The UFC schedule keeps on rolling, as the promotion lands in St. Louis this Saturday ahead of our best bets for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento.

The 13-fight card features a heavyweight headliner and plenty of competitive fights for bettors to comb for value. I have four best bets for the event featuring some moneyline plays and a couple of live dogs. Let’s get right to the action starting with the main event.

Best Bets for Lewis vs. Nascimento

Lewis ML vs. Nascimento (-160; BetMGM)

Derrick Lewis’ fights are all meat and potatoes. You won’t find a secret sauce that’s going to help identify any type of tactical advantage in this fight against Nascimento. He carries a light toolbox consisting of a powerful right hand and a veteran's patience to identify the perfect timing to unleash it upon his prey. Once the cage door closes, “The Black Beast” will be hunting for another devastating knockout.

The binary aspect of Lewis’ fights makes the level of competition he faces even more important. That’s the primary reason I am all-in on “The Black Beast” in this spot. Nascimento hasn’t faced anyone of Lewis’ caliber during his three-fight win streak. This a big jump for him to be fighting in a main event against the UFC record-holder for most knockout wins in the heavyweight division.

On the other hand, Lewis has closed as the betting underdog in his last four fights. The dynamic of both fighters reversing roles in the betting market (Lewis to favorite, Nascimento to underdog) is a clear signal that this is a very favorable matchup for the fan-favorite Lewis.

Lewis showed enough improved defense against Jailton Almeida to ease any concerns about Nascimento turning this into a grappling match. In a battle between two heavyweights swinging until someone drops, I will take the proven Lewis to deliver one more time. 

More Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento

Hooper ML vs. Borshchev (+120; DraftKings)

Hooper’s early career played out like a case study on the dangers of rushing a young prospect through the ranks. After winning his debut on Dana White’s Contender Series at age 18, he struggled to find consistent success.

The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt has rebounded to reel off consecutive wins for the first time in his UFC career, but still hasn’t shown the technical advancements in his striking to round out his game. Against Borshchev, he will desperately need to find a way to get this fight to the mat.

Borshchev’s 36% takedown defense makes Hooper a live dog in this spot. It’s an interesting matchup considering Borshchev is both extremely dangerous to his biggest weakness, but also tailor-made to his greatest strength. Even though every fight starts on the feet, there is little reason to believe Borshchev can keep it there. He has lost three of his last four fights, and allowed 24 takedowns in those three defeats.

The bottom line is that both fighters have glaring deficiencies that can cost them the fight. I will bet the 24-year-old Hooper is more likely to show improvement, considering the 10-year age gap between the two fighters. At +120, I will bet he survives on his feet long enough to drag Borshchev into deep water on the ground. 

Pennington to win by decision vs. Ricci (+150; DraftKings)

We head over to the Women’s Strawweight division to target another live underdog. One of the biggest talking points leading up to this fight is Pennington’s return from a two-year layoff due to the birth of her child.

As a general rule of thumb, it’s important to approach lengthy layoffs with caution. However, I believe the market has slightly overreacted in what I see as a coinflip fight that’s highly probable to end by decision.

Getting +150 on Pennington to win by points is a solid way to bet this considering the odds are -360 (78% implied) for the fight to go the distance. And they are still climbing. When I analyze which fighter is more likely to be the better round winner, it’s clearly Pennington unless Ricci is landing takedowns at a high clip.

Ricci failed on all six of her takedown attempts in the last fight against Loopy Godinez.

Pennington’s volume and pace will show well for the judges. The last time we saw “The Tiny Tornado” in the Octagon, she looked impressive while dropping a decision to No.7-ranked Mackenzie Dern.

More importantly, Pennington has outlanded every one of her last four opponents by a significant margin, and is also the far more accurate striker. I see this one primarily playing out on the feet with Ricci getting outworked throughout three rounds.

Hardy ML vs. Aldrich (-142; DraftKings)

There is nothing better than getting a nice sweat on the very first bout. And yes, whenever you are betting on a woman’s MMA bout that’s likely to go to a decision  - it’s going to be a sweat.

The evolution of Veronica Hardy’s game has been fun to watch. After a 1-4 run from 2016-2020, Hardy took a three-year hiatus, only to return to a much improved fighter. She has reeled off two wins in 2023, and has a good test in J.J. Aldrich as she goes for her third straight. Even as the betting favorite, I still see Hardy as the value side in this bout.

Aldrich is a more technical boxer, but Hardy’s speed and footwork are going to be the difference. She does an excellent job of exploding in and out of the pocket, managing distance, and countering her opponents with kicks when impatience forces them to chase. She has also shown enough flashes of power to persuade me away from the prop market.

It’s a fight that’s headed to a decision, but I’m okay with laying a little bit of chalk with the moneyline to cover ourselves.