The UFC returns to the Octagon with the long-awaited return of Jon Jones and Mark Drumheller is here with his best bets for UFC 309:
They say history happens at the world’s most famous arena. The greatest mixed-martial artist of all time headlines UFC 309 this Saturday at Madison Square Garden. Jon “Bones” Jones defends his heavyweight title for the first time against former two-time heavyweight champion, Stipe Miocic.
I have dissected each of the 13 fights slated for the event, before crafting a strategic approach to extract the best value from the event. Let’s get the action started with my betting breakdown on the main event, followed by my remaining UFC 309 Best Bets.
BEST BET FOR JON JONES VS. STIPE MOICIC
Jon Jones by KO/TKO/DQ (+120; DraftKings)
Jon Jones is the only man on the planet who can slap a +445 price tag next to somebody as accomplished as Miocic. Imagine coming off a three-year layoff and having to face the greatest mixed martial artists of all time. And having to do it at 42 years old. That’s the position that Stipe Miocic is in.
I watched a young “Bones” ragdoll Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. I saw the look in his eyes when he left Lyoto Machida’s unconscious body slumped on the canvas, and landed a high-head kick that will haunt Daniel Cormier forever.
I don’t subscribe to the notion that Jones fears any man—including Tom Aspinall. The current posturing feels more like Jones carefully moving his pawns to maximize his leverage before negotiating a massive payday for the biggest non-McGregor fight the promotion can push.
If that’s the case, Jones will be determined to finish Stipe in the most violent way possible. While his heavyweight debut was more about solving a puzzle and coming out unscathed, I am convinced Jones enters MSG with bad intentions.
Jones has spoken about the legalization of the 12-6 elbows and revealed he has been training extensively to weaponize them in the most brutal way imaginable. Miocic surrendered takedowns in all of his last three fights, and Jones has the D1 wrestling credentials to put him on his back.
It has all the feels of a storybook ending for Jones to beat the greatest heavyweight of all time at MSG with the same technique that caused his only loss 15 years ago. Or maybe, it could be the greatest storyline for an even bigger fight in 2025.
Either way, I am betting on violence. Jon Jones by knockout.
MORE BETS FOR UFC 309
Charles Oliveira to win inside the distance vs. Michael Chandler (-200; DraftKings)
It was painful to watch Michael Chandler chase a big payday from Conor McGregor—only to come up empty-handed. Now two years removed from his last fight, he jumps back into the fire against one of UFC’s most feared finishers.
In 2021, Chandler closed as a +118 underdog when these two put on an electric, back-and-forth war for the vacant UFC lightweight title. The fight ended with the ref pulling Oliveira off Chandler after a barrage of left hooks sent him to the shadow realm.
There is absolutely nothing that makes me believe this fight ends any differently.
In fact, the red flags are piling up around the 38-year-old Chandler. Outside of his age, the two-year layoff is a major concern against an opponent who pressures right out of the gate. “Iron” Mike’s ability to absorb big shots has always overshadowed his defensive deficiencies (4.68 SApM). It feels different now that he is testing father time.
Oliveira has the most finishes in UFC history (20), and his last two (Gaethje; Dariush) have come in the first round. It only took him 19 seconds into the second round to dispatch Chandler the first time, and you can’t convince me that we are getting a better version of his opponent on Saturday night. Per Jon Kelly at FightNumbers.com, male fighters off a 2-plus-year layoff are 3-18 since the start of 2022.
From a market perspective, odds makers opening Chandler at a juicy +164 couldn’t entice bettors to back the former Bellator champion. He is now sitting in the +200 range, and I believe it’s warranted.
Oliveira’s five-inch reach advantage should allow him to use his collar-tie to control Chandler in the clinch, and clip Chandler with counters when he retreats in the pocket. If the fight hits the ground, the pendulum swings heavily in favor of the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with 21 submission wins.
There aren’t many fights where the best value lies with laying -200 on an inside-the-distance prop, but this one checks out. Chandler has dropped three straight as a betting underdog and has been finished in five of his last six losses.
Additional props to target:
- Charles Oliveira by submission +165
- Michael Chandler by KO +400
For more UFC prop value, be sure to use our UFC Prop Finder Tool before locking in your UFC 309 bets!
Marcin Tybura ML (-146; FanDuel)
Marcin Tybura understands the assignment. When he has a grappling edge, he exploits it. Since 2020, the heavyweight from Poland is 3-0 as a betting favorite and 7-0 when he records at least one takedown. If he can put Jhonata Diniz on his back, he is going to cover this price easily.
Diniz has been taken down in each of his first two UFC fights. He was able to escape with wins, but now faces a big jump in terms of technical grappling with Tybura. Amongst active heavyweights, Tybura is second (behind only Curtis Blaydes) in control time, and ranks in the top five in both top time and control time percentage.
Bettors flipped Tybura to favorite after sitting at even money on Sunday, and it’s been one-way traffic ever since. We aren’t getting the best of the number, but I’m happy to get involved at 59% implied odds.
Best Parlay For UFC 309
- Karine Silva by decision
- Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig Over 1.5 rounds
- Jon Jones ML
- Payout +445 (DraftKings)
You know the rules. We can’t have a huge pay-per-view card without firing on a parlay. We have been close the past two weeks, but close losses don’t pay out. Let’s make this one count.
Karine Silva gets the call to start us off. Silva is 4-0 since winning on the Dana White Contender Series and has cashed as a favorite in each of those fights. Viviane Araujo is a tough out, but Silva should be the more active fighter standing and on the mat. Silva’s diverse kicking game and transitions on the ground will give her the edge in a fight that I see going the distance.
Bo Nickal is a -1100 favorite, but that doesn’t mean he is going to make quick work of Paul Craig. As prospects face tougher competition, their finishing equity dries up, forcing them to learn how to win rounds against the best in the world.
Craig is no world-beater, but he fought Brendan Allen into Round 3 and was only 20 seconds shy of pushing Caio Borralho to the 1.5-round mark. If he can hold off those two, I am betting he can push Nickal into the back half of Round 2.
Lastly, there is no better feeling than closing your parlay with the greatest mixed martial artist of all time. Let the GOAT bring us that bread. Sit back and enjoy the show!
