Division rivals clash on Thursday as the Bengals head to Baltimore and Geoff Ulrich is here with his best bets for Thursday Night Football Week 10:

This week’s Thursday Night Football game sets up to be one of the highlights of the Week 10 slate. The Ravens and Bengals played in a thriller in Week 5, with the Ravens coming out victorious 41-38. The Bengals botched numerous opportunities to win that game (including a missed 53-yard FG in OT) but to their credit, have gone 3-1 since, and are coming off their most convincing win of the season last week, a 41-24 thrashing of Las Vegas.

TNF Week 10 Betting Breakdown & Best Bets - Ravens vs Bengals

Despite the Bengals being stuck at 4-5, Joe Burrow continues to play at a very high level, ranking second in TD passes on the season with 20, and ranked 4th in EPA per play at QB.

Most weeks, Burrow would be the best signal caller on the field, but it’s hard not to give that honor to Lamar Jackson, who might be playing better football than he was last season when he was named league MVP. Jackson also has 20 TD passes on the year but is averaging a career-best 9.3 yards per attempt and a stout 56 yards per game rushing.

The Ravens had a bit of a shocking loss two weeks ago to the Browns but bounced back in a big way last week against the Broncos, manhandling the young team 41-10 in Baltimore.

While both of these defenses have flaws, there is no doubt we have two of the best offenses in the league meeting up this Thursday with the Ravens offense ranked 2nd in EPA per play and the Bengals ranked 7th. That’s also led to a game total that has risen all week and now reached 53.5 points in spots.

So, with a ton of offense expected, will the Bengals be able to keep up and get a much-needed division win, or will the Ravens prevail again in the rematch? We’ll cover that, injuries, and more below, as we target the best sides and props in this Week 10 matchup.

Injury Notes For Ravens vs Bengals

Bengals

Ravens

Best Bets On The Spread and Total For Week 10 TNF

The spread for this game hasn’t moved much all week, and it’s for good reason. These teams are both relatively healthy and coming off big weeks, which makes it hard for the majority of the sharps or public to side with a specific team. On the one side, we have the Ravens, who are an elite team and in most people’s top three in terms of power rankings. But on the other side, we have the Bengals, who have always outperformed in these spots with Joe Burrow, who is 16-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 points or more for his career. 

The Bengals have progressed too much, since losing to the Ravens, to fade them in this spot. They may have gotten some addition by subtraction in losing Zack Moss, which has allowed the more efficient Chase Brown to move into an everydown role.

They’ve also gotten better play from both DE Trey Hendrickson (six sacks in his last three games) and TE Mike Gesicki (12 catches, 173, and 2 TDs in his last two games) of late. Gesicki specifically gives them an added way to attack Baltimore who is weak in mid-field coverage and has allowed the third most yards to opposing TEs. 

I logged a Bengals +6.0 bet in our NFL Bet Tracker and would play them at that number down to -115.

In terms of the total, it’s now sitting at a ridiculous 53.5 points at some books. It’s going to be a pass for me, but our Game Model on Fantasy Life has this total listed at 55.2 (the largest projection of the season to date) with a lean to the over. If you want to see what our models are projecting for the rest of the week, don’t forget to sign up for a FantasyLife+ subscription before Sunday.

I break down the best props for this week’s matchup below.

Ravens vs. Bengals Best Bets For Thursday Night Football 

Chase Brown Alt Receiving Yards: 25+ yards (+105; DraftKings) 

  • 40+ yards (+295) 
  • 50+ (+500)

Since he’s playing the Ravens, who tend to be very tough against the run, my solution is to target Brown in the passing game, where I think he has a ton of upside this week. With Tee Higgins out last week, Brown saw a season-high 5.0 targets, played a season-high 59 snaps, and posted a 63% route rate, producing 37 yards as a receiver.

The Ravens linebackers also aren’t great in coverage which has led to plenty of big receiving games by opposing TEs AND opposing RBs. 

According to our DvP Tool, Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs and allows an average of 5.7 targets per game to the RB position, which is the seventh-highest mark in the league. On the season, they’ve allowed five different RBs to go for 40+ receiving yards against them.

Considering Brown managed 5.0 rec and 37 yards last week, with the Bengals ahead for most of them, there is every chance he’s able to produce an even better outcome in Week 10. Laddering Brown through 25 receiving yards at +105, 40 receiving yards at +295, AND 50+ receiving yards at +500 allows us to play this matchup for maximum upside, and get exposure to Brown’s ceiling as a receiver.

Diontae Johnson Over 21.5 receiving yards (-115; bet365)

Johnson saw zero targets on just over 30% of the snaps played last week against the Broncos. It was an inauspicious start, but not something I’d be overly worried about. The former Panther only had one or two practices to acclimatize and the Ravens only threw the ball 19 times in the lopsided win.

Johnson’s far more likely to be more involved this week, after going through a full week of game prep (albeit on a short week), and has a great matchup against a thin Bengals secondary that has struggled mightily against slot receivers. Overall, the Bengals have allowed the 13th most yards to opposing WRs this season, and our DvP Tool awards the opposing WRs group facing off with Cinninatti with a +12.2-yard boost (the seventh largest in the model).

From a real-world standpoint, the Ravens didn’t get Johnson, who remains one of the league’s best separators, to just run cardio for half the game. I expect he’ll get involved this week on the stat sheet, and could even be an integral part of this game for the Ravens, should their defense fail to slow down the extremely hot Joe Burrow.

With his props sitting at such a ridiculously low number, I have no issue in playing the over on Johnson, up to 22.5 yards (-110).

Underdog Picks for Week 10 Thursday Night Football

4-Way Underdog Pick'em

Taking the props from above and building on them I put together a sensible four-way ticket that pays a healthy 10x multiplier for this Thursday.

The Bengals have been one of the easiest teams for opposing QBs to rush against over the past couple of seasons and Lamar Jackson himself has now gone for over 50 yards rushing against the Bengals in three straight games. Both of our projectionists on Fantasy Life have Jackson going for over 50 yards this week making his Higher one I’m fine adding in.

As a correlation play, I'm also fine adding in the Lower on Derrick Henry’s rush attempts, to go along with Jackson’s Higher. Henry may get to 20+ carries in this spot, even if Jackson goes for a big game on the ground, but the Bengals have been moving/holding the ball on offense a lot over their past couple of games, leading to some lower outputs for opposing RBs.

Henry’s projected for 17.5 rush attempts on Fantasy Life this week, giving us a small edge (along with good correlation with our plays) to the lower on his 18.0 carry total.