Friday is always a great day for baseball. All 30 teams are slated to be in action, with all but one contest taking place in the evening. There are some potential weather concerns to keep your eye on – particularly on the East Coast – but no postponements feel imminent.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Friday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Friday, June 14

Milwaukee Brewers ML vs. Cincinnati Reds (-145; BetMGM)

Hunter Greene is an enigma. On paper, he should be one of the best starters in baseball. He possesses one of the fastest fastballs in baseball, and the rest of his stuff is pretty nasty too: He ranks second among qualified starters in Stuff+.

That said, he rarely lives up to expectations. His ERA sits at an underwhelming 3.61, and it’s trending in the wrong direction. He’s allowed nine earned runs over his past two starts, and he continues to struggle with free passes. He walked seven batters in those contests, and his walk rate puts him in the 27th percentile for the season.

Freddy Peralta checks a lot of the same boxes as Greene for the Brewers – excellent stuff, occasionally questionable control – but they’re simply the better team overall. They have the better offense, the better bullpen, and the better defense. They’re fourth in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, while the Reds are all the way down in 26th. Milwaukee has found a way to win games all season, and I like they’re chances of doing it again on Friday.

Oakland Athletics ML at Minnesota Twins (+152; FanDuel)

This contest will feature a battle of pitching prospects. Simeon Woods Richardson will get the ball for the Twins, while the A’s will counter with Mitch Spence. Neither pitcher is a particularly exciting prospect, but both players have had success so far this season. Woods Richardson has pitched to a 2.84 ERA across 10 starts, while Spence has a 3.12 ERA in six starts for the A’s.

As good as Woods Richardson has been, I’m expecting a bit of regression. He’s gotten lucky in terms of BABIP (.265) and strand rate (80.0%), and his xFIP is above 4.00. None of his advanced metrics stand out as particularly impressive, so he doesn’t profile as a frontline starter moving forward.

The Twins are undoubtedly the better team, but the A’s haven’t been nearly as bad as expected. Their offense is only slightly below average against right-handers, while they have one of the best closers in the game. They’re live to pull off the upset.

More MLB Bets for Friday, June 14

Phillies-Orioles Under 7.5 (-114)

Runs should be at a premium with Ranger Suarez and Kyle Bradish on the mound in Baltimore. Suarez has been outstanding for the Phillies this season, pitching to a 1.81 ERA and 2.62 xERA in 13 starts. He doesn’t look like an ace pitcher – his fastball averages just 91.3 miles per hour – but he does everything you need to do to be successful. Bradish was outstanding in terms of Stuff+ last season, and he’s been dominant so far this year. His 2.18 xERA puts him in the 98th percentile, and he has some of the best Statcast data in all of baseball. Both of these teams can hit, but I expect the pitchers to have the upper hand.

MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 strikeouts (-155)

MacKenzie Gore has had a strong season for the Nationals, and he’s a solid strikeout pitcher. His 27.6% strikeout rate puts him in the 80th percentile, and he has 81 punchouts in 68 innings. However, the Marlins are surprisingly one of the toughest teams for southpaws to strike out. They’re 22nd in strikeout rate vs. left-handers, so Gore could have a bit less success than usual. He’s gone under seven strikeouts in seven of his 13 starts, so this prop feels one strikeout too high.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-2 (+0.25 units)
  • Season: 138-139-6 (-8.07 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.