Week 2 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Vikings at Eagles.
Week 1 is officially in the books, and it’s safe to say there were a few surprises. That includes the two teams that will take the field on Thursday Night Football.
The Vikings were expected to breeze past the Buccaneers, but they ultimately suffered a three-point home loss. The Eagles managed to pick up a win vs. the Patriots, but their offense didn’t look like nearly the same well-oiled machine that it was last season.
Which of these teams will bounce back on Thursday? Let’s dive into all the betting angles for this matchup.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -6.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 49.0
- Moneylines: Vikings +220/Eagles -275
From an injury perspective, there are a few things to keep an eye on heading into this matchup. Vikings center Garrett Bradbury exited the team’s Week 1 matchup after just seven snaps, and he’s been estimated as a DNP to start the week.
Bradbury earned the top Pro Football Focus grade of his career in 2022, ranking as the 10th-best center in football. His replacement Austin Schlottman represents a clear downgrade, which wouldn’t be great against Fletcher Cox and Jalen Carter.
On the other side, the Eagles are dealing with a couple of absences in their secondary. James Bradberry and Reid Blankenship have both been estimated as DNPs to start the week, and missing pieces of your secondary against Justin Jefferson is a recipe for disaster. Additionally, Kenneth Gainwell has been missing from practice after dominating the Eagles’ backfield touches in Week 1.
None of these injuries would be a true game-changer, but they could impact the spread by a point or so in either direction.
Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) stiff arms Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis III (24) in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Speaking of the spread, this number has clearly moved in the Vikings’ favor. The Eagles were favored by a full touchdown at opening, but they’re down to 6.5 on BetMGM. That number has even gotten to six at other locations, thanks largely to some big bets on Minnesota. They’ve racked up 64% of the spread dollars on just 38% of the bets (via the Action Network), so the significant wagers have sided with the underdogs.
Minnesota was a clear regression candidate in 2023 after a fluky 2022 season. They were roughly a .500 team disguised as a 13-win unit, thanks largely to an unsustainable 11-0 record in one-score games. The Vikings were never going to be able to duplicate that success, so they were going to win fewer games just by default.
We saw the regression hit immediately in Week 1, when they lost a game vs. the Buccaneers that they probably should’ve won. They were the better team, out-gaining the Bucs by 127 yards, but they were done in by three turnovers.
The Eagles were never really in trouble against the Patriots—their win probability was above 60% for most of the game—but their offense never really got going. They finished Week 1 24th in total yardage after ranking third in yards in 2022.
The good news is that this is a perfect matchup for their offense to bounce back. They match up well with the Vikings, evidenced by their 24-7 win in this spot last season. They racked up 486 yards of total offense while limiting the Vikings to 264 yards, and they have the cornerbacks to slow down Jefferson.
Thursday Night Football also tends to give the better team the advantage. It’s a short week for both squads, so it’s less about preparation and more about who is better on the field. Favorites have gone 121-99-4 ATS on Thursday night since 2005 when both teams played on the previous Sunday.
I was initially leaning toward the Vikings in this matchup—you can read my thoughts in the Game Hub—but with the line creeping under seven, I think this is a solid opportunity to buy low on Philly.
Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets
Our resident projections expert Matthew Freedman has a couple of player props loaded into the Bet Tracker for Vikings-Eagles. Both are centered around taking an under on the quarterbacks.
For Jalen Hurts, Freedman is looking at the under on 22.5 completions. We have him projected for closer to 19 completions, so that’s a solid bit of value. Hurts completed just 22 passes in Week 1 vs. the Patriots, and his rushing ability makes him capable of taking over games without leaning heavily on his arm.
Sep 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs the ball against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
For Kirk Cousins, Freedman sees some value in under 38.5 passing attempts. Cousins did put up 44 attempts in Week 1, but that number is a bit of an outlier. Even in one of the most pass-heavy attacks in football, Cousins averaged 37.8 attempts per game in 2022. That number is due for some regression moving forward.
Personally, I like the over on 49.5 receiving yards from T.J. Hockenson. I backed the over on his receptions prop last week, and he did not disappoint with eight catches on nine targets. He wasn’t particularly efficient with those grabs, finishing with just 35 yards, but Hockenson’s target volume has been absolutely elite for the position since joining Minnesota.
Hockenson has the potential to be very busy in this matchup. The Eagles possess an elite group of cornerbacks, so opposing teams tend to target their other players in coverage. That means tight ends get a boost in volume when facing the Eagles.
Last year, the Vikings leaned heavily on Irv Smith Jr. in this matchup, who finished with a season-high eight targets. Hockenson is much more involved in the offense than Smith ever was, so he could easily be looking at double-digit targets in this spot.
We saw the Patriots' tight ends absolutely destroy the Eagles on Sunday, with Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki combining for eight catches, 92 yards, and a touchdown. I think Hockenson has the upside for that type of performance.
Same-Game Parlay
We just narrowly missed on our four-leg SGP for the first game of the year.
We nailed three of the four legs, with our only miss being an anytime touchdown for Jahmyr Gibbs. It certainly looked like Gibbs was going to score on a red zone carry before getting tackled by the turf monster, so we were sooooooo close. Sheesh indeed!
My favorite part about SGPs is that they allow you to craft a narrative. If you’re doing them properly, they should be correlated wagers, where one leg hitting increases the chances of the other legs hitting as well.
Since I like the Eagles this week, my narrative is going to be that this is a comfortable win for Philadelphia.
What does that sort of game script look like?
It obviously starts with taking the Eagles on the spread. It also jives with Freedman’s under on Hurts, since an Eagles lead likely means fewer passing attempts.
I’m going to pair that with the over on Hurts’s rushing prop, since the Eagles are going to need to move the ball on the ground if they’re not doing it through the air.
A comfortable Eagles win also likely leads to lots of passing for the Vikings, so it’s a good fit for my Hockenson stance as well.
Add it all up, and it looks something like this:
I think that’s a pretty logical SGP based on how I see this game going, and +650 is enough upside to satisfy me. Anything more than five legs and your SGPs are starting to feel more like playing the lottery than handicapping.
You can tail this SGP on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up for a new account below to claim your First Bet Offer!
Let’s get off to a strong start in Week 2. Good luck this week!
