The action returns to the Apex this Saturday for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira. We have our best bets for UFC Fight Night locked and loaded for the 10-fight card.
Middleweights Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira will collide in the main event with hopes of cracking into the Top 10 with a win. Let’s take a look and uncover where the betting value lies in a fascinating matchup between two fighters riding extended winning streaks.
BEST BET FOR ANTHONY HERNANDEZ VS. MICHEL PEREIRA
Anthony Hernandez ML (-135; DraftKings)
Michel Pereira is very good at getting everyone’s attention. Since returning to the middleweight division, Pereira has run through all three of his opponents in 66 seconds or less. His jaw-dropping finishes highlight the brutal strength and athleticism that leaves us wondering where the ceiling lies for the 31-year-old Brazilian. He is one of the most creative strikers in the game, who isn’t afraid to take massive risks inside the Octagon.
Destroying everyone in your path is truly a gift and curse in the world of Mixed Martial Arts. It fuels a fighter up the rankings, and sets them up for their toughest challenges, without them having to answer the most critical questions for bettors. More times than not, it’s a dynamic that leads to the fighter being overvalued in the market.
I feel strongly that’s the case with Pereira, who hasn’t faced any recent adversity (at middleweight) regarding the cardio concerns that plagued him earlier in his career.
The two numbers that tell the story of this fight are Anthony Hernandez’s 6.62 takedowns per 15 minutes and Pereira’s 94% takedown defense.
Pereira is going to come in hot with bad intentions, wielding body kicks at his opponent to punish him for coming forward. However, Hernandez’s game is no secret. He will systematically look to drain his opponent’s power by breaking him down with his wrestling. Without having faced an opponent with the technical grappling of Hernandez, it’s hard to put a lot of stock in Pereira’s defensive metrics. The smaller dimensions of the Apex’s Octagon will also limit the movement and athleticism that makes him such a dangerous striker.
It’s possible Pereira pulverizes “Fluffy” in the first round, but I feel better with my money on the fighter with grappling and cardio upside. Late submission props are also worth a look if you are interested in longshot positions in the 10/1 to 15/1 range, but the odds on Hernandez’s money line have come down enough to make that my best bet.
Additional props to target:
- Anthony Hernandez ML + over 1.5 rounds (+125)
- Michel Pereira to win in Rd 1 (+400)
MORE BETS FOR UFC FIGHT NIGHT
Darren Elkins ML vs. Daniel Pineda (+105; BetMGM)
It’s not typical that we talk about cardio as much on Apex cards, but this is another fight between a fast starter and an opponent with a significantly more reliable gas tank. Pineda is coming off two consecutive losses, and the market continues to strongly move against him since he opened as a -175 favorite.
Pineda’s win equity starts to dry up once he is forced into an extended fight. Elkins has been in there with some of the sport’s most dangerous fighters (Volkanovski, Oliveira), and has only been stopped in 2 of 8 losses over the past decade.
Elkins also holds the UFC Featherweight record for most overall time spent in top position. The record is fueled by his longevity but shows that Elkins is not afraid to lean on his biggest advantage in this fight--his wrestling.
Elkins has won two of his last three, and has landed 12 of 23 takedowns over those three fights. I see Pineda getting planted on his back early, and losing valuable minutes in guard while looking to set up submissions. I’m confident Elkins avoids danger early, and gas pedals Pineda in the later rounds.
Additional Props to target:
- Darren Elkins to win by decision +350
- Exact Method of Victory - KO/TKO/DQ +110
Charles Johnson to win inside the distance vs. Sumudaerji (+225; DraftKings)
It’s fun when you see everything starting to come together for a fighter. It’s even more exciting when you still believe the market has some catching up to do. Charles Johnson has reeled off three straight wins (all as an underdog), and his comeback win over Joshua Van displayed the finishing instincts that I’m betting we see again.
Johnson knocked Van out in the third round after throwing close to 200 significant strikes. He did an excellent job softening up both the body and the legs before delivering the kill shot from distance. “Inner G” will look to weaponize his pace until he breaks Sumudaerji, but it’s his wrestling that gives him the edge over the powerful southpaw from China.
Johnson is fully aware that his opponent desperately needs to keep this fight on the feet. Since entering the UFC, Sumudaerji has compiled a 3-3 record with all three losses coming via submission. It’s a clear weakness that cost him his last two fights, where he tapped out to triangle chokes in each.
It’s going to be very difficult for Sumudaerji to match Johnson’s output standing without leaving himself vulnerable to a takedown. Once the fight hits the mat, the odds shift even more dramatically in Johnson’s favor. That’s why taking +225 odds against a fighter who has been finished in all three of his losses. It doesn’t matter whether it’s ground and pound or club and sub, “Inner G” has the tools to put the money in our pocket.
Additional props to target:
- Under 2.5 rounds +180
- Charles Johnson to win by submission +350
PARLAY FOR UFC FIGHT NIGHT: HERNANDEZ VS. PEREIRA
- Charles Johnson ML
- Jean Matsumoto to win by decision
- Kyler Phillips to win by decision
- Payout: +376; DraftKings
We got back on the winning track by hitting last week’s parlay at +489. Let’s do it again.
We start off by double-dipping on Charles Johnson. Anchoring him in the parlay allows us to invest more in a fighter I’m high on without being completely reliant on him securing the finish. I paired the Johnson play with two of my favorite decision props.
Jean Matsumoto showcased his ability to overcome adversity in his debut. He will need that in what I expect to be a back-and-forth battle with Brad Katona. Matsumoto being more technical in most areas (particularly on the ground), makes him a solid bet to edge out a decision win.
We will lean on the biggest favorite on the card as our closer, Kyler Phillips. The 29-year-old MMA lab product is a -440 favorite over Rob Font. I love utilizing his decision prop at -135 to create more value. Even at 37, Font is as durable as they come. You have to go back to 2017 to find the last time he was stopped inside the distance. Phillips wrestling coupled with Font’s declining takedown defense, make this an attractive leg at advantageous odds (-135).
