Before we get into my best bets for Week 8, let's look at last week.
Overall, Week 7 was close but no cigar.
- Packers -2.5 vs. Texans: Lost by the hook.
- Lions +115 at Vikings: Great bet.
- Commanders-Panthers Over 51.5: Impacted by early injury to QB Jayden Daniels.
- Chiefs +105 at 49ers: Best bet ever.
In summary, I was 2-2 (-0.1 units) … but it felt like it easily could've been a 4-0 week.
For the year, that brings me to 14-15-1 (-1.95) on my featured best bets. I'm OK with that considering how poorly I performed in Week 2.
That said, if this year you had tailed all my best bets at the lines where I first got them and logged them in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker—before I wrote my weekly articles—then your record would be 15-14-1 (+0.43 units).
And in our bet tracker I'm having a profitable season when it comes to spreads, totals, and moneylines.
- Spreads: 27-22 (+2.29)
- Totals: 14-15 (-2.44)
- MLs: 9-6 (+2.55)
Props are another matter—but let's ignore that for now. I can tolerate only so much pain at the present.
The point is this: You should regularly check out our bets in the tracker, where we place the bets we're making right as we make them, when they're likely to provide the most value.
And if you're a more serious sports speculator, I suggest you get a FantasyLife+ subscription, which provides access to my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest), as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and NFL player projections.
You can get 10% off with the promo code FREEDMAN.
Of course, not everyone is looking to spend money, and that's cool. If that's you, check out the bet tracker, our free daily Betting Life Newsletter, and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Alright … let's get into Week 8.
Here's a reminder of what you're getting in this piece.
- Brief notes on my favorite bets.
- Briefer notes on other games that have my attention.
- The five teams I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
- The 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).
Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
Freedman’s Best Bets For Week 8
Here are my favorite bets currently available.
- Colts +225 at Texans (BetMGM)
- Chargers -7 vs. Saints (-115, DraftKings)
- Broncos -8.5 vs. Panthers (-115, FanDuel)
- Steelers-Giants Under 36.5 (-110, Caesars)
Odds and projections as of Wed. 10/23 at 8 am ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.
Colts +225 at Texans (BetMGM)
At +225, the Colts have a 30.8% implied probability of winning this game (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), but I think the true odds are almost 37%.
Hence, I'm betting Colts ML.
The Colts almost beat the division rival Texans in Week 1, when they opened the fourth quarter trailing 15-13, hit the midpoint of the final frame trailing 22-20, and finished the game trailing 29-27. They were competitive in that contest.
Granted, that game was in Indianapolis and this one's in Houston, but it's not as if the Texans have a strong home-field advantage (HFA). Over the past three- and five-year windows, they've had a below-average edge at NRG Stadium (per NFElo).
- Last 3 Years: Texans HFA, -0.33 | League HFA, +2.40
- Last 5 Years: Texans HFA, +0.70 | League HFA, +1.47
On top of that, HFA is cut almost in half in divisional games, and it's winnowed even more if the visitor is playing on a surface similar to the one in its home stadium. In this case, not only are the Colts in the AFC South with the Texans, and not only do they both play on artificial turf—but they both use the same turf brand (Hellas Matrix).
In this spot, HFA for the Texans is about as small as it can get.
On top of that, the Texans have the injury disadvantage in this game, especially on defense, where they could be without four starters in their back seven: LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To'oTo'o (concussion), CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder), and SS Jimmie Ward (groin), none of whom practiced or played last week.
Finally, if chaos strikes in the form of a meaningful in-game injury, it's likelier to benefit the Colts. For example, if QB Anthony Richardson suffers an injury … the Colts might actually improve with backup Joe Flacco, who is worth +1.6 points ATS relative to Richardson (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart). But if QB C.J. Stroud were to suffer an injury in the contest, that would almost certainly be a negative development for the Texans.
Bottom line: The Texans are likely to win and should be favored—but they shouldn't be favored to this degree.
- Bet in Tracker: +225 (BetMGM)
- Projection: +172.8
Chargers -7 vs. Saints (-115, DraftKings)
I was fortunate to jump on this bet last week in the lookahead market before the Saints suffered an embarrassing 33-10 defeat to move this line toward the Chargers.
Still, I like the Chargers at the current key number, especially since they're -7.5 at many books.
Situationally, the Chargers are in a bit of a widowmaker's spot with a rare four-day rest-and-prep disadvantage, given that they're coming off Monday Night Football and the Saints played on Thursday Night Football. Still, that's why the Chargers aren't even bigger favorites, and the rest deficit is mitigated by the fact that the Saints are traveling two time zones and playing in a game that kicks off three hours later than is typical for them.
And the Saints are decimated at key positions. I doubt QB Derek Carr (oblique) will be ready for Week 8, and backup QB Spencer Rattler (hip) is also not 100% healthy. No. 1 WR Chris Olave (concussion) is not certain to clear the protocol, No. 2 WR Rashid Shaheed (knee, IR) is out, and joker TE Taysom Hill (ribs) hasn't played since Week 4. No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) exited last week early, and No. 2 CB Paulson Adebo (leg, IR) is out.
In their current condition, the Saints aren't really the Saints.
On top of that, HC Dennis Allen for his career is 10-21-1 ATS (-37.1% ROI) against teams that are at least .500.
Right now, the Saints look like a team to bet against.
- Bet in Tracker: -5 (-110, Lookahead)
- Projection: -8.25
Broncos -8.5 vs. Panthers (-115, FanDuel)
As I note in my Week 8 Freedman's Favorites (QB Edition), this is situationally a great spot for the Broncos, who have a three-day rest-and-prep advantage coming off Thursday Night Football and are at home, where they have a true edge thanks to the elevation.
And the Broncos should be relatively healthy. I expect them to get back No. 1 CB Pat Surtain (concussion), who unlocks their defense, which ranks No. 2 in EPA (-0.161, per RBs Don't Matter).
Compare that to the Panthers, who are No. 31 in defensive EPA (0.161). On top of that, they're injured.
This week, they will definitely be without key players at all three levels in DT Derrick Brown (knee, IR), LB Shaq Green-Thompson (Achilles, IR), and FS Jordan Fuller (hamstring, IR), and they might also be without their top pass rusher in EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (shoulder), top remaining interior lineman in DT A'Shawn Robinson, and top remaining midfield defender in LB Josey Jewell (hamstring), all of whom missed Week 7.
This year, the Panthers have been the league's most profitable teams to bet against: Their opponents are 6-1 ATS (62.7% ROI, per Action Network).
This is a lot of points to lay with rookie QB Bo Nix, but he has been significantly better as of late.
In his first month, Nix passed for only 165 yards per game with a 3.6 AY/A and just 1 TD to 4 INTs. But since then he has averaged 195.3 passing yards with a 7.2 AY/A and 4 passing TDs to only 1 INT, to which he has added 24-145-1 rushing.
With HC Sean Payton, Nix now might be good enough to cover a spread this large—and the Panthers have proven this season that they have trouble covering a spread of any size.
- Bet in Tracker: -4 (-110, Lookahead)
- Projection: -10.5
Steelers-Giants Under 36.5 (-110, Caesars)
In their first game without LT Andrew Thomas (foot, IR), the Giants last week allowed eight sacks and scored just three points.
I expect them to struggle once again to get anything going on offense against a defensive line featuring EDGEs T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith and DT Cameron Heyward.
And once the Steelers (-6.5 favorites) get a lead, I expect them to rely on the ground attack to control the ball and run the clock, given that they rank No. 2 in rush rate (53.2%).
With the Giants incapable and Steelers unmotivated, the under looks like an enticing bet—and the Giants have been the league's most profitable under team this year (6-1, 64.8% ROI).
- Bet in Tracker: -37.5 (-110, Lookahead)
- Projection: 34.9
Week 8 Games That Have My Attention
Dolphins +3 vs. Cardinals (-115, DraftKings): I expect QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) to return.
Patriots +7 vs. Jets (-105, Caesars): The Jets could be without four starters and a top backup in their secondary.
Seahawks +3.5 vs. Bills (-115, BetMGM): The Bills could be vulnerable in run defense if LBs Terrel Bernard (ankle) and Dorian Williams (knee) are both out.
Bengals -2.5 vs. Eagles (-115, FanDuel): The Eagles are 5-9 ATS (-30.6% ROI) as underdogs with HC Nick Sirianni.
Freedman’s Week 8 Contest Picks
Various sportsbooks (such as Circa, SuperBook, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.
Last season I placed No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place in the micro $5 DraftKings contest. This year I've entered the mini $50 contest.
Right now I'm 17-13, and I used Week 6 as my mandatory bye week because of log-in issues. I'm now No. 944 of 3,637 entries. As long as I can stack 3-2 weeks on top of each other and then pop a 5-0 or 4-1 performance at some point, I'll have a decent chance of finishing in the money.
If I had to pick my five teams right now for Week 8, these might be the ones (based on the contests, consensus, and sharp lines, my spread projections, and my sense for which teams will be popular).
- Vikings -2.5 at Rams: Consensus -3
- Colts +5.5 at Texans: +4.5 at Circa
- Jets -6.5 at Patriots: -7.5 at Circa
- Seahawks +3.5 vs. Bills: Consensus +3
- Chiefs -9.5 at Raiders: -10 at Circa
I'm sure my opinions on some of these games will change as the week progresses and lines move.
Week 8 NFL Survivor Picks
I did not survive the Week 3 carnage. Embarrassing.
Anyway, if I were still in the Circa Survivor contest, here are the teams I'd think about for Week 8, under the assumption that in Weeks 1-7 I used the Seahawks, Chargers, Jets, Bengals, Bears, Eagles, and Commanders.
- Broncos -9 vs. Panthers: The Broncos might not be favored by this many points again, they're at home with a three-day rest-and-prep advantage, and it's hard to go wrong picking against the Panthers.
- Lions -11 vs. Titans: Tempting, but I might need/want to save the Lions for the Thanksgiving slate.
- Ravens -8 at Browns: I probably want to avoid a divisional matchup against a new starting QB. Too much uncertainty, and I might need/want to save the Ravens for the Christmas slate.
- Chiefs -10 at Raiders: Like the Ravens, the Chiefs should probably be saved for Christmas—and I'd like to avoid a divisional road matchup if possible.
- Steelers -6.5 vs. Giants: This is intriguing. The Steelers are at home, and they're almost certain not to be favored by this many points again.
Abbreviations
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Points Per Game (PPG)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
Previous Best Bets Pieces
My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.
