The MLB All-Star break is right around the corner. Unlike in other sports, baseball will basically go right up until the actual All-Star game. The teams will play on Friday and this weekend, with the Home Run Derby following immediately on Monday. The All-Star game will take place on Tuesday, and the teams get back to their regularly scheduled contests on Friday. It’s just another reason why the baseball schedule is such a grind.

This Friday features a full slate with 15 games to choose from. Each contest will start at 6:40 p.m. ET or later, so it’s a great evening to watch – and bet on – some baseball.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for Friday’s slate.

MLB BETS TODAY – PICKS FOR FRIDAY, JULY 12

New York Yankees ML at Baltimore Orioles (-125; BetMGM)

I’ve been fading the Yankees for a while now, and for the most part, it has worked. They’re 6-17 over their past 23 games and have relinquished the AL East lead to the Orioles. Their lead in the Wild Card is also precarious, so this team is going to need to turn things around over the second half.

Fortunately, they’ll have their ace on the bump on Friday. Gerrit Cole will make his fifth start of the season after missing the early part of the year with an injury. Cole has yet to look like an ace (6.75 ERA; 5.90 xERA), but he won the AL Cy Young Award just last season. He’s going to figure things out eventually, and when he does, he should return to being one of the best pitchers in baseball.

While the Yankees slump has gotten most of the attention, it’s not like the Orioles are playing great, either. Their offense has slipped to 18th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 14 days, and they’re 27th over the past week. This could ultimately be the perfect spot for Cole to get his season on track.

Additionally, the Yankees’ offense has a great matchup vs. Cade Povich. His ERA sits at 6.51 through his first six MLB starts, and he’s posted some of the worst strikeout metrics in baseball. He also ranks in the first percentile in barrel rate, which is not a formula for success when you’re surrendering a lot of contact.

Ultimately, you only get so many opportunities to back a pitcher like Cole at -125. I’m taking advantage.

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (-140; Caesars)

Friday’s matchup between the Mariners and Angels features one of the most intriguing pitching matchups on the slate. The Angels will send Tyler Anderson to the bump, while the Mariners will counter with Brandon Woo.

On paper, Anderson is having a terrific season. He was named to the second All-Star game of his career, and he ranks fourth among pitchers in bWAR. However, Anderson has been insanely fortunate. His xERA is nearly two runs higher than his actual mark, and he’s thrived due to a minuscule .229 BABIP. He’s also stranded 83.8% of opposing baserunners, which is well above average. In other words, Anderson is poised for some massive regression over the second half of the year.

On the other side, Woo has the peripherals to support his elite numbers. His 2.17 xERA puts him in the 99th percentile, and he’s emerged as one of the best control pitchers in baseball. He’s walked just 2.0% of opposing batters, while he’s second among pitchers with at least 40 innings in Location+.

The Mariners have the clear edge on the bump, and they’re also a significantly better team offensively and out of the bullpen. -140 is a steal.

MORE MLB BETS FOR FRIDAY, JULY 12

Padres ML vs. Braves (+106)

Neither of the pitchers in this contest inspires a ton of confidence, but Randy Vazquez has shown signs of improvement for the Padres of late. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five starts, and he’s limited the opponent to one or fewer in three of them.

The sharps are all over the Padres in this spot, with San Diego getting 56% of the dollars on just 28% of the bets (per the Action Network).

Cole Ragans Over 7.5 strikeouts (-122)

Over 7.5 is a huge number for strikeout purposes, but I think it’s still probably too low in this case. Ragans has lived up to the billing this season after breaking out for the Royals in the second half of 2023, and he’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. His 29.7% strikeout rate puts him in the 90th percentile, and he already has eight starts with at least eight punchouts.

The Red Sox are also the ideal matchup for Ragans, ranking dead last in strikeout rate vs. southpaws by a wide margin. Laddering Ragans up to double-digit strikeouts is another potential way to play this.

2024 MLB BETS RECORD

  • Yesterday: 3-1 (+1.075 units)
  • Season: 172-177-9 (-11.62 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.