As usual, Saturday is a great day for baseball. There are 15 games currently on the docket, with the action evenly split between the afternoon and evening. The weather conditions look good for each contest, so we should have a full slate to choose from.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Saturday’s slate. 

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Saturday, May 25

Texas Rangers ML at Minnesota Twins (+110; DraftKings)

It’s been a bit of a disappointing start for the defending champs. They’re sitting at just 24-28, while their offense has dipped to 14th in runs per game after finishing third last year. The good news is that they’re still just three games behind the Mariners in the wide-open AL West, where all five teams are separated by just 6.5 games.

The Rangers have clearly been unlucky this season on the offensive side. Their xwOBA is higher than their actual mark, and they’ve been particularly unlucky of late. They have just a .213 BABIP as a team over the past seven days, so they seem like a prime progression candidate moving forward.

Perhaps that will start Saturday vs. the Twins. They’ll be taking on Chris Paddack, who owns a 4.20 xERA through his first nine starts. Most of his Statcast metrics also stand out as subpar, particularly his 10.3% barrel rate (15th percentile).

The Rangers simply have too much offensive talent to continue slumping forever. I’ll take my chances with their moneyline at +110.

Seattle Mariners-Washington Nationals F5 Under 4.5 (+100, DraftKings)

Saturday’s matchup between the Mariners and Nats features an excellent pitching matchup. The Mariners will turn to Logan Gilbert, who has some of the nastiest offerings in the game. He ranks third in Stuff+ among qualified starters, trailing only flamethrowers Jared Jones and Hunter Greene.

His traditional metrics are also solid. He has posted a 3.20 ERA and a 3.45 xERA, and he allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his first eight outings. He’s hit a bit of a skid recently, but his three earned runs in his past two starts are still passable.

On the other side, Trevor Williams has been a revelation for the Nationals. His ERA currently sits at 2.35, while his 3.33 xERA ranks in the 71st percentile. Not too shabby for a guy the Nationals scooped up for two years and $14M this offseason.

Neither of these offenses has been particularly potent against right-handed pitchers, either. The Mariners rank 19th in wRC+, while the Nationals are 23rd. Add it all up, and runs should be at a premium early.

More MLB Bets for Saturday, May 25

Padres ML vs. Yankees (-116)

The Yankees’ offense has been on a heater recently, so fading them feels like stepping in front of a moving train. However, the Padres’ offense is also capable of doing some damage, and they’ll have a clear edge on the mound on Saturday. Dylan Cease has pitched to a 3.14 xERA with some of the best strikeout metrics in baseball, while Marcus Stroman has a 4.62 xERA. The Padres are also at home, so -116 feels too light.

Walker Buehler Under 5.5 strikeouts (-135)

Buehler is coming off seven punchouts against the Reds in his last outing, but I’m skeptical he can do it again on Saturday. He missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 with arm injuries, so the Dodgers are going to ease him back into action. Buehler’s strikeout metrics also haven’t been particularly impressive, with his 22.8% strikeout rate representing a significant decrease from his pre-injury prime. This matchup vs. the Reds will take place at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball. All things considered, six strikeouts feels like too much to ask.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 0-4 (-2.634 units)
  • Season: 98-113-6 (-17.88 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.