The UFC returns to the Apex this Saturday to provide us with some action before next weekend’s big pay-per-view event in Manchester, England.
Two Brazilian strawweight contenders, Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba, are set to battle it out for five rounds in the main event. The 12-fight card features plenty of combatants capable of pressing the action, putting on exciting fights, and expanding the attack surface for our betting opportunities. I closed up the prop market for his week and focused on four money line bets, including a nice-sized underdog on the preliminary card. Let’s break down our UFC best bets - starting with my most confident play on the card in the main event.
BEST BET FOR LEMOS vs. JANDIROBA
Jandiroba ML (-130; BetMGM)
There are times when the “striker vs. grappler” label gets misused when there are other significant factors that could impact the fight. This is not one of them. Saturday’s main event is truly a binary fight that will be determined by Lemos’ ability to leverage her striking to avoid ending up on her back. There is no argument when it comes to the hands of Lemos - she packs fight-changing power. Lemos recently starched Marina Rodriguez, and has eight knockouts in fourteen career wins. But here’s why I’m willing to bet it’s not going to matter when she faces Jandiroba.
Jandiroba has that dawg in her when it comes to imposing her grappling. During her three-fight winning streak, she has accumulated over 25-minutes of control time. We also have recently seen Lemos succumb to an onslaught of takedown attempts (allowed 6 of 7) in her loss to strawweight champion, Zhang Weili. She was also controlled throughout most of the first round in her last fight against Mackenzie Dern.
In fights taking place at the lighter weight-classes, I side more with grapplers and their ability to absorb enough shots to get the fight on the mat. The women’s strawweight division historically has one of the lowest knockout rates (24%), and Janiroba’s grappling-heavy approach is more reliable considering both fighters are at an age where speed and reaction time decline.
Since joining the UFC, Jandiroba is a perfect 4-0 as the betting favorite and continues to show improvement from fight to fight. She isn’t the flashiest fighter, but you can keep the style points and just enjoy her cashing our bets.
MORE BEST BETS FOR UFC FIGHT NIGHT: LEMOS vs. JANDIROBA
Silva ML vs. Durden (+100, BetMGM)
If I could bet on which fight would win the “Fight of the Night” bonus, I would push my chips in on this flyweight banger. Bruno Silva is riding a three-fight winning streak where he has finished all three of his opponents. Cody Durden is the better offensive wrestler, but I expect both fighters to be able to land takedowns. Where Silva is going to excel in this matchup, is their ability to deliver damage and attack with submissions once he establishes dominant positions. All three of Durden’s UFC losses have come via submission.
In what is projected to be a highly competitive, back-and-forth fight, I’d much rather risk my money on the fighter that has plus advantages in more than one area. Durden’s path to victory will have to be carved through a decision win while Silva is the better fighter at chaining together sequences that lead to a finish. Even if he doesn’t end the fight early, the dangerous moments can be enough to swing rounds.
We are on the right side of the market as the plus money price tags on Silva seem to have evaporated, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him close as the betting favorite.
Algeo ML vs. Choi (-170; DraftKings)
It’s the uncomfortable bets that produce the most gratifying sweats. Grabbing a -170 favorite doesn’t typically fall into this category, but Algeo’s recent standing TKO loss to Kyle Nelson forced me to ensure I left no stone unturned before placing this wager. Doohoo Choi has the striking acumen to deliver him the same fate, but I see this as a good spot for Bill Algeo to get back on track.
Dare I say it - I am expecting a more disciplined version of “Señor Perfecto” after getting rocked multiple times on the feet in his last bout. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt spoke candidly about increasing his focus and preparing specifically for Choi throughout his camp. Algeo owns seven submission victories, and should easily exploit Choi’s ground game.
The market making Algeo the clear favorite illustrates the significance of his advantages in this matchup. Choi is coming off a 17-month layoff and allowed himself to be taken down five times in his last fight. That opens up a clear window for Algeo to attack Choi’s weaknesses, while neutering the power that makes his opponent so dangerous. Even on the feet, Algeo is the better volume striker (6.16 vs. 4.74 SLpM). His unpredictable combinations should make it that much easier to secure takedowns. Algeo by decision (+140) is a solid look in the prop market at plus odds, but I’m willing to bite down on my mouthpiece and lay the chalk on the moneyline. If the market is willing to forgive Algeo, I can get on board too.
Amil ML vs. Lee (+164; DraftKings)
If you want to see two fighters go at it for fifteen minutes while leaving everything in the Octagon - don’t miss this one. JeongYeong Lee has heavy hands paired with the benefit of a three-inch reach advantage. He is coming off a decision win over Blake Bilder where he quieted questions surrounding his ability to win in an extended fight. His stamina will get a much bigger test against “The Hurricane” Hyder Amil.
This fight plays out as power versus pace. When Amil fights, in his mind, there are no rounds or clocks. He activates attack mode the second the referee gives the signal, and relentlessly pushes forward as if every minute is his last. Amil’s the quintessential underdog who will never stop fighting for your money.
Despite coming off a decision win, a good chunk of Lee’s win equity is still front-loaded. Amil has the kicking arsenal to chop away at Lee early, and overwhelm his opponent with volume in the final two rounds. At +164, I will gladly take a shot on the 9-0 underdog holding edges in volume and cardio. The market has moved Amil in from a +220 underdog, and there is still plenty of meat on the bone.
