The UFC returns after a banger last weekend, and Mark Drumheller is here with his best bets for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Albazi:
Coming off one of the most electric cards of the year, the UFC visits Edmonton, Alberta this Saturday for UFC Fight Night. No. 1 contender status is on the line in the flyweight division, where former champion Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi will do battle as headliners for the 14-fight card.
I, as well, am ready to do battle with the books. This week’s UFC best bets feature three moneyline bets and a strategic two-leg parlay. Let’s get right to the action!
BEST BET FOR BRANDON MORENO VS. AMIR ALBAZI
Amir Albazi ML (+145; DraftKings)
Brandon Moreno’s history with Deiveson Figueiredo, where the 125-pound belt switched hands three times, will forever go down as one of the most competitive rivalries in the division’s history. As much as I enjoyed watching Moreno come out on top, it appears there was a part of his game that never made it out.
In Moreno’s latest loss to Brandon Royval, the former champion looked the part of a fighter in the midst of a decline. Royval outworks most fighters he faces, but Moreno looked passive, slow, and unable to find his second gear the entire fight. There’s a possibility I’m jaded because I backed Moreno in the fight, but his declining output is a red flag that I refuse to look past.
Moreno has been taking money as the market views this as a valuable buy-low spot on the Mexican flyweight. I will stand on an island and back the aggressive grappler from Xtreme Couture.
Albazi is positionally sound both on the feet and on the mat. He throws his jab in multiples, allowing him to move forward, and counter with hard hooks from inside the pocket. Moreno struggled to keep pace with Royval. Albazi is very different stylistically, but he will come forward early to set up his takedowns. I expect those takedowns to come, and Albazi to deliver the most damage in the fight from top position.
This will be a passing of a torch, as Albazi’s activity will make him the better round-winner. Grab the plus-money.
Props to target:
- Over 4.5 rounds
- Amir Albazi by decision +225
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MORE BETS FOR UFC FIGHT NIGHT
Erin Blanchfield ML parlay (-130; DraftKings)
Blanchfield’s top game will be the difference against Rose Namajunas.
The holes in Blanchfield’s striking, in terms of effectiveness in closing distance, were exposed in her first UFC loss to No. 1 contender Manon Fiorot. It was a difficult loss for the 25-year-old, who has already been dubbed as a future champion.
I am comfortable betting that Blanchfield went back to the lab, and comes prepared with some technical improvements and a sounder strategy to initiate the grappling exchanges with Namajunas.
“Thug Rose” impressed me with her offensive wrestling against Tracy Cortez, but I don’t think she will be able to overpower Blanchfield with the same success. Blanchfield’s grappling credentials include a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, coupled with a lethal submission game that led to three finishes in five UFC wins.
Blanchfield is the buy-low spot bettors should be targeting.
Props to target:
- Erin Blanchfield by submission +450
- Rose Namajunas by decision +175
Jasmine Jasudavicius ML (-215; Fanduel)
It’s not every day I lay this wide of a money line price, but I am sold on the big favorite from Canada in this spot. This is a binary fight where Jasmine Jasudavicius will dictate where the fight takes place.
Jasudavicius has won four of her last five by grinding out her opponents with forward pressure and wrestling. She averages 2.39 takedowns per fifteen minutes and converted on 6 of 11 in her most recent two wins.
She faces Ariane Lipski, who last dropped a unanimous decision to Karine Siva, where she only successfully defended 1 of 6 takedown attempts. Jasudavicius can keep this competitive striking long enough to force Lipski into defending off her back.
Jasudavicius has won two straight, while Lipski is only 1-5 in UFC fights where her opponent lands a single takedown. The decision prop is a solid alternative if you don’t can’t stomach laying -215 on women’s MMA, but I also think a finish for Jasudacvicius is a more likely outcome than the market projects.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT PARLAY
- Youssef Zalal ML
- Mike Malott to win inside the distance
- Payout: +140; DraftKings
This week's parlay doesn’t pack the payout of previous ones, but it’s a solid bet to bring home some plus-money.
It’s clear the light switch flipped on before Youssef Zalal’s second tour with the UFC. After dismantling fan-favorite Billy Quarantillo in his return, he looked every bit of the -480 favorite when submitting Jarno Errens in just under four minutes. Rather than bet Zalal as a -258 favorite against Jack Shore, I’m leveraging him as half of our parlay.
The last time we saw Shore, Joanderson Brito literally kicked a hole in his leg, forcing the doctors to stop the fight. Zalal also has a menacing kicking game that will reveal how much Shore has cleaned up his defensive liabilities. Shore’s best attribute, his wrestling, hasn’t translated to his new weight class.
The way I see it, Zalal has Shore covered wherever the fight goes. His kickboxing should saw off Shore from initiating takedowns, lining him up to systematically break down the former bantamweight for our first leg.
Sometimes Dana White likes to give the hometown crowd something to cheer about. We will be cheering as well when Canada’s Mike Malott secures our second and final leg.
Playing Malott to win inside the distance is a strategic way to secure better odds. Giles is coming off getting slept by Carlos Prates for his second consecutive loss, and now faces another opponent with legit finishing instincts. All three of Malott’s wins have come inside the distance, while all six of Giles’ UFC losses ended in a stoppage.
There is a first for everything, but my money is on the crowd getting exactly what they came to see.
