Best Bets for Wild Card Weekend: Jayden Daniels, Jordan Love, and More
Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca share their favorite bets from every game as we head into NFL Wild Card Weekend.
Welcome to one of the best football weekends of the year. For my money, the Wild Card round—or as it’s now known, Super Wild Card Weekend—is the second-best round of the NFL playoffs. Only the divisional round is better. It’s two fewer games, but the quality of the teams involved is significantly higher.
We’ll have six games to choose from this weekend: two games on Saturday, three on Sunday, and one on Monday night. All six are standalone contests, so it’s the perfect weekend to veg out in front of the TV and bet on some football.
Now, all we have to do is figure out who we want to bet on. I’m going to do my best to break down all six contests, while Geoff Ulrich will add some of his favorite prop bets. Let’s dive in.
Chargers (-3.0) at Texans—42.5 total
The first game of the week is one of my favorites from a betting perspective. It’s also one of the few games where we’ve seen some early sharp activity. The pros have some interest in the Texans now that they’re catching a full field goal at home.
Houston has been a pretty massive disappointment this season, but what have the Chargers done to deserve this respect? They have just two wins against playoff teams this season, both of which came against the equally uninspiring Broncos. They went just 2-5 against playoff opponents overall, and four of those losses came by at least a touchdown.
C.J. Stroud got his first taste of playoff action last year, and he was extremely impressive. Justin Herbert has actually played in fewer playoff games than Stroud, and his lone performance was a massive collapse against the Jaguars. The Chargers led that game 27-0 before ultimately suffering a 31-30 defeat.
The Chargers could also be without Rashawn Slater on their offensive line, which could make a difference against a Texans squad that ranks tied for fourth in sacks per game.
Bet: Texans +3.0 (-115)
Prop: John Metchie Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
- Projection 26.0 yards
I think there is a lot of fear of Diontae Johnson baked into this line, which is very short considering John Metchie has been operating as the No. 2 WR (or 2B) in this offense since Tank Dell got hurt. Metchie has posted target shares of 15% or greater in each of his last three games and posted 48 yards and 24 yards in his last two starts.
Now that his total is under 20 yards and the Texans are facing a pass-funnel defense in the Chargers, I don’t see any reason not to be bullish on Metchie outperforming this line in the first playoff game.
Steelers at Ravens (-10.0)—43.5 total
The line movement in this game happened very quickly. The books opened with the Ravens as 8.5-point home favorites, but the sharps quickly pushed it out to -9.5. Since then, the line has hovered between 9.5 and 10.0, and it’s currently listed at 10 across most of the industry.
These two teams (and coaching staffs) are very familiar with each other. Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh have squared off countless times in the past, including two previous matchups earlier this year. The Steelers managed to squeak out a win when these squads met in Pittsburgh, but the Ravens dominated when they met in Baltimore.
Dec 25, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) runs after a catch as Kansas City Chiefs safety Justin Reid (20) defends during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
That win by the Ravens is a big reason why they ended up winning the AFC North and will get to host the rubber match. Tomlin is known for being an elite underdog coach, but that hasn’t translated to the postseason. He’s one of the best in the business at getting his team up for a game, but motivation is rarely a question in the playoffs. Tomlin is just 2-4-1 ATS as a dog during the postseason, well below his 63-34-3 mark during the regular season.
The Steelers have also come crashing back to reality a bit of late. They’ve lost four straight games, and they’ve had less than 200 yards of total offense in two of them. That includes last week’s game vs. the Bengals, who have been unable to stop anyone basically all year. That’s a big red flag heading into a matchup with one of the best teams in football.
There’s still a Ravens -9.5 (-115) available on FanDuel, and that’s my preferred way to attack this contest.
Bet: Ravens -9.5 (-115)
Prop: George Pickens Over 3.5 receptions (-125; bet365)
- Projection: 4.2 receptions
George Pickens had arguably the worst game of his career in the season finale vs. the Bengals. He had multiple drops, challenged some fans to a fight, and managed only one catch for no yards.
I think it’s created a great buy-low spot.
Pickens is still the unquestioned leader of this receiving corps and plays for a players coach in Mike Tomlin, who knows Pickens remains his best offensive player.
He’s gone over 3.5 receptions in five of eight games with Wilson at QB this season and is in a decent matchup vs. a Ravens secondary he beat for 8 receptions and 89 yards in Week 11. If this price drops below -150, I'd likely think about playing the over on his yards instead as long as the total were under 55 yards.
Broncos at Bills (-8.5)—47.5 total
This is the biggest mismatch in the first round of the playoffs. That’s not reflected in the spread, but Denver’s resume is even more fraudulent than the Chargers’. Like Los Angeles, the Broncos were just 2-5 against playoff opponents during the regular season. However, one of their wins came last week against a Chiefs team that rested every player of merit. Their other win came against the Buccaneers all the way back in Week 3.
Even though the Broncos have exceeded expectations all season, they are simply not in the same weight class as the Bills. Buffalo has the better team, and the difference at quarterback is stark. Josh Allen has been a staple of the postseason over the past few seasons, while Bo Nix will be making his first career postseason start. Since 2003, QBs making their playoff debut are a dreadful 27-47 ATS (36.5%). That figure drops to 22-41-1 (34.9%) when facing an experienced playoff quarterback.
These two teams are also trending in opposite directions. While the Bills ended the season on a high note, knocking off teams like the Chiefs and Lions, the Broncos ended on a slump. They did manage to blow the doors off the Chiefs’ backups, but they lost games to the Chargers and Bengals in the two weeks prior. Those were big games with playoff implications, and the Broncos did not meet the challenge. The Bengals specifically torched them for 499 yards, and it wouldn’t be a shock if Allen did the same.
Ultimately, I have no problem laying the wood with Buffalo.
Bet: Bills -8.5 (-110)
Prop: Javonte Williams Over 2.5 receptions (+120; bet365)
- Projection: 3.0
This is another line that looks almost suspiciously low to me. The Broncos do love to rotate their RBs, but Javonte Williams has a clearly defined role in this offense as the long down and distance and pass-catching back thanks to his prowess in pass protection.
For the season, he posted 3+ receptions in nine of 17 games and saw good usage in the Broncos' closing game, catching three balls on four targets for 50 yards. Add in the fact that the Bills' coverage vs. RBs is lacking (second most receptions allowed to opposing RBs) and you have to love the prices on the over 2.5 receptions.
I’ll also be looking to ladder-bet Williams on his alternate yards and reception lines in this game.
Packers at Eagles (-4.5)—45.5 total
This is a rematch from the second game of the season. The Packers and Eagles squared off in Brazil, and now they’ll meet in Philly with a trip to the divisional round on the line.
While the Packers are the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs, they’re an extremely dangerous opponent. They have the fourth-shortest odds to win the conference, trailing only the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings. If not for playing in the toughest division in football, this is a team that could’ve very easily hosted a first-round matchup.
This is another game that saw some early line movement as well. The Eagles opened as just 3.5-point favorites but were quickly bet up to -4.5. It has even occasionally gotten to -5.5, but any time it gets above 4.5 the spread is pretty quickly bet back down.
That tells me that the sharps like the Packers at the current number, and I tend to agree. The Packers are a quality team, ranking in the top five in both yards per game and yards per game allowed. They also have a really good head coach in Matt LaFleur, who has historically excelled when getting points. He’s 22-11-1 ATS when getting points during the regular season, and he’s 2-1 in that split during the playoffs. The Packers managed to win outright as seven-point dogs last year vs. the Cowboys in the Wild Card round, and they almost upset the 49ers as 10.5-point underdogs. Don’t be surprised if history repeats itself.
Bet: Packers +4.5 (-110)
Prop: Jordan Love Over 4.5 rush yards
- Projection: 6.0
This is such a ridiculously low line, especially for a player in Jordan Love who can move quite well from the pocket when he needs to.
The Eagles' pass rush and defensive line is ferocious, which will likely lead to multiple broken pockets and chances for Love to scramble. You could also take the over on his 1.5 rush attempts, but this works fine as well. We have value showing on both overs at their current numbers.
Commanders at Buccaneers (-3.0)—50.5 total
This is another game where a first-time starter will be squaring off with an experienced veteran at quarterback. Jayden Daniels could very well be the future of the league, but it’s possible he’s going to have some growing pains in his first career playoff start.
That hasn’t seemed to deter bettors, with 72% of the early spread bets siding with Washington. The Commanders have also received the majority of the betting dollars, so the sportsbooks will need the Buccaneers on Sunday night.
Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) runs with the ball against the Carolina Panthers in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
This is the game that I’m most torn about personally. Both teams combine excellent offenses with shaky defenses, which makes them a bit volatile. However, I’ll take my chances with Baker Mayfield, who at least has some experience on the biggest stage. The Bucs could also be slightly undervalued after struggling more than expected last week vs. the Saints.
Bet: Buccaneers -3.0 (-115)
Props:
Baker Mayfield Over 238.5 passing yards (-114; FanDuel)
Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 INTs (-114; FanDuel)
- Projection: 248.0 yards / 0.8 INTs
With the Commanders being a very competitive opponent, I think we’re likely to get the full Baker Mayfield experience this week. He averaged 264 yards and just under 1.0 interception per game this season, and while the Buccaneers are favored, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' ability to strike fast should push Mayfield into plenty of dropbacks in this game.
I see value on both overs for Mayfield, who went for 240+ yards in four of his last five games and threw at least one INT in four of his last five games as well.
Vikings (-1.5) at Rams—47.0 total
The last game in the week could turn out to be the best. It’s the smallest spread, with the Vikings listed as just 1.5-point road favorites over the Rams.
This is another rematch from the regular season. The Rams and Vikings squared off in LA on Thursday Night Football in Week 8, with the Rams ultimately securing a 30-20 win.
That was the first game where the Rams had Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back from injury, and they were a completely different team with both in the lineup. They won eight of their final 11 games, and one of those losses came in Week 18 with the team playing the backups. They even managed to pick up a home win over the Bills, which was one of the most impressive wins for any team this season.
This is also the final game where we will have a playoff debutant taking on an experienced starter at quarterback. While it has been a magical season for Sam Darnold, he’s still had his ups and downs. Matthew Stafford has ample playoff experience—including a Super Bowl win—which could ultimately be the difference in what is expected to be a close game. I’ll take the Rams to pull off the upset.
Bet: Rams ML (+108)
Aaron Jones Under 14.5 carries (FanDuel; -108)
- Projection: 13.8
I took Aaron Jones to go under his carry total last week and it worked out swimmingly. The Vikings continue to give Cam Akers touches every week and have limited Jones to well under 60% of the team's carries in the last two games.
Maybe the Vikings' defense completely shuts down Matthew Stafford and Jones gets there, but as long as this total is over 14.0 I see it as a solid under. Los Angeles is the home team, has beaten Minnesota once already this season, and runs the ball extremely well, which should limit Jones’ touches.
If Sam Darnold doesn’t rebound, this one may hit easily once again.
