One of the most anticipated events this year, Mark Drumheller is here to break down his best bets for UFC 308: Topuria vs Holloway:
UFC 308 takes place this Saturday at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The rare early start time allows us to roll out of bed and place our bets on a banger of a card. In one of the most anticipated main events of the year, Illia “The Matador” Topuria puts his featherweight title on the line against former-champion, and BMF title holder, Max “Blessed” Holloway.
The 13-fight card is highlighted by three undefeated fighters on the main card, and I got action on each. Let’s grab our coffee and make some money with our UFC 308 best bets!
BEST BET FOR ILIA TOPURIA VS. MAX HOLLOWAY
Max Holloway ML (+210; Caesars)
“When you guys do the point down, it’s stay there and swing”. Max Holloway spent this week reiterating what made his viral knockout of Justin Gaethje so iconic. The current “BMF” title holder has been clear he is preparing for technical warfare, as opposed to irresponsibly trying to re-create one of the most memorable moments of 2024. It’s the technician in Holloway that makes him so appealing as a +210 underdog.
This fight is going to be determined by Holloway’s ability to control the center of the Octagon, but not by recklessly swinging until death. Topuria does his best work backing up his opponents against the cage and swarming in with lightning-fast combinations.
Closing in on Holloway is a dangerous game to play. Against Gaethje, Max showcased an arsenal of kicks to maintain distance, including a spinning backkick that shattered Gaethje’s nose at the end of the round. “Blessed” is the self-proclaimed best boxer in the UFC, and holds numerous records that highlight his technical superiority on the feet. The most probable outcome is Holloway solving the puzzle in the early rounds, and pouring it on late.
In a five-round fight, Holloway’s volume and durability are a more lethal combination than the body-overhand right that sent Gaethje face-first into the canvas. You simply cannot put Holloway away, and that’s a huge factor considering his striking gets sharper as he picks up on his opponent's tendencies.
Topuria was tested in the championship rounds by Josh Emmett, but it’s not the same when Max is popping you with 7.17 strikes per minute. Unless you're willing to bet against the Hawaiian’s durability, the value side lies with the BMF.
Props to target:
- Over 4.5 rounds +105
- Max Holloway to win by decision +400
Looking for more prop prices for UFC 308? Be sure to check our UFC Prop Finder!
MORE BETS FOR UFC 308
Robert Whittaker ML vs. Khamzat Chimaev (+210; Caesars)
Khamzat Chimaev is a hunter when the cage door shuts. He knows one speed. Four of seven UFC wins have come in the first round. From the opening bell, he ambushes his opponents by chaining takedowns until he can “smesh” them with ground and pound. While watching him maul his opponents is a thing of beauty, a much less dominant version of Chimaev has surfaced since he has faced stronger competition.
Two of Chimaev’s last three fights have ended up going the distance. Against one of the toughest and most experienced opponents of his career, I don’t know how to justify his implied odds (71%) as a -245 favorite.
This is your classic Chimaev-early, Whittaker-late spot for the live betting crowd. However, I’m getting my money in now on Bobby Knuckles at +210. If Chimaev doesn’t put him out early, Whittaker will wash him on the feet, especially in Rounds 3-5.
The market clearly still questions Whittaker’s durability. That’s a fair concern, but I’m confident the former champ has the spatial awareness to turn this into an early chess match, as opposed to the hunger games script that Chimaev thrives in.
Plus, Whittaker has a significant edge with his experience fighting for five rounds. It might be a huge sweat in Round 1, but will know we are on the right side after the first few minutes.
Props to target:
- Robert Whittaker to win in Round 4 +2000
- Khamzat Chimaev to win Round 1 +300
Lerone Murphy to win by decision vs. Dan Ige (-135; FanDuel)
Dan “50k” Ige stole the show at UFC 303 when answered the call to face Diego Lopes on a few hours' notice. But Ige isn’t just about showing up, his gutsy performance against the featherweight title contender proved he can hang with the division’s best. Now for an encore, Ige is getting served up as the perfect litmus test for 14-0-1 Lerone Murphy.
Forget about popularity, the level of respect Ige earned as a fighter could not be higher than it is right now. That’s why it’s jarring, and telling, to see him listed as a +235 underdog against a less-proven opponent in Murphy. I want to see the value in the underdog, but Murphy holds an edge over Ige in most areas outside of power. Ige’s left hand might steal a round, but I am not betting he can fold the undefeated Brit.
Murphy’s two-inch advantage will look more pronounced as he picks apart Ige from distance. He will use his faints to create openings and mix in thudding body kicks with his technical boxing. Outside of being the more technical striker who should be able to dictate the range, “The Miracle” throws with significantly higher output and accuracy. Those factors will present solid optics for the judges seeing Murphy as the busier combatant fighting on his terms.
All that being said, Murphy isn’t putting Ige out. His last three wins have come via decision, and Ige is as tough as it gets. That sets us up to grab the value with Murphy at -135 to get his hand raised after three rounds.
Additional Props to target:
- Lerone Murphy to win by split or majority decision +450
- Dan Ige +3.5 -145
UFC 308 PARLAY
- Geoff Neal vs. Rafael Dos Anjos to go the distance
- Rafael Cerqueira vs. Ibo Aslan Under 1.5 rounds
- Ilia Topuara vs. Max Holloway - Fight to start Round 5
- Payout: +508; DraftKings
It’s an early card, so I want some early action.
Our first two legs feature preliminary bouts starting with a fight between veterans Geoff Neal and Rafael Dos Anjos. Neal’s power is the main factor suppressing the odds, but Dos Anjos has shown solid durability in the twilight of his career. He went the distance against Renato Moicano and Vincente Luque, and even lasted into the fifth round in defeat against Rafael Fiziev. His KO loss to Fiziev was the only time he has been knocked down in recent memory. Don’t make a habit of banking on the durability of a 40-year-old, but RDA should survive long enough to bring this leg home.
The light heavyweight slugfest between Cerqueira and Aslan has been moved from the first fight of the card to the featured prelim. It’s clear the promotion is expecting violence. Both fighters are cut from the same cloth, relying on power and throwing defense to the wind. Neither fighter has a reliable gas tank. Cerqueira has more ways to finish thanks to his submission game and has seen significant support flipping him to favorite. The move correlates to the under.
Lastly, I had to find a way to bet on Max Holloway’s durability. Fights that closed with a total of 4.5 rounds are 13-3 to the over this year, and Holloway has only been finished once in his storied career. We know Max is fearless in terms of putting everything on the line, so this prop allows us to enjoy any fifth-round theatrics in peace.
