Geoff Ulrich is here to bring you his best bets for Thursday Night Football Week 8:

This week’s TNF matchup is a banger. We have two of the better teams in the NFL going up against each other in the Rams and Vikings, with the Vikings traveling West to Los Angeles. 

Thursday Night Football Week 8 Betting Breakdown

The Rams moved to 2-4 last week after beating the Raiders but their record isn’t indicative of how good this team really is. Los Angeles took a top-three team in Detroit to OT in Week 1 (in a game they likely should have won) and beat the 49ers without their top two WRs and a patchwork secondary.

The Rams have dealt with more major injuries than most teams, but are getting healthier and still have a chance of turning their season around with the NFC West division-leading Seahawks sitting at just 4-3.

This week, they get back Cooper Kupp into the mix who is off the injury report and looks set for a full workload. Kupp has been the talk of trade rumors this week but as of now, he’s a Ram and if the Rams do win this game you have to think his chances of staying in LA will rise significantly. 

The Vikings were the NFL darlings of the first quarter of the season but suffered their first setback last week when they were dealt a loss by the Lions. Minnesota has yet to face any real adversity this season so it will be interesting to see how they respond to their first defeat on a short week.

We’ll cover that and more, as we target the best sides and props in this Week 8 matchup.

Best Bets On The Spread And Total

I don’t have a play on the total, although I do lean towards the Under. These teams are a combined 5-7 to the under and the Rams defense has been much better over their last couple of starts, holding the Raiders to 317 yards and 4.2 yards per pass attempt.

I did bet the Rams at +3.0 early in the week when the line was at +100 and booked it in our Free NFL Bet Tracker. There are still some Rams +3.0 lines remaining but they are heavily juiced at -120, so we could see this line move fully to +2.5/-2.5 by game time.

The Rams to me are still somewhat undervalued and while I respect what Kevin O’Connell has done with the Vikings this season, Detroit did expose their defense a bit with their power run game. Los Angeles ranks 4th in EPA per rush on offense and should be able to accomplish a lot of what Detroit was able to do with Jahmyr Gibbs last week (15-116-2).

If they do, that should open up the field more for Matthew Stafford as well, who now has his favorite target back in the fold in Kupp. Add in an improving secondary who faces Sam Darnold (5 INTs) and I think the Rams have a good chance to cover the FG, and potentially win outright.

Our Game Model on Fantasy Life also likes the Rams as it has this line at +2.5 (so slight edge to Rams). If you want to see what our models are projecting for the rest of the week, don’t forget to sign up for a FantasyLife+ subscription before Sunday. 

Rams vs Vikings Injury Notes

Rams

Vikings

The Rams will be down an O-Lineman in Joe Notebloom for this game and WR Jordan Whittington. They’ll likely take that tradeoff, however, in exchange for getting Kupp back, whom they held out last week specifically so he could have extra rest for this pivotal game.

The Vikings have a few injury notes as well as starting linebacker Blake Cashman is out. TE T.J. Hockenson looks set to return, although he remains questionable and is likely to be a game-time decision. Hockenson may not be all that effective given the serenity of the injury he’s returning to but would certainly give the Vikings an upgrade at TE.

I break down the best props for this week’s matchup below.

Rams vs. Vikings Best Bets 

Kyren Williams 100+ Rush Yards (+320; bet365) 

  • 125+ Rush Yards (+850; bet365)

I think Williams’ props have been over-adjusted for this matchup. The Vikings are undoubtedly a solid unit, but they’re not impenetrable. Jordan Mason averaged 5.0 yards per carry (YPC) against them in Week 3 (20-100), Josh Jacobs averaged 5.6 YPC against them in Week 5 (9-51) and Jahmyr Gibbs blasted them last week for 7.73 YPC last week.

Williams is one of the most efficient runners in the league and cleared the 100-yard barrier against Green Bay, another solid defensive unit, back in Week 5. Going back to last season, he’s now gone for over 100 rush yards in five of his last 13 starts with the Rams (38% hit rate).

With his alt-line odds sitting at +320 (23% implied probability), there is a solid edge to bypassing his regular line in this spot and just playing for more upside at 100+. Given how well the Rams run, and how much improved they’ve been defensively of late, I’d also have no issue taking a small piece of Williams to go for 125+, a feat he accomplished three times last year.

Sam Darnold to Throw an INT (-110; BetMGM)

  • 2+ INTs (+400; bet365)

This one is pretty simple. Darnold’s interception props have been suppressed somewhat this year by his hot start, making them a solid spot of value heading inot this game. Despite throwing five INTs on the season, and throwing an INT in five of his six games, taking the over on Darnold to throw an INT is still just -110 on MGM.

We have Darnold projected for 0.8 INTs this week, so he’s a clear favorite on our site to throw for a pick, despite his odds being at pick’em status (sans the juice of course). The Rams have really benefited from getting back CB Darious Williams in the secondary and have now managed four INTs in their last two games.

With the short week and Vikings having to travel, I think this is even a spot where you could look to play for multiple picks, and there is a 2+ INT line on bet365 sitting at +400 I’ll be playing as well.

Underdog Pick'em For Thursday Night Football

I discussed the Williams and Darnold props above, and I think they correlate rather well. A Darnold INT means extra possession(s) for the Rams and more carries for Williams to impose his will.

Additionally, any turnover by Darnold likely increases the chance of more dropbacks late in the game, where Aaron Jones can potentially factor in as a receiver. Jones has averaged a stout 31.66 receiving yards per game and faces a weaker Rams lineback crew that allowed 45 yards on four catches to the Raiders RBs last week and ceded 7 catches and 72 yards to D’Andre Swift in Week 4.

Using Wiiliams’ alt line at 99.5 boosts this three-way all the way 11.4x, and with the solid correlation, it grades out nicely as a pick’em play for Week 8.