Week 7 kicks off with a TNF tilt between the Saints and Broncos, with Geoff Ulrich here with his best bets for Thursday Night Football:

Saints vs. Broncos Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown

The Broncos and Saints both enter Week 7 off of losses but they were of markedly different variety.

The Broncos were beaten by a solid Chargers team who capitalized on some early mistakes by Denver and held on in the second half as the Broncos fought back and made the game interesting. Denver’s defense held the Chargers to just 350 yards for the game, while Bo Nix threw for two TDs (and potentially could have had a third had Denver not settled for a FG on a late-game drive).

The Saints played in one of the most bizarre games of the season last week as they scored 27 points but still lost the game by 24 after allowing the Buccaneers to drop 51 points. Spencer Rattler threw for 243 yards and a TD in his debut, but only completed 55% of his passes and threw two INTs. The assignment for him this week doesn’t get easier either as he’ll be without his two top receivers and will face a Broncos defense that is ranked fourth in EPA per play and has only allowed five passing TDs this season.

Both teams are dealing with a ton of big injuries, will have rookie QBs under center, and are coming off slightly embarrassing losses. It sets up as a volatile matchup but with the lines set at under a FG, I think there is a clear team to side with this week.

We’ll dive into the best spread bets and props below, as well as give you a clear picture of the injury report for both teams (as of writing).

Thursday Night Football Injury Notes

Saints

Broncos 

The Saints have already ruled out their top two WRs Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave, leaving them with Bub Means as their top WR. They should look to Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau to carry a bigger load, but the bigger question mark is around Alvin Kamara’s availability who is playing through a myriad of injuries to his ribs, hand, and hip.

Kamara seems likely to play, but his effectiveness has been dwindling after a hot start and the Broncos will be able to hone in on him with the Saints best receivers out.

The Broncos are mostly healthy but will be without their top corner Pat Surtain in this game, who is still in concussion protocol. Vance Joseph’s defense performed well last week in the second half after Surtain left and with a couple of days to prep (and the Saints having no legitimate receiving threat), it’s a huge edge to Denver, who should make things extremely tough for Spencer Rattler in his second start. 

Saints vs. Broncos - Spread and Total Bets

I bet this game (and put it in our Free NFL Bet Tracker) when it was Denver at -1.5, but would be happy playing at -2.5, even if it’s juiced to -120.

On top of Denver having an edge on defense, the Saints have been a disaster on defense over their last couple of games. They’ve sunk to 26th in yards per attempt against and gave up 217 rushing yards to the Buccaneers backup RBs in Week 6.

From a trend perspective, we also have a nice edge with Sean Payton to exploit, who is 3-0 ATS on the road already this year and 80-58-3 ATS on the road or a neutral site for his career. Dennis Allen continues to be one of the best head coaches in the league to bet against, as he’s now 1-5 ATS as a home underdog and 16-23-1 ATS since taking over the Saints. 

Our Game Model on Fantasy Life has this game projected at 37.0, which is right in line with the current market. I would be inclined to lean over in this spot as I think there is plenty of chance we see Sean Payton run up the score a little if given the chance late. It’s something to think about if making SGP’s, especially if you are including TD props from some of the Broncos skill players (see more on that below). 

Thursday Night Football Best Bets for Saints vs. Broncos

Lucas Krull Anytime TD (+950; Caesars)

Let’s start off with a big one. Lucas Krull is coming off a game where he played a season-high 33 snaps, saw a season-high four targets, and posted a season-high 73% route rate. 

 

Despite the solid numbers and his head coach suggesting he wants to get his younger players more involved (naming Krull specifically in that group) Krull is still priced like a backup tight-end in the TD market, and is as big as +950 at Caesars.

Given the Saints are decimated by injury and allowed 52 points last week, this is also a spot where I could see their old head coach running up the score to add insult to injury and go out of his way to get players like Krull more involved in the red zone.

I’d play Krull down to +700 in this spot and he’s well worth a small wager in the anytime TD market on Thursday Night at his current price. 

Troy Franklin Longest reception over 12.5 yards (-115; bet365)

One player we know will be more involved this week is Troy Franklin, who set a season-high last week in snaps played with 36. Josh Reynolds was put on IR this week and the Broncos were already committed to giving Franklin more work, who has posted 3 receptions and 51 yards over the last two games.

I bet Franklin over 15.5 receiving yards, and placed it in our Free NFL Bet Tracker when his receiving yard props were released, but with the Reynolds news his total has been steamed up to 20.5.

If you want exposure to Franklin, who seems likely to see an increase in targets, then I would suggest pivoting to his longest reception prop instead. Franklin’s a downfield burner who has averaged over 17.0 yards per catch the last two games and has come down with a 20+ yard reception in each of his last two starts.

Just given Franklin’s usage to date, it’s unlikely he’ll clear 20.5 yards (his current receiving yard total) without at least one long catch-making, this longest reception total is slightly more preferable after the big move on his regular receiving line.

Thursday Night Football Underdog Pick'em Entry

I wrote about Franklin above and with his longest reception prop available on Underdog at 12.5, that’s still a total I like going higher on and building out tickets with. With the Saints decimated on offense, and facing one of the premier secondaries in the league, the Lower on Spencer Rattler Longest Completion is also a prop I don’t mind targeting. 

No offense to Bub Means or Mason Tipton, but with no Olave or Saheed, Rattler’s best chance of hitting the Higher on this prop this might be on an end-game Haily Mary or a broken screen pass. On that note, I expect the Saints to go run heavy in this spot and potentially give Jamaal Williams a few extra snaps than he’s seen the past couple of weeks.

Williams has been stymied by game flow more than anything of late. However, we still have projected at 4.4 carries and 15 rush yards for this game against the Broncos, giving us a solid edge to attack with a Higher on his 9.5 total for Thursday.