The Jets find themselves under the primetime lights yet again to kick off Week 9, and Geoff Ulrich is here with his best bets for Thursday Night Football:

We have two teams whose seasons have gone very differently (thus far) meeting in Week 9 this Thursday, so let's dive in.

Thursday Night Football Betting Preview - Jets vs Texans

  • Spread: Jets -2.0 (-110; bet365)
  • Total: O/U 42.0

The New York Jets are now 2-6 but have played in a ton of close games, with three of their losses coming by a field goal or less. They also had a chance to beat the Vikings late, ultimately losing by six points overseas.

Regardless, the Jets have been terrible at closing things out, even when they’ve outplayed their opponents. They enter this week’s game almost entirely healthy on offense (outside of Allen Lazard) but do have several key defensive players who will miss this game.

They’ll also be debuting a new kicker after Greg Zuerlein was ruled out for this game. Zuerlein missed a FG and an extra point last week and is just 3/7 over his last three games.

The Texans have injury issues to deal with as well, but they’ve dealt with them far better than New York. Nico Collins is still a week or more from returning and they endured another loss at WR last week when Stefon Diggs went down with an ACL tear.

Despite the lack of weaponry, C.J. Stroud has been able to do enough to get wins, and Houston comes into this week’s game with a 6-2 record and now two games up on the Colts (whom they also hold the tiebreaker against) for first in the AFC South.

Houston’s actual play hasn’t been as impressive as their record but they can nearly lock up the division this week (barring an epic collapse) with a win. They’ll look to ride their defense again (which is ranked fifth in EPA per play; and fifth in EPA per dropback) against a Jets team that has continued to struggle with consistency and ranks just 18th in EPA per play. 

So can the Jets turn their season around, or will CJ Stroud find a way to grind out another win? We’ll cover that and more below, as we target the best bets, sides, and props in this Week 9 matchup. 

Injury Notes For Jets vs. Texans

Jets 

OUT

QUESTIONABLE

Texans

OUT

Both of these teams have significant injuries. The Texans will be trying to get a win without both Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins, and without S Jimmie Ward, a significant part of their secondary. The Jets are missing multiple names on defense and will have an unproven kicker in the lineup–although whoever kicks FGs this week for New York will likely be an upgrade over Greg Zuerlein.

Best Bets On The Spread and Total For Thursday Night Football

I want to bet against the Texans, but also don’t want to bet on the Jets. It’s caused me to go back and forth on this game enough that I’m just going to pass on playing the spread. On paper, the Texans are due for a loss. Their defense has been solid, but they’ve also benefited from some weaker matchups (like playing Anthony Richardson last week) and were handled by both the Vikings and Packers. 

I do think the Jets, with both Adams and Wilson working short to intermediate routes, and Breece Hall and Braelon Allen grinding out yards on the ground, will be able to control the flow of this game and get the Texans on their heels a bit, where they’ll have trouble responding without Diggs or Collins. 

MAYBE this is the game where Tank Dell reasserts himself as one of the rising young WRs in the game, but CB Sauce Gardner seems likely to travel with Dell a lot in this spot, making this a tough spot for him to break out.

All of the offensive issues the Texans are likely to face in this game do lead me to a play I do like which is under 42.0 points (-110; bet365). The Texans have been a straight under team this year (6-2 to the under) and the Jets have scored 20 points or less in four of their last five games.

I could definitely see either team getting a lead and the trailing squad having issues moving the ball against what are two of the league's better secondaries.

Our Game Model on Fantasy Life has this total listed at 41.3 with a lean to the under. If you want to see what our models are projecting for the rest of the week, don’t forget to sign up for a FantasyLife+ subscription before Sunday.

I break down the best props for this week’s matchup below. 

Best Bets For Jets vs Texans Thursday Night Football

Xavier Hutchinson Over 18.5 receiving yards (-120; bet365)

I mentioned the Texans' issues at WR above. While they still have Tank Dell, he hasn’t been near as dominant as he was last season and is likely to be the focal point of this Jets secondary. Long story short, someone else is going to have to step up for the Texans and make a couple of plays and I believe that Hutchinson can be that person.

The second-year pro is bigger than Dell and has decent athleticism that should get him a few looks in this spot from Stroud. He’s already been playing in front of some of the other Texans WRs, averaging 42.5 snaps played over his last two games, and saw an increase in route rate last week. 

 

Just from a usage standpoint, I expect Hutchinson to be on the field a lot for Houston and we have him projected for 3.0 targets and 27.0 yards, giving us a solid enough edge to attack on the over 18.5 yards, which has risen to 19.5 (-110) at some books already.

Braelon Allen SGP

  • Over 5.5 carries/20.5 Rush Yards (+155; bet365)
  • 50+ rushing yards (+750; bet365)

On top of trusting our projections, which have Allen going for 6.1 carries in this spot, I just think the rookie is too talented not to see 10-plus touches in a game that should be close, and projects with a spread under a FG. Much like Tyler Allgeier in Atlanta, who keeps earning touches every week despite being behind a talented back in Bijan Robinson, Allen should keep getting worked in as long as this game remains close–or the Jets pull away.

I’m certainly not trying to downplay the Jets' ability to get behind against a team like the Texans but with Houston missing key pieces on offense and the Jets' season in the balance, I expect the score to stay close enough for Allen to play a pivotal role and potentially blow both his carry and yardage props out of the water–making it an ideal spot to combine his usage and yardage overs in an SGP (5.5/20.5/+155) for a bigger payout. 

With that game script in mind, I’ll also be adding a small piece of Allen to go for 50+ rush yards (+750; bet365). Allen has already reached this milestone once (Week 3 against New England) and Houston projects as a funnel to the run defense that has allowed 5.18 YPC to opposing RBs over their last two games. 

Underdog Pick'em Entry For Thursday Night Football Week 9

I got some solid lines on this pick’em lineup early in the week, but our projections are still showing edges on all three plays even at the current prices/lines. 

  • Braelon Allen going higher on his rushing prop does correlate well with Hutchinson going higher as well, just given that any decent game by Allen makes it more likely the Texans are throwing late.
  • I kept it simple with our last play, putting in a volume higher on Davante Adams at 4.5 receptions.
  • Adams only saw six targets against the Patriots but he had a 100% route rate and a 28% target share.