Before we get into my NFL Week 5 bets, let's look at last week.
It couldn't have been any more of a breakeven week.
- Cowboys -5.5 at Giants: Lost by the hook and a missed Brandon Aubrey FG
- Colts +114 vs. Steelers: Probably my best call of the week
- Raiders -104 vs. Browns: Not gonna lie … got lucky
- Dolphins -104 vs. Titans: Not even close to getting lucky
In summary, I was 2-2 (+0.0 units), which brings me to 8-9 (-1.5 units) for the year, and I'm OK with that considering how poorly I performed in Week 2.
If you had made these bets at the lines where I first got them and logged them in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker—before I wrote my Week 4 article—then you would've made an extra cent (+0.01 units).
In the short term, that's nothing. In the long run, pennies matter—and that's why you should regularly check out our bets in the tracker, where we place the bets we're making right as we make them, when they're likely to provide the most value.
And if you're a more serious sports speculator, I suggest you get a FantasyLife+ subscription, which provides access to my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest), as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and NFL player projections.
You can get 10% off with the promo code FREEDMAN.
Of course, not everyone is looking to spend money, and that's cool. If that's you, check out the bet tracker, our free daily Betting Life Newsletter, and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Alright … let's get into Week 5.
Here's a reminder of what you're getting in this piece.
- Brief notes on my favorite bets.
- Briefer notes on other games that have my attention.
- The five teams I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
- The 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).
Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
Week 5 Sides and Totals to Target - Best Bets
Here are my favorite bets currently available.
- Vikings-Jets Under 40.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Patriots-Dolphins Under 35.5 (-110, DraftKings)
- Colts +3 at Jaguars (-115, BetMGM)
- Broncos-Raiders Under 36.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Odds and projections as of Wed. 10/2 at 6:30 am ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.
Vikings-Jets Under 40.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Under second-year DC Brian Flores, the Vikings are No. 1 in defensive EPA (-0.189, per RBs Don't Matter). Their swarming defense absolutely looks like one of the top units in the league.
And since 2022 the Jets are No. 2 in defensive EPA (-0.080) under defensive HC Robert Saleh.
Even with QB Sam Darnold taking on his former team in a #RevengeGame and currently looking like the best possible version of himself (league-high 9.6 AY/A), and even with the Jets finally having QB Aaron Rodgers on the field, I expect a tighter, slower, lower-scoring game.
Since 2007 (when the NFL started the International Series), the London/European unders are 22-17 (10.0% ROI).
- Bet in Tracker: Under 41.5 (-110, DraftKings)
- Projection: 39.2
Patriots-Dolphins Under 35.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Who is scoring points in this divisional matchup?
These are literally the two lowest-scoring teams in the league.
- Patriots (No. 31): 13.0 points per game
- Dolphins (No. 3): 11.3 points per game
For the Patriots, QB Jacoby Brissett is a bridge-caliber placeholder.
For the Dolphins, QBs Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle have "led" the team to 15 points in two games in the absence of starting QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion, IR).
Neither team has managed more than 20 points in any contest this year.
I pity the people who watch this game.
- Bet in Tracker: Under 36.5 (-108, DraftKings)
- Projection: 33.7
Colts +3 at Jaguars (-115, BetMGM)
Optimist that I am, I bet the Colts ML earlier in the week when I felt it offered more value than the consensus +2.5 in the market, but now that +3 is widely available I prefer that as a best bet.
With a point differential of -49, the Jaguars easily look like one of the league's worst teams—and that's exactly what their 0-4 record indicates.
This has been a good year so far for underdogs, who are 35-27-2 ATS (8.1% ROI) and 26-38 ML (15.6% ROI), and the Colts as such are 2-0 ATS (93.7% ROI) and 1-1 ML (12.0% ROI).
Given that QB Anthony Richardson (oblique, abdominal) exited last week, attempted to return, and then was removed again after one play and quickly ruled out, I tentatively expect backup Joe Flacco to start for the Colts this week, and I have him valued at +1.7 points more to the spread than Richardson (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Table).
- Bet in Tracker: +134 (FanDuel)
- Projection: +0.75 | +112.9 ML
Broncos-Raiders Under 36.5 (-110, BetMGM)
With second-year DC Vance Joseph and shutdown shadow CB Pat Surtain, the Broncos are No. 3 in defensive EPA (-0.174) and points allowed per game (13.8). They have a legitimately top-tier defense that has allowed more than 13 points just once this year.
And that's good for them, because with rookie QB Bo Nix they're bottom-five in offensive EPA (-0.176, No. 29) and points scored per game (15.5, No. 28).
Broncos unders are 3-1 (43.6% ROI), and Broncos games on average have fallen short of the total by a league-worst margin of -10.5 points.
When you consider that they're facing a divisional rival with a defensive HC (Antonio Pierce) and without its No. 1 WR (Davante Adams), the under just screams to be bet.
- Bet in Tracker: Under 37 (-110, BetMGM)
- Projection: 34.3
Week 5 Games That Have My Attention for Betting
Browns +3.5 at Commanders (-115, BetMGM): The Browns offense can't be this bad, and the Commanders defense can't be as good as it was last week, right? Also, over 44.5 (-110, BetMGM) is intriguing.
Rams +3.5 vs. Packers (-115, ESPN Bet): It's called the hook for a reason. I'm painfully aware that Packers HC Matt LaFleur is 4-0 ATS (92.3% ROI) against Rams HC Sean McVay … his former coworker and then boss.
Cowboys +2.5 at Steelers (-110, Caesars): This is a teaser leg in need of a partner. The Cowboys will probably be without EDGEs Micah Parsons (ankle) and DeMarcus Lawrence (foot), but I doubt the Steelers offense is potent enough to capitalize on their absence.
Chiefs -4.5 vs. Saints (-110, ESPN Bet): This number was -6.5 on the lookahead. I know that the Chiefs lost WR Rashee Rice (knee) this past week … but they won, the Saints lost, and Rice is not worth two points to the spread.
Contest Picks for NFL Week 5
Various sportsbooks (such as Circa, SuperBook, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.
Last season I placed No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place in the micro $5 DraftKings contest. This year I've entered the mini $50 contest.
I went 3-2 in each of Weeks 1-3 but 2-3 last week to amass an 11-9 record. That has me at No. 827 of 3,637 entries. Not terrible, but also not in the money. Gotta get better.
If I had to pick my five teams right now for Week 5, these might be the ones (based on the contests, consensus, and sharp lines, my spread projections, and my sense for which teams will be popular).
- Browns +3.5 at Commanders: Consensus +3
- Jaguars -2.5 vs. Colts: Consensus +3
- Rams +3.5 vs. Packers: Consensus +3
- Vikings -2.5 vs. Jets (London): Juiced -2.5
- Broncos -2.5 vs. Raiders: Juiced -2.5 | Partial Market -3
I'm sure my opinions on some of these games will change as the week progresses and lines move.
Survivor Picks for NFL Week 5
I did not survive the Week 3 carnage. Embarrassing.
Anyway, if I were still in the Circa Survivor contest, here are the teams I'd think about for Week 5.
- 49ers (-7.5) vs. Cardinals: The 49ers might never be favored by more than -7.5 again, and they're the week's biggest favorite. I expect them to be the deserved chalk.
- Bears (-3.5) vs. Panthers: Picking against the Panthers has worked out well this year (for the most part), and they're one of the few teams favored above a field goal.
- Seahawks (-6) vs. Giants: Sure … but anyone still alive in Survivor might've already picked the Seahawks in Weeks 1 or 3.
- Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Saints: Tempting, but gotta save them for Christmas.
Abbreviations for Best Bets Articles
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Points Per Game (PPG)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
Previous Best Bets Pieces
My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.
