This weekend in the octagon is headlined by a Light Heavyweight title bout, and Mark Drumheller is here with his best bets for UFC 307:
The UFC brings the most dangerous striker on its roster to Salt Lake City to headline UFC 307 this Saturday night. Light Heavyweight champion, Alex “Poatan” Pereira faces Khalil Rountree Jr. in the five-round main event. The 12-fight card takes place at elevation, adding an additional layer of emphasis on fighter conditioning. The cardio dynamic is sure to open up opportunities, especially in totals and props, as bettors hunt for value derived from the market’s adjustments. UFC pay-per-view events have been some of our most profitable cards, so it’s time to cash in with our UFC 307 Best Bets.
BEST BET FOR ALEX PEREIRA VS. KHALIL ROUNTREE JR.
Alex Pereira to win in Rounds 1-2 (-125; DraftKings)
Pereira is a monster. The champ’s intensity engulfs the arena as he makes his way to the Octagon, building the anticipation for him to snap back his bow and take aim at his opponent. His walkout concludes with the coldest stare in the game, only broken up by the sound of the cage door locking.
Pereira’s light heavyweight title defenses have ended in the exact same way--with him brutally knocking out his opponent.
It’s easy to fall in love with the notion that a striker-versus-striker matchup packs enough variance to make the underdog at +380 enticing. However, Alex Pereira is not your typical striker. Here’s what separates the champ from his opponent, and why I am backing Pereira to put Rountree to sleep early on Saturday night.
Pereira is a very cerebral fighter. Like all hunters, “Poatan” uses the first round to track the movements of his prey. He throws kicks and feints while he processes their responses, calculating his plan for the kill shot. Moments before flatlining former champion, Jamahal Hill, Pereira waived off Herb Dean’s attempt at resetting the action. Pereira was completely dialed in, rejecting anything that would disrupt his timing. The fight was already over in his mind. It’s the same reason Pereira was able to dismantle Jiri Prochazka in the rematch. The more information available to Pereira, the easier it is for him to separate his opponent from their consciousness.
When I look at Rountree Jr. in comparison to Pereira's past opponents, solving the puzzle of his newest opponent should happen rather quickly. Rountree Jr.’s tendency to explode into the pocket will come at the crushing cost of Pereira’s left hook.
Pereira has finished his opponent in nine of his 11 wins, and the -485 favorite draws the perfect opponent to continue his streak of devastating knockouts.
Additional props to target:
- Alex Pereira by win by KO/TKO/DQ in Rd2 +400
- Under 1.5 Rounds +110
MORE BETS FOR UFC 307
Jose Aldo ML vs. Mario Bautista (+120; DraftKings)
There are times when the odds make you wonder what you are missing. There are also times when you just jam your money in as fast as you can. Jose Aldo at plus money against Mario Bautista falls into the second category for me. In fact, I think the King of Rio still has the tools to make another run at the title.
Even at age 38, Aldo looks the part of a more refined version of himself, rather than a declining fighter. I bet him in his last bout versus Jonathan Martinez in a similar spot (+150 underdog), and the former featherweight king delivered a decisive win. Aldo tapped into his experience to set the tempo from pillar to post, dictating range with his footwork and beautifully bullying Martinez with bodywork. Aldo’s ability to saw off his opponents with snapping kicks while mixing in combinations to the head and body, allows him to target his opponent at all three levels. Against Martinez, 46% of his significant strikes were focused on softening the body and legs of his opponent.
If you are going to beat Jose Aldo, you are going to have to do it fighting on his terms. His 91% takedown defense includes a three-round fight where he stifled current champion, Merab Dvalishvili, on all sixteen of Merab’s takedown attempts (0-16). The decision loss is the only blemish on Aldo’s record over the past four years.
There continues to be market disagreement as Aldo’s odds have reached as high as +145 early in the week. The tug of war isn’t surprising considering the significance of the age gap. However, this is a massive step up for Bautista, whose last two opponents have combined for five straight losses.
I have seen enough Jose Aldo fights to know he is the outlier. Bet on it.
Prop to target:
- Jose Aldo by decision +180
- Mario Bautista to win by split or majority decision +550
Tecia Pennington to win by decision vs. Carla Esparza (-115; FanDuel)
Carla Esparza is hanging up the gloves after Saturday night. And, there might not be a bigger red flag for bettors. Dana White isn’t always serious, but when he talks about this being a dangerous game to play with one foot out the door, there is merit to his words.
Layer in that the favorite, Tecia Pennington, will be fueled with motivation, and this becomes an incredible situational spot for bettors.
These two fighters are in extremely contrasting positions with Pennington desperate to avoid a third-straight loss. This is pretty close to a must-win fight, and I’m confident that she gets the job done.
Esparza is a ‘takedown-or-bust” wrestler who is overly reliant on controlling the fight on the mat. She has a very low-striking output (2.16 SLpM) and poor accuracy (40%). Pennington's improving takedown defense (65%) showed well against Ricci, defending nine of 10 takedown attempts. The longer the fight plays out in the striking realm, Pennington’s ability to take over with her high-volume approach increases. Esparza’s conditioning, after a long layoff, could also impact her ability to land takedowns in the later rounds. Pennington dropped two straight, but the “Tiny Tornado” is 8-1 as the closing favorite since joining the UFC.
Now that we have landed on the Pennington, it only makes sense to leverage the decision prop in a fight that is -550 to go the distance. In pay-per-view events this year, fights that have closed with a total of 2.5 rounds are 57-12 (82.6%) to the over.
Parlay for UFC 307
- Iasmin Lucindo ML
- Kevin Holland ML
- Raquel Pennington by decision
- ODDS: +409; DraftKings
Our streak got snapped in Paris after our underdog leg got submitted and then twerked on. Talk about rubbing salt in the wound. This week, we are rocking with three favorites to get us back in the win column.
When I see money pouring in on a favorite who is 15 years younger than her opponent, I find a way to get involved. Iasmin Lucindo’s power should be the equalizer on the feet, and open up opportunities for the 22-year prospect to exploit Rodriguez’s leaky takedown defense. Rodriguez has lost three of her last four, with her only win coming over Michelle Waterson-Gomez, who recently retired after five-straight losses.
Betting Kevin Holland can be quite the ride, but his speed and athletic advantages are enough for me to trust him as our second leg. Holland brings better cardio, plus a five-inch reach advantage against Dolidze, who typically operates with a negative striking differential (-.20 SpM).
Lastly, we are counting on Raquel Pennington to close the show in the co-main event. Pennington has been a decision-inducing machine, pushing eight of her last nine fights to the final bell. Main card fights on pay-per-view events have also flown over the total at a 78% rate in 2024. Both fighters are also durable with five-round experience. I will take the scrappy champion to defend her belt by leaning on her striking advantages to squeeze out a decision.
