Expect even more offense on Thursday between the Eagles and Commanders and get in on the action with Geoff's best bets for Thursday Night Football Week 11:

This Thursday Night brings us another epic divisional matchup between NFC East rivals the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders. Washington enters this game at 7-3 but only trails the Eagles by a half-game, who sit with 7 wins but only 2 losses.

Eagles vs Commanders TNF Betting Preview and Best Bets

  • Spread: Eagles -3.5 (-110; bet365)
  • Total: O/U 49.0

The Commanders are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers, who hit on a late TD on a 32-yard pass to Mike Williams and then managed to stop the Commanders who just missed converting a 4th and long near mid-field–which would have set them up for a winning FG attempt.

Regardless, the Commanders have outperformed all season and even though he has had a couple of down games in a row, Jayden Daniels is not someone to take lightly in this spot. He’s second in EPA + CPOE composite ratings behind only MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and comes in with a 68.7% completion rate and 9:2 TD:INT ratio on the season.

The Commanders' defense is a little more worrisome if you are backing them in this spot, as they have allowed an average of 25 points against over their last two games, despite facing mediocre QBs in Russell Wilson and Daniel Jones. They’ll also be without trade deadline acquisition Marshon Lattimore again who is out with a hamstring issue.

Jalen Hurts is also on an absolute tear right now, making this an even more difficult spot for the Commanders. Hurts is now second in the league with 10 rushing TDs on the season, with eight of those 10 rushing TDs coming over the last four games. 

The Eagles are up to ninth in EPA per play on offense, but are 5th in EPA per rush and finally have their full complement of receivers with Dallas Goedert back in the fray.

The Eagles are favored to win, but they are up against one of the best young QBs in the game, and an up-and-coming Washington squad that is coached by the experienced and defensive-oriented Dan Quinn.

So is this a spot to take the dog, or do the Eagles keep rolling and reestablish themselves as a true NFC elite tonight? We’ll answer that and more as we dive into the spread, total and best props to target for betting, below.

Injury Updates For Thursday Night Football

Commanders

OUT

QUESTIONABLE

Eagles 

Is There Betting Value On The Eagles On TNF?

The line in this game moved to 3.5 on open and has stayed there all week. The Eagles seem to be taking in a little more of the handle and total bets in this spot, so there is a mix of public and sharp action on them.

I’m not opposed to going against that and taking Jayden Daniels at over a FG, but this line seems very efficient given the recent form of these two teams so the spread will likely be a pass for me.

Our Game Model on Fantasy Life has this line projected at -4.4 so it is showing theoretical value on the Eagles.

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In terms of the total, this line has pretty much stayed solid at 48.5 all week. There don’t seem to be any weather concerns in Philadelphia for Thursday, although winds are expected to be in the 7-8mph range which is getting close to the 10-15mph threshold where passing games can be adversely affected.

We have the total projected at 49.3 and I would lean over, as long as the forecast doesn’t get worse between now and kickoff. However, neither of these lines stick out to me as must bets so I’m happy to focus on props in this spot and see if we can’t make a profit exclusively off our player projections this Thursday.

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I break down the best props for this week’s matchup below.

Best Bets For Eagles vs Commanders TNF

Noah Brown Over 38.5 receiving yards (-113; FanDuel) 

Brown is starting to come on as one of the Commanders’ primary targets in the passing game. Over the last four games, his targets and production read as follows.

  • Week 8: 3 receptions, 73 yards and a TD on 6 targets (18% target share)
  • Week 9: 5 receptions, 60 yards on 6 targets (32% targets share)
  • Week 11: 3 receptions, 33 yards on 7 targets (21% targets share)

As teams try to clamp down on Terry McLaurin, Brown is starting to become the preferred number two downfield target, with Zach Ertz acting as more of a safety outlet in the middle. 

The Eagles secondary has been tough to get yards against lately, but they’ve also faced some weaker QBs that may have skewed their overall numbers. Overall, we have Brown projected for 5.6 targets and 43 yards this week, and with a couple of books hanging sub-40.0-yard totals on Brown, I was happy to get exposure to his over this week. 

Dallas Goedert Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)

  • 50+ receiving yards (+280; bet365)

The Commanders' pass defense has improved since the beginning of the season but they’ve still struggled to contain solid after-the-catch receivers at TE all year. Mark Andrews went for 3-66-1 vs them in Week 6, Ja’Tavion Sanders went for 6-61 against them in Week 7, and Theo Johnson went for 3-51-1 vs them in Week 9.

Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert, who caught a 14-yard TD last week, is available as big as +370 on FanDuel for an anytime TD, which is very playable at that price. For myself, I'd rather bank on Goedert racking up a few big plays and going over his 30.5 receiving-yard total, as we have him projected at 34.0 yards this week on Fantasy Life.

The number also seems slightly low, given that Goedert went over this number in four straight games to start the season.

I’ll also dabble that Goedert hits the 50+ yard plateau, an alternate line that is available as big as +280 on bet365. On top of having a plus matchup, he’s also likely to be in a much more positive game script than he was last week, where he saw three targets, and Jalen Hurst only threw the ball 20 times.

Underdog Pick'em Plays For Thursday Night Football

Even with the Eagles and Commanders defenses playing better of late, I do think the offenses on both sides will be able to move the ball. As mentioned above, I love this spot for Dallas Goedert who is an underrated after-the-catch receiver and is up against a team that allows chunk plays over the middle on the regular.

On the other side, Jayden Daniels easily cleared 220 yards in six straight games at one point this season and torched pass defenses like the Bears, Saints, and Browns along the way. The Steelers did a good job of limiting the big pass plays but I’m not sure if the Eagles can replicate that feat.

Additionally, if I expect Philadelphia to be able to move the ball with Hurts and make big plays to receivers like Goedert, that should open up Daniels for more dropbacks and hopefully push himself and Brown over their yardage props.

 

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