The UFC keeps the action rolling as it returns to the Apex, as do our best bets for UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira.
Flyweight title implications are on the line in the main event, as the division’s No.1 contender, Brandon Royval, faces 16-0 Japanese superstar, Tatsuro Tairo.
The 13-fight card features seven preliminary fights and a six-fight main card. The smaller cage at the Apex brings a unique dynamic to handicapping the event. In 2024, unders are hitting at a higher rate by 9% compared to non-Apex events. We are back with a trio of best bets and three-fighter +489 parlay. Let’s take a big swing at the books!
BEST BET FOR BRANDON ROYVAL VS. TATSURO TAIRA
Tatsuro Taira to win inside the distance (+100; DraftKings)
When a fighter shows you who he is--you better believe him. Tatsuro Taira impressively aced his latest test against Alex Perez by finishing him in the second round. Now, the only question in my mind is when, not if, the 24-year-old will become Japan’s first UFC Champion.
In my UFC Futures article, I previewed why Taira is a solid bet to rule the division sooner rather than later. His path to earning a win over a Royval, along with a title shot, can not be overlooked. Royval’s takedown defense is at an alarming 40%. He was planted on his back 11 times over his past two fights, including eight by Pantoja. Taira is a slick grappler that can even take your back while standing. I do not see a scenario where Royval can keep him off him for five rounds.
We are getting an ascending 24-year-old against a 32-year-old Royval, who most likely has plateaued as a fighter. Royval being at a reach disadvantage will reduce his ability to rely on his length. This will allow Taira, the far more cleaner and accurate striker, to land his straight shots and uppercuts with frequency. It’s stunning to see the disparity in striking efficiency between the two fighters. Royval has always been a volume thrower, but Taira’s accuracy (65%) checks in at almost 30% higher than Royval (36%).
Two of Royval’s three UFC losses have come via stoppage. While they both came by the hands of championship-caliber fighters, I believe he is facing another one on Saturday night.
Additional props to target:
- Tatsuro Taira to win by submission +130
- Brandon Royval to win by decision +400
MORE BETS FOR UFC FIGHT NIGHT
Abdul Razak Alhassan to win by KO/TKO/DQ vs. Josh Fremd (+100; FanDuel)
It can be difficult to quantify a fighter’s power advantage, but you have to lock in when they are facing an opponent that has been recently starched.
Josh Fremd has dropped his last two fights and has closed as the betting underdog in three of his last four. One of those losses came via knockout when Roman Kopylov finished him off with a liver punch after battering him into a bloody mess.
Fremd’s best chance is to survive on the outside with leg kicks. The problem with that approach against a far superior athlete is that Fremd isn’t busy enough (2.52 SLpM) to truly dictate the pace. The smaller cage will only enhance his opponent’s ability to close the distance.
Razak Alhassan has 12 career wins--all by knockout. He is receiving market support as the betting favorite, strengthening my confidence in his path to victory. This a great spot to get off the chalk to play a sizable favorite at even money.
Additional Props to target:
- Abdul Razak Alhassan to win in Round 2 +500
- Under 1.5 rounds +108
Themba Gorimbo to win by decision vs. Niko Price (+165; DraftKings)
I love watching Niko Price fight, but I love betting against him even more. Don’t let recency bias steer you down the wrong road. Price’s win over Alex Morono was only his second in his last seven bouts (2-4-1). He was recently knocked out by Robbie Lawler and Phil Rowe.
There is a reason Themba Gorimbo is one of the biggest favorites on the card--he holds advantages everywhere.
Gorimbo is the faster, more explosive fighter, who can win outside with his kicks, or deliver damage up close in the clinch. “The Answer” is riding a 3-0 streak where he continues to improve each time in the cage. In his last bout, he outstruck his opponent 43-3 while amassing 10:13 of control time. Price will force the action, and his willingness to die on his shield should provide plenty of entertainment value. But, make no mistake, Gorimbo should wash him from the opening bell.
I haven’t seen enough from Gorimbo, in terms of his ability to set up and secure finishes, to feel confident he stops a veteran like Price. With the inside the distance prop being lined close to even money, the better value lies with Gorimbo to win this one on the scorecards.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT PARLAY
- Cody Haddon ML
- Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini Under 2.5 rounds
- Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono Over 2.5 rounds
- Payout: +489; DraftKings
Australian bantamweight Cody Haddon is fresh off of a strong performance on Dana White’s Contender Series where he submitted Billy Brand. His well-rounded skill set should be enough to notch a victory in his UFC debut. His opponent, Dan Argueta, will look to spam takedowns, but Haddon’s takedown defense, scrambles, and overall game will force Argueta to fight him standing.
We are focusing on two totals that I believe are slightly mispriced for our final two legs. The Pearce-Sabatini bout looks like it could be a three-rounds of grappling on the surface, but I am willing to bet Sabatini’s chin or Pearce’s submission defense fails them before the final bell.
Lastly, are we sure 37-year-old Daniel Rodriguez and 34-year Alex Morono have enough left in the tank to win this fight by finish? Morono’s last three fights went the distance, while Rodriguez is coming off a decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum. Oh, and D-Rod’s last two wins have also come by decision. This one screams over 2.5 rounds.
