This week kicks off with a divisional matchup between the Steelers and Browns, and Geoff is here with his best bets for Thursday Night Football Week 12:

Thursday Night Football Week 12 Betting Preview

  • Spread: Steelers -3.5 (-110; bet365)
  • Total: O/U 36.0

The Steelers enter Week 12 off an emotional win over the division-rival Ravens. Pittsburgh was a 3.0-point underdog on the spread against Baltimore but was able to turn the tables and win outright in a low-scoring contest 18 to 15.

Pittsburgh has to be pleased with itself after they held a Ravens offense that had been steamrolling every team they’d faced to date to just two scores. They also made Lamar Jackson look human, who ended the day with a 207-1-1 line and a 48% completion percentage.

Where the Steelers go from here will be interesting. They’ve been underestimated most of the season but now have a very short turnaround before their next game, a Thursday Night affair with another bitter division rival in Cleveland.

The good news for Pittsburgh is that there isn’t much bark left in this season’s version of the Browns. Cleveland had an emotional win over the Ravens a few weeks ago in Jameis Winston’s first game as the starter but it’s been all downhill since. The last three QBs who have faced the Browns defense have averaged 8.2 yards per attempt, which is the third-worst mark in the league over that span.

There is little doubt that Winston has charged up the Browns' offense a bit, which produced 395 yards through the air last week, but much of those yards also came with the game already out of hand. This Pittsburgh defense is vastly better than the Saints’ and enter this game with 19 forced turnovers on the season (fourth-most in the league) and ranks top 10 in success rate and EPA vs the pass.

Add in a forecast that includes potential rain, snow, and winds over 15 mph for most of the game and you could have a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair where the Steelers defense dominates for most of, if not all of the game.

So, can Winston answer the call and will the Browns to an upset, or will Russell Wilson and the Steelers roll on to another win?

We’ll answer that and more as we dive into the spread, total and best props to target for betting, below.

TNF Injury Report For Browns vs Steelers

Browns

OUT

Steelers

OUT

Both of these teams are relatively healthy, which makes this a more interesting matchup on paper. There is little doubt that the Browns have received a boost from Winston, who has rejuvenated both Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy and made Cedric Tillman look like a legitimate NFL receiver.

Unfortunately, there is always a “but” with Winston, especially when he is going up against a top-tier NFL defense like the Steelers. He’s still prone to overthrows and mistakes downfield which will lead to turnovers against good pass defenses, a trend that reared it's ugly head against the Chargers two weeks ago when he completed three passes to the Chargers secondary.

This game also has weather conditions that call for sustained winds over 15 mph and potentially rain/sleet during the game, which don't jive with Winston’s gunslinger mentality. It’s easy to call for a letdown for the Steelers in this spot, but they’re also the team better built to handle these conditions with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both healthy and capable receivers out of the backfield. Add in a veteran QB like Russell Wilson, who played a ton in the rain and colder weather up in the Northwest for many seasons, and I don’t like the way this game sets up for the Browns much at all.

Our Game Model on Fantasy Life has this line projected at -5.3, so it is showing theoretical value on the Steelers at -3.5 (-110) or better, and that’s the side I prefer as well. Mike Tomlin is 17-9 ATS in divisional games since 2020 and has his team focused on the task at hand every week. As much as I wish this spread was at 3.0, I don’t see enough on the Cleveland side to take them as an underdog.

If you’re against backing Pittsburgh on the spread at over 3.0, I don’t mind playing the Steelers on the moneyline, who is also showing some in that market, as they’re projected at -223 in the model and available as high as -190 at bet365.

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I break down the best props for this week’s matchup below.

Best Bets For Browns vs Steelers Thursday Night Football

Jaylen Warren Over 12.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)

This game is going to be hard to decipher in some ways because of the ever-changing weather forecast. However, regardless of what conditions we get, I do expect that we’ll see a lot of Jaylen Warren in this game when the Steelers have the ball.

Via our Utilization Report, Warren has been the preferred back on 2-minute drives and Long Down and Distance Snaps (LDD), where he’s taken 63% of the snaps for the Steelers this season (despite missing two games).

Jaylen Warren Utilization Report Game Log

 

He also hit a season-high four targets last week against the Ravens and has now converted eight of his last nine targets with Russell Wilson into catches.

We have Warren projected for 17.0 receiving yards this week on Fantasy Life and with higher winds expected, I do expect both offenses to rely more on low aDOT, and higher percentage throws.

That should work to Warren’s advantage, who has gone over 12.5 yards receiving now in four straight games and could be in line for a sneaky big workload as a receiver this Thursday.

Devin Bush Over 5.5 Tackles and Assists (-120; bet365)

With poor weather on tap, why not dip our toes into the defensive market for a hot second?

Bush has been playing a lot recently for the Browns, posting 81% and 72% snap shares over his last two starts. LB Jordan Hicks is practicing in full but is also on the injury report with an elbow/shoulder issue, so there is likely some chance of an in-game injury with him as well—which might push Bush into a clear every-down role.

Regardless, it’s hard to see the Browns limiting Bush much in this spot against his former team, if not for narrative reasons than just for the fact they are going up against a run-heavy Steelers offense and Bush has been playing and tackling well of late.

Over his last two games, the former Steeler has averaged six total tackles and two assists per game, and he also had two stuffs last week against New Orleans. Over his last six games, Bush has now gone over this 5.5 combined total four times, and that includes a game against the Eagles where he played on less than 60% of the snaps.

With the Steelers likely relying on short passing and the run game more in this poor weather, Bush should be in for a lot of work, making his over very playable down to -130 for me this week.

Underdog Pick'em Plays For TNF

I didn’t plan it out this way, but our first two props correlate quite nicely. If Jaylen Warren is getting good usage as a receiver then it will likely be Devin Bush who is chasing him down on many of those short throws.

At the very least, playing for a solid game for Warren correlates somewhat with more opportunities for Bush, making the two an easy pair for a game stack on Underdog this week, given that I already see some value in both of those lines.

I also like the chances of Jameis Winston to throw an INT this week, who is as low as -200 to throw at least one INT on some sportsbooks. Realistically, if Winston does turn the ball over, that also correlates well with more opportunities for Bush, who, as I mentioned above, has seen his snap share rise substantially over the last two games.

 

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