Action returns to the octagon this weekend, and Mark Drumheller is back with his best bets for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint-Denis:
The UFC resumes action this Saturday with an early start in Paris, France. Like most international events, the robust, 14-fight card is laced with some of France’s favorite hometown talent. In the main event, Benoit “God of War” Saint-Denis and Renato “Money” Moicano will leave it all in the Octagon to determine which lightweight can crack into the Top 10.
I have been working all week to ensure it leaves money in our pockets as well. I have targeted three fights for this week’s best bets, including a pair of props and a small underdog play. Since the UFC parlay has been white hot, it’s only right we keep the good vibes strong.
Best bet for Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint-Denis to win Inside the distance (-185; DraftKings)
Dana White likes to put on a show for the hometown crowd, and I’m betting that all the locals will go home happy. The matchup with Renato Moicano checks out as a prime opportunity for Benoit Saint-Denis to put a stamp on the evening with a big finish. The total is as low as 1.5 rounds (-148) on FanDuel, with the “fight to go the distance” prop carrying only a 20% implied probability (+400 on DraftKings).
Moicano’s lack of durability is the key factor driving those odds. Everyone remembers Moicano getting starched by Jailin Turner's left hook from hell at UFC 300. Turner, as well as myself, thought the fight was over. As much respect as I give Moicano for overcoming adversity, there will be no escape route against a grappler like Saint-Denis in a five-round fight.
Once the Frenchman gets you on your back, he has multiple tools in his arsenal to end the fight. He can punish you from top position, take your back and lock in a body triangle, and club his opponents into giving up their neck.
The most damning evidence against Moicano’s durability is that it only took Turner ten seconds to hurt him with a teep kick. Saint-Denis’ process typically involves utilizing hard body kicks to back his opponents against the cage, before going after a single leg.
I don’t see how Moicano can hold off Saint-Denis’ onslaught for 25 minutes. Moicano was finished in four of his five career losses while all 13 of Saint Denis’ wins have come inside the distance. I will see you at the window when Moicano becomes #14.
Additional props to target:
- Beniot Saint-Denis to win in Round 3 +750
- Beniot Saint-Denis to win in Round 4 +1200
Make sure you are getting the best price on all of your UFC Props for this weekend's Fight Night card with our UFC Prop Finder Tool!
More Bets for UFC Fight Night
Matt Frevola ML vs. Fares Ziam (+110; DraftKings)
Matt Frevola is coming off a knockout loss to headliner Benoit Saint-Denis. While it’s difficult to project any fighter’s response to such a brutal defeat, there are multiple factors that reassured me that we are on the correct side.
Frevola taking a full 10 months to recover is certainly a positive. This isn’t a situation where I’m concerned with a fighter coming back too soon after being knocked out. As we get into the fight dynamics, it’s ideal that he is facing an opponent that is not known for his power. Fares Ziam is a low-volume (2.7 SSpM) striker who will look to stay on the outside and use his five-inch reach advantage. Ziam has won three straight, but all five of his UFC wins have come by decision.
Frevola’s high motor and aggressiveness are going to put normally poised Ziam in fight-or-flight mode. “The Steamrolla” will be willing to walk through Ziam’s strikes in order to fire back a few hard hooks. Frevola owning both the power and wrestling advantages will make it an exhausting chore for Ziam to dictate the fight from distance. We saw Ziam crumble under pressure against Terrance McKinney, and Frevola has all the tools to win in similar fashion.
Prop to target:
- Matt Frevola to win by submission +700
- Fight to go to decision -120
Joanderson Brito to win Inside the Distance vs. William Gomis (+100; DraftKings)
Joanderson Brito is a savage. His explosive offense comes in waves, and his ability to pair it with his attacking brand of grappling has recently made him a must-watch. The Brazilian featherweight cashed for us as -166 favorite in his last bout with Jack Shore, when he butchered a deep hole in Shore’s leg to force a doctor’s stoppage. It’s not just Brito’s ability to inflict damage that makes him an attractive bet, it’s his finishing instincts once he smells blood.
Brito is on a five-fight heater, with all five wins coming inside the distance. In his last two fights, I love that the explosive striker proved his electrifying style can translate outside of the first round. That’s an important factor when evaluating his probability of finishing Gomis, who is going to do everything in his power to avoid exchanging with Brito at close range. I expect this to be an early game of cat and mouse, where Gomis looks to circle out and pick his spots before engaging.
Ultimately, Brito will cut off the cage and corral his prey. Despite being the taller fighter, Gomis is only working with a minimal reach advantage. Once Brito gets inside, he will win the striking exchanges rather cleanly. Gomis’ chin hasn’t been tested by this level of opponent, and willing to bet Brito has the power to put him to sleep.
UFC Fight Night Parlay (+599; DraftKings)
- Dariya Zheleznyakova ML
- Morgan Charriere to win by KO/TKO/DQ
- Nassourdine Imavov ML
There have been some memorable three-peats in sports history. Michael Jordan did it twice with the Chicago Bulls, while the Lakers and Yankees joined the club in the early 2000s.
After hitting our UFC parlay on consecutive cards--Why not us?
Let’s get a three-peat of our own.
Our first leg is likely the most difficult. I’d rather rip off the band-aid and take on the biggest challenge early in the card. I’m banking on Darya Zheleznyakova landing enough straight shots early to prevent Perez from locking up takedowns. She has the power to do it, and all we need is an early combination to set the tone. Perez will be a fish out of water if she is unable to get this to the ground early in the fight.
Morgan Charriere winning inside the distance checks out as my most confident play of the three. This is a massive mismatch in a fight that is not expected to go the distance. I was very impressed by Charriere’s split-decision loss to Jose “Chepe” Mariscal. I personally scored the fight in his favor, and the unfortunate decision should amp up the urgency for a finish here. Charriere certainly has the tools to put away the 35-year old Miranda. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him chop away at the front leg to erode Miranda’s chances of getting this fight to the mat.
We close the parlay with a matchup between middleweight title contenders, where I expect Nassourdine Imavov to outclass Brandan Allen on the feet. He is the more technical striker who should catch Allen over-extending on his punches. In a fight that should mostly play out on the feet, Imavov’s far superior footwork should be a major factor that allows him to mitigate Allen’s pressure by countering with solid combinations.
Make sure you are getting the best price on all of your UFC Props for this weekend's Fight Night card with our UFC Prop Finder Tool!
