The UFC is back in action after breaking for the fourth of the July weekend. This Saturday’s card takes place at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. How the fighters will deal with the altitude is rightfully one of the biggest talking points for the event, which features twelve total fights with six on the main card. Two-time, former women’s strawweight champion, Rose Namajunas takes on Tracy Cortez in the five-round main event. This card features plenty of competitive, closely lined fights where I was able to find solid value at very reasonable odds. I have four UFC Best Bets this week, including three money line plays. Let’s get right into the action.

Best Bet for Namajunas vs. Cortez

Cortez +5.5 over Namajunas (-135; DraftKings)

Saturday night’s main event in Denver presents the perfect opportunity to dive into the spread betting aspect of MMA. If you are unfamiliar, the spread is based on the total scorecards in the event the bout ends in a decision. By betting Cortez at +5.5, we win the bet if Cortez wins via stoppage or stays within five points of the total combined score of all three judges' scorecards. If Namajunas wins 48-47, 49-46, 48-47, the +5.5 points covers for Cortez.

My reasoning behind utilizing the spread bet method is based on a combination of Cortez’ advantages and Namajunas’ recent performances. Since moving up to the flyweight division, Namajunas has failed to impress. She was outclassed by Manon Fiorot and underwhelmed in a decision win over Amanda Ribas as a similarly sized favorite (-210). The power that accompanied her elite footwork hasn’t translated to her weight class, and that has morphed her into more of a point-fighter. When she is tasked to win rounds without being able to create big moments, or administer significant damage, it can leave many of the rounds up to interpretation. That’s what ultimately led to a wide array of opinions on her fight with Ribas.

Cortez is riding a 10-fight winning streak and hasn’t lost since her pro debut in 2017. The foundation of her game is her wrestling, but she has showcased significant improvement in her striking over her last few bouts. In her most recent win over Jasmine Jusudavicius, she only attempted one takedown while outlanding her opponent 63-43 on head shots alone. At 30 years old, she entered her prime where fighters tend to show rapid improvements from fight to fight.

Cortez’s wrestling is going to give Namajunas problems. She will land takedowns, and Rose could end up in some dangerous positions off her back. That dynamic alone is enough for Cortez to seal a round or two, which could be enough to cash this bet.

The key is that Namajunas’ has recently fought on very thin margins, and Cortez has improved to the point where I’m confident she can win one or more striking rounds. I would take the plunge with Cortez’ moneyline at +185 if she didn’t have to deal with the additional challenges of the altitude in her first five- round main event. I’d much rather pay the -135 to safeguard against a close decision loss. Cortez +5.5 is the bet.

More Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez

Salikhov ML vs. Ponzinibbio (+165; BetMGM)

There is only so much damage a fighter can take before his durability declines. After failing to survive the first round in his last bout, it’s fair to question whether Muslim Salikhov has anything left in the tank at age 40. Lucky for us, he gets a favorable opponent with similar concerns in Sergio Ponzinibbio. Both fighters are on the tail end of their careers and coming off bad knockout losses. They are also in the midst of similar skids where they each lost three of their last four fights.

In my eyes, we are much closer to “Spiderman meme" territory than Salikhov’s implied odds of 37%.

Ponzinibbio’s brawling style makes him difficult to trust as a favorite. Salikhov historically avoids damage well (2.94 SApM) and uses unorthodox kicks to keep his opponents off-balance. His ability to stay out of danger early will allow him to get in rhythm while exploiting his opponent’s lack of patience. There will be plenty of opportunities for Salikhov, an experienced counter-striker, to catch Ponzinibbio marching forward with his head on the centerline. I fully expect Salikhov to land the more clean, accurate shots throughout the fight.

The market is giving too much credit to Ponzinibbio’s knockout potential. His last five fights have all entered the third round. At +165 odds, Salikhov is a solid bet to survive the early onslaught, and take over the fight by picking apart Ponzinibbio on the feet.

Dober ML vs. Silva (-110, DraftKings)

Now for the people’s main event. This is elite matchmaking featuring two combatants that hit like a brick of dynamite. The legend of Drew Dober was built by taking out up-and-coming contenders like Terrance McKinney in epic, highly-entertaining, back-and-forth, slugfests. It comes as no surprise that five of his last six wins have earned Performance or Fight of the Night bonuses. Dober’s fights are a live-bettor's dream as the odds swing with the same recklessness that we see in his fighting style. One of his key differentiators is his ability to take your best shot, and his chin will unquestionably come into play in this one.

Jean Silva will turn your lights out. The Fighting Nerds featherweight handed Charles Jourdain his first knockout loss of his career two weeks ago at UFC 303. That part of his game makes him extremely dangerous, even against a fighter as tough to put out as Dober. However,  there are unique factors at play that pushed me quickly to the Dober side.

Whenever a fighter has a quick turnaround, it’s impossible for the market to shield itself from recency bias. Silva looked outstanding in his big win at UFC 303, but let’s not forget he missed weight by 2.5 lbs. The process of re-cutting, only two-weeks later, has to have an impact on his cardio. Silva’s gas tank has always been his biggest question mark. This is a fight where it believes it looms large.

Dober loves to drag his opponent into the deep end. Silva getting the best of Dober in that type of fight, at altitude in Denver, while fighting in a higher weight class, feels like a much more aggressive challenge than the odds reflect. Silva gets my respect for taking the fight on short notice, but he doesn’t get my money. Take Dober in what should be three rounds of fireworks.

Petroski ML vs. Fremd (-105; BetMGM)

This bet is a great example of how I like to pick my spots with certain fighters. Andre Petroski won his first five fights before being humbled by Michel Pereria as a +165 underdog. He followed it up with a bizarre knockout loss to Jakob Malkoun, that put him on the two-fight skid he will look to end this Saturday. Now, the Renzo Gracie Philly product gets a considerable downgrade in opponent with Josh Fremd, making him a nice buy-low candidate to get back to his winning ways.

Fremd’s low-output striking (2.93 significant strikes per minute), along with his inability to stop takedowns, will feed right into Petroski’s aggressive offensive wrestling. Petroski’s speed and power will keep Fremd on his backfoot, allowing the former wrestler easy entries to latch on to a leg before planting Fremd on his back. I expect Petroski to rack up a ton of control time while scoring big with damaging shots from top position.

Petroski’s losses aren’t as bad as they look on paper. Michel Pereira is one of the most polarizing fighters in the middleweight division, and he was competitive versus Malkoun before an awkward collision forced the stoppage. The odds have remained steady positioning this fight as a coin flip, creating value on Petroski carving out a victory with his wrestling.