The day after the Fourth of July is always an awkward one. The fireworks are done, the indigestion has set in, and we all have to go back to work.

Fortunately, we do have a full slate of MLB action to help deal with the pain. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, with 14 of those contests starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Friday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Friday, July 5

New York Mets-Pittsburgh Pirates F5 Under 4.0 (-120; BetMGM)

The Mets have been on a heater recently, but their bats cooled down significantly in their series vs. the Nationals. They managed just one hit on Thursday, resulting in a 1-0 shutout loss.

Things aren’t going to get any easier for them on Friday. They’ll have to face Paul Skenes, who is already one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s pitched to a 2.06 ERA across his nine starts, and his 2.72 xERA puts him in the 93rd percentile. He’s also been dominant from a strikeout standpoint, so opposing batters have had little chance against him.

The good news for the Mets is that they’ll have their best starter on the bump. Luis Severino has completely revived his career in his first year with the Mets. He’s pitched to a 3.42 ERA, and he’s allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his past seven starts. The Pirates’ offense has been one of the worst in baseball against right-handers this season, so Severino should be able to match Skenes in this matchup.

Ultimately, I’m going to be playing the first-five under instead of the full game. The Mets bullpen has been an issue for most of the season, and they’re still playing one man short with Edwin Diaz suspended. The Pirates bullpen has also had their issues, so I’d rather focus on the starters instead.

St. Louis Cardinals ML at Washington Nationals (-155; DraftKings)

Friday’s contest between the Cardinals and Nationals is a pretty big mismatch, which is reflected in the -155 price tag. Still, I think the gap between these squads is even larger than the current odds suggest.

The Cardinals will send Sonny Gray to the bump, who is having another fantastic season. He owns a 2.98 ERA, and his 3.14 xERA isn’t far behind. He’s also one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball, with his 31.3% strikeout rate ranking in the 93rd percentile.

On the other side, the Nationals will hand the ball to Patrick Corbin. He owns a 5.49 ERA, which somehow undersells how bad he is. His xERA is nearly a full run worse (6.48), while opposing batters are making hard contact on 50.0% of their balls in play. If you can think of a relevant pitching category, Corbin is going to be near the bottom of it.

The Cardinals have had their issues against southpaws this season, but they’re starting to show signs of life in that split. They’re up to 18th in wRC+ vs. left-handers over the past 14 days, and while that’s nothing to get excited about, it’s a significant improvement from their season-long ranking of 29th. I personally think this line should be closer to -200, so I’m happy to grab the Cardinals at -155.

More MLB Bets for Friday, July 5

Red Sox ML at Yankees (+120)

The Yankees are in an absolute freefall. After getting swept by the Reds, they’ve now lost 13 of their past 17 games. They’ll start a new series with the Red Sox on Friday, and maybe a visit from their biggest rivals will wake them from their slumber. However, they’re going to have to face Tanner Houck in Game 1, who has been outstanding on the mound this season. He gives the Red Sox a strong pitching edge over Nestor Cortes, and with the way the Yankees are playing at the moment, I’ll gladly take +120 with the road team.

Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts (+116)

Aaron Nola hasn’t piled up the punchouts for most of the season, ranking in the 57th percentile for strikeout rate. However, he’s trending in the right direction. He’s coming off a nine-strikeout performance in his last outing, and he has 21 strikeouts over his last 19.2 innings. He’s in a good spot to keep the strikeouts coming on Friday. The Braves’ offense has lost some luster without Ronald Acuna, and they have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 30 days.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 1-3 (-1.185 units)
  • Season: 158-165-8 (-12.575 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.