The UFC returns it’s home base for the first time in a month this Saturday when the Apex hosts UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira. The five-round main event brings us an exciting flyweight matchup that could shake up the top of the rankings. There are thirteen total fights for us to hunt for betting value, including a six-fight main card. Let’s lock in with this week’s UFC best bets.
Best Bets for Perez vs. Taira
Perez ML (+160; DraftKings)
The most exciting part of watching a prospect move up the rankings is figuring out their ceiling. It’s also a great way to secure some value in the betting market when your projections ring true. Tatsuro Tiara is a perfect 15-0 with his last five wins coming in the UFC. Alex Perez stands as his greatest test to date, and I don’t believe the odds correctly reflect some of the challenges that await the undefeated flyweight.
Taira’s game is predicated on his ability to get his opponent to the mat. Once there, he uses his superior grappling to open up opportunities to attack his submissions.
Control is critical for his process. Taira spent over 60% of each fight in dominant control positions during his last two wins. Securing that level of control will be tough now that he is facing a Top-5 opponent, who’s foundation is his wrestling.
The stats back up Perez’s defensive wrestling. He has effectively stopped 82% of takedowns with a resume that includes former champion, Davieson Figuieredo, and current champion, Alexandre Pantoja. Taira’s striking isn’t at a level where I can safely assume he can get this fight to where he needs it in order to cover at a high clip.
The longer this fight lasts on the feet, the quicker this will turn into a learning experience for the 15-0 prospect. Perez showcased his improved striking in his last bout, a first-round knockout of Matheus Nicolau. It’s possible Perez refrains from going heavy on the calf-kicks to avoid being taken down, but he will still be able to find plenty of openings to exploit Taira’s habit of over-extending on his punches.
Taira’s chin is relatively untested due to the duration he spends in control positions and the level of competition he has faced. We’ll see if it holds up, but I am confident Perez is the side even if it goes the full five rounds.
More Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
Almeida ML vs. Cuamba (+164; DraftKings)
I’m going to buy-low on Lucas Almeida after getting starched in his last fight. The market tends to overreact when a fighter gets brutally finished, and the loss to Andre Fili was bad optically. Let’s take a deep breath, and remind ourselves that we are betting the number and not the fighter. In this case, I don’t think Almeida’s opponent, Timothy Cuamba, has done enough to warrant this level of respect.
Cuamba dropped his UFC debut after being called upon on short notice. He is the cleaner striker with the better cardio. It’s fair to favor him in an extended fight. However, his low output makes him an ideal opponent for the forward-marching Almeida.
Laying everything on the line has always been Almeida’s style. His approach should only get amplified considering he needs a win to remain on the roster. The 33-year old veteran will aggressively walk Cuamba down in the smaller cage, headhunting with hopes of turning this bout into a bar fight.
Almeida’s insistence on pressing the action will overwhelm the inexperienced Cuamba, and force him to fight reactively. Cuamba returns strikes with only 34% accuracy and has been out struck by a significant margin in both his debut loss and his Dana White Contender Series win over Mateo Vogel.
These are typically not the metrics you like to see from a -198 favorite. It’s possible neither of these fighters are UFC material, but I will take my chances with a value play on the underdog.
Almabayev to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-140; DraftKings)
Asu Almabayev will get whatever he wants in this matchup. The dominant grappler from Khazakhstan can certainly hold his own in the striking realm. He can mix up leg kicks with body work, and score damage in the clinch as well. The scary part is, that’s just the complementary pieces of his offensive skill set.
Almabayev’s ability to cut through Jose Johnson’s six-inch reach advantage and plant him on his back at will, is why he is a huge -600 favorite. Almabayev recorded nine takedowns in his last bout and only needed two before choking out Ode Osbourne in his UFC debut.
Johnson's inability to sprawl and stay on his feet has always been a weakness (36% career takedown defense), and will render him hopeless against a technical grappler of Almabaev’s level. With Johnson cutting down to flyweight, I find it much more improbable than the odds indicate that he has the cardio to hold Alambaev off and avoid a finish.
Knutsson ML over Polastri (-175; BetMGM)
The clashing styles of these two fighters has led to some market disagreement, which plays to our benefit. Josefine Knuttson moved to -240 favorite early in the week before money supporting the underdog pushed her back to the -175 range. Now that the movement has settled, it’s time to jump in by backing Knutsson.
Everyone has their own betting processes. I approach fights expected to go the distance a little differently. It’s less about who is the better overall fighter, and more about who has the better skill set to win individual rounds. That’s where Knuttson has the advantages. While Julia Polastri’s output (6.19 SLpM) is a problem for most fighters, Knuttson’s has the size, strength, and distance management to nullify her offense when she needs to.
Knutsson’s feints and her ability to threaten with kicks at multiple levels should keep Polastri off-balance. Once she has her opponent on the backfoot, she can press forward, tie her up against the cage, and make Polastri fight her in a phone booth. Knutsson also has decent takedowns that she can turn to in order to swing rounds in her favor.
I expect the undefeated Knutsson (7-0) to have consistent success picking apart Polastri standing. However, she doesn’t have to win a boxing match to win the fight. With a few different paths to control each round, backing Knuttson to get the win is one of my favorite plays on the card.
