The Rams and 49ers meet this Thursday Night in a pivotal NFC West matchup. Entering this contest the NFC Standings sit as follows.

  • Seattle 8-5 
  • Rams 7-6
  • Cardinals 6-7
  • 49ers 6-7

As strange as it is to see the 49ers languishing in last place they’re not out of things just yet. They’re only a couple of wins behind the Seahawks who are home underdogs against the Packers this week and also have two divisional games left, the first of which is this Thursday vs the Rams.

Week 15 TNF Betting Breakdown: Can the Rams make it three in a row?

  • Spread: 49ers -2.5 (-115; bet365)
  • Total: O/U 48.5

San Francisco still has injury issues they are working through but did get some of their swagger back against Chicago. They outgained Chicago by 290 yards and allowed just 3.2 yards per attempt – after giving up a ton of rush yards to the Bills and Packers in their prior starts.

As good as they played, part of that Week 14 bump was due opponent. The Bears are a dead team walking at the moment and showed it last week, as the firing of Matt Eberfus signaled the end of their season – and playoff hopes.

This week, they’ll face a team that is not only in the playoff hunt but ahead of them in that race. The Rams allowed 42 points last week but still managed to sneak past the AFC powerhouse Bills 44-42 in an offensive thriller. Their defense has now allowed over 35 points in two of their last three starts and is certainly an exploitable unit for Purdy and co.

However, as they proved last week, the Rams can match blows with anyone offensively and may not have to worry about facing standout rookie RB Isaac Guerendo (foot) who is questionable to play this week after reeling off 5.2 yards per carry, 50 receiving yards, and 2 TDs vs the Bears.

If Guerendo does miss, the 49ers will have to go with the duo of Patrick Taylor (who is far less explosive than Guerendo) and Israel Abanikanda, who has talent but may not be ready to play a large role in this complex 49ers offense.

So will the Rams cruise to their third straight win and effectively end the 49ers season or will San Francisco rise up, and make this divisional race even more convoluted?

We’ll answer that and more as we dive into the spread, total and best props to target for betting, below.

Injury Notes for Thursday Night Football

Rams

49ers

Best Bets For The Spread And Total For TNF

As good as San Francisco looked last week, it worries me that last week was more of a dead cat bounce situation against a Bears team that looked like they had packed things in for the year.

On top of that, the 49ers have had to field a disjointed starting lineup all season and will have to rely on more substitutes in the backfield this week with Patrick Taylor likely leading the charge in the run game.

Brock Purdy could certainly win this game with his arm but the Rams are fresh off a shootout win last week against Josh Allen and would love nothing more than to force Kyle Shanahan into a back-and-forth game with a healthy Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Matthew Stafford leading the charge on offense. 

While the Rams' defense has had its issues, I’d also have concerns about the 49ers' ability to stop the Rams offense in this game. They’re worse against the run on an EPA-per-play basis than the Rams (28th vs 27th) and will face off against a Los Angeles passing game that is now 5th in EPA per dropback on the season.

The 49ers have been somewhat overvalued all season as they’re just 5-8 ATS on the season, while the Rams started horribly but are now 5-2 ATS over their last seven games.

I won’t say the wrong team is favored but this game does feel like it could be closer to pick’em status and with the spread still under a FG, I like taking the Rams on the Money line rather than bothering with the spread.

While Kyle Shanahan does have a solid heads-up record vs Sean McVay (10-5), this isn’t a fully operational 49ers team and the Rams have traveled well recently, winning their last three road games.

The total is going to be a pass for me, but our NFL Game Model does have this game projected at 49.6, as of writing. If the number dips to 49.0 or less, there is likely a little value in being bullish on these offenses producing a higher scoring game and the over hitting.

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I break down the best props for this week’s matchup below.

TNF Best Bet For Rams vs 49ers

Deebo Samuel over 48.5 receiving yards (-113; FanDuel)

I wouldn’t say this is 100% a vibes or narrative play but certainly, there are extenuating circumstances that make you think Deebo Samuel might show up this week and earn himself a few extra targets.

The 49ers WR started his Week 15 by getting reminded about the dangers of social media after he complained about not getting enough opportunities on X.com and then getting “community noted”.

Jokes aside, this a perfect spot for the 49ers to get Samuel a few more open-field chances in the short passing game, given they may be without Isaac Guerendo (foot). The Rams don't have great cover linebackers and their corners are all undersized. Last week against the Bills they allowed Mack Hollins (4-57-1), Amari Cooper (6-95), and Khalil Shakir (5-106-1) to go for 50+ yards and I expect the bigger Samuel should be able to have his way if he gets the ball in space.

I initially took the over on 3.5 receptions for Samuel when his lines were released (a bet I placed in our free NFL Bet Tracker) but the juice on that prop has moved up to -155 or higher. Today, I’d feel better about taking the yardage on Samuel who has gone over this prop in six of his last seven games against the Rams.

Underdog Pick'em Plays For TNF

I like playing the correlation between Samuel having a big day catching passes in the open field and the potential for Jauan Jennings to disappoint a little with his totals as a result. Jennings has been great of late but he doesn’t have the same after the catch burst Deebo does, so if Samuel goes for a few big gains it could hurt his overall yardage total.

The Rams allow a lot of completions (19th in completion % against) and with Brock Purdy without his top three RBs, and one of the more accurate pocket passers in the league, I can see the 49ers relying on more on short passing and pushing Purdy into 20+ completion territory fast in this game.

Add in the Cooper Kupp higher vs one of his favorite opponents in the the 49ers (averaging 110 yards per game over the last four meetings), in what should be a competitive game environment, and you get a solid 4-way lineup that has solid correlation between the 49ers pass-catchers, and their QB.