Week 5 kicks off with a divisional tilt between the Buccaneers and Falcons, and Geoff Ulrich is here with his best bets for Thursday Night Football:
The Falcons and Buccaneers square off this week in an NFC South battle that is likely to go a long way to determining who comes out on top of the division at the end of the year. The Falcons got to .500 last week, outlasting the Saints, who allowed a late drive to Atlanta and a 58-yard field goal to end the game.
Falcons vs. Bucs TNF Betting Preview
- Spread: Falcons -1.5 (-112 DraftKings)
- Total: 43.5
Atlanta has looked decent to start the season but their offense still has work to do. They rank just 21st in EPA per play on offense and just 27th in EPA per rush. Bijan Robinson has averaged just 2.56 yards per carry (ypc) over his last two games and is now dealing with some kind of hamstring strain. He’s likely to play in this game, but Atlanta needs more explosive plays from both Robinson and Kyle Pitts (3 targets, 0 catches in Week 4) going forward.
Tampa Bay enters this game off a big win over the Eagles, who allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 347 yards and two TDs. Tampa has looked good in the majority of their starts but they did allow 27 points to the most anemic offense in the league in the Broncos two starts ago and rank dead last in EPA against the rush this year. The Falcons have allowed just 6.0 yards per attempt to date and have a solid secondary, led by Jessie Bates and AJ Terrell. Expect them to limit Tampa Bay’s big plays much better than the Eagles did and make Mayfield beat them in the shorter passing game.
Both of these teams have flaws but with elite offensive personnel on both sides of the ball, there is the potential for one, or both offenses, to outperform in this spot. With so many variables, diving into the injury news and matchups will be key to determining whether or not there is an edge on the spread or total.
We’ll cover that and more below, as we target the best sides and props in this Week 5 matchup.
Thursday Night Football Injury Notes
Falcons
OUT
Buccaneers
OUT
As you can see, Atlanta is relatively healthy. Bijan Robinson is dealing with some kind of hamstring strain but is slated to play and doesn’t carry an injury designation. Fantasy Owners likely aren’t happy about the news, but the Falcons do have one of the best backups in the league in Tyler Allgeier, so even if Robinson is limited, there is not much if any downgrade to Allgeier seeing more snaps.
Tampa’s injury situation is much more dire. Safety Antoine Winfield is out, as is LB SirVocea Dennis and DT Calijah Kancey. They’re also down their top two tertiary receivers Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan, making it easier for the already solid Falcons’ secondary to hone in on their top two WRs.
I’m not going crazy in this spot, but I am betting Atlanta at -1.5 or better. Tampa Bay has benefited from a schedule that saw them catch Jayden Daniels in his first-ever pro start and then caught an Eagles team that was decimated on offense. I like the way Atlanta has looked in their last couple of games and expect one or both of Robinson and Allgeier to have a big game on Thursday.
That should put more pressure on Baker Mayfield than he felt last week against the Eagles and potentially lead to an INT (or two) much like it did against Denver, who also possesses a great secondary and was able to limit Mayfield to his worst game the season.
I don’t have a play on the total this week, which has crept up to 44.0, but at the current levels, it is an under or pass for me. With Tampa Bay hurting on defense you could see Atlanta put up 25-plus points on their own, but would still need the Buccaneers-–without two of their top four receivers-–to get to 20+ themselves to get the cash on an over.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets for Falcons vs. Bucs
Rachaad White over 21.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
- 5+ rec (+260) / 6+ rec (+550) / 7+ rec (+1100; bet365)
There has been a lot of discussion about White’s role lately and potentially losing playing time to rookie Bucky Irving. Irving did take 10 carries in the Bucs' Week 4 win, but White actually outgained him as a rusher (10 car. 49 yards) and played on 59% of the snaps.
White also dominated the passing down situations, as he played on 78% of the long down and distance snaps, and 100% of the two-minute snaps (per our Utilization Report).
Long story short, Irving will continue to get his chances on early downs but White is the team's best receiving back and should continue to dominate those opportunities.
We have White projected for 25.0 receiving yards this week on Fantasy Life, but with Tampa Bay down two receivers and multiple names on defense, this is a spot where I expect White to be leaned on, and potentially quite heavily.
I like playing White’s regular receiving over up to 22.5, but am also looking at playing alternate lines on White’s receptions (5+/6+/7+) and yards (50+). He’s already caught 5 receptions in a game twice this year and went for 6 and 65 yards against Atlanta early on in 2023. Playing the over on yards is fine, but this is a spot where I also like dreaming a little bigger and playing for a big night from one of the most efficient receiving backs in the league.
Baker Mayfield over 22.5 completions (-105; Caesars)
The Falcons are great at limiting big plays but do allow their fair share of short completions. QBs facing Atlanta this year are completing 73% of their passes, which ranks their pass defense 31st so far this year in that category. The Buccaneers are also going to be without two of their big play downfield receivers Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan, making it likely that Mayfield is going to be relying on the likes of Rachaad White and Cade Otton more often, who rend to run shorter, more high-percentage routes.
Mayfield is only projected for 22.0 completions this week but he’s completed a career-best 70% of his passes to date and his defense is vulnerable this week, making it likely he’ll be dropping back 30+ times again in this spot. With a -105 hanging at Caersars, this is an over I’d play down to -115 just given the matchup and how this game is projecting in terms of game flow.
