-minded plays if you stop and think otherwise which will lead to easy points in transition for the Huskies.

It’s an intriguing matchup on paper as this is a rematch from last year's National Championship, but expect more of the same with UConn taking care of business as they make their way to the Elite 8. Parlay both UNC and UConn’s moneylines into a two-team moneyline parlay as well as play UConn live at -9.5 or better should they start out slow.